Travis Kelce will be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame immediately once the five-year waiting period is up following his retirement from the Kansas City Chiefs. He's one of the greatest tight ends to ever play with three Super Bowl rings and four All-Pro nods. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, though, that five-year waiting period could begin as soon as next offseason.
Rumors of Kelce's retirement have been circling after the past two Super Bowls for Kansas City, which would indicate they'll come true sooner rather than later. As such, there has already been plenty of talk about the Chiefs finding a Kelce replacement or, perhaps better quantified, a successor.
Noah Gray might not be more than a high-end TE2, which we've seen when Kelce has missed time. Jared Wiley is an unknown commodity after missing his rookie season, and the options on the roster dry up there. Subsequently, there has been a lot of pushing toward the Chiefs targeting another potential replacement in the 2025 NFL Draft. One name keeps coming up in those discussions, especially less than two weeks from the draft.
Miami tight end Elijah Arroyo has been a big riser in the draft process after a breakout 2024 season with the Hurricanes. With his alignment at more than half of his snaps in the slot, you can see why he'd be viewed as a replacement for Kelce, which is why he was mentioned by Nate Taylor of The Athletic as someone to fit that mold and why CBS Sports draft expert Mike Renner sent him to Kansas City in his latest mock draft.
But there are also signs as to why the Chiefs should be worried about banking on Arroyo to be the successor to Kelce.
Elijah Arroyo replacing Travis Kelce should be buyer beware for the Chiefs
Arroyo spent four years at Miami but was the starter for just one season. After totaling just 11 catches for 163 yards in 23 previous games, he broke out with 35 catches for 590 yards and seven touchdowns this past season. That's impressive, without question, but it also adds to the age-old draft question of whether that was the new norm or the outlier.
Late breakouts among college prospects is a terrifying proposition, particularly when the stats look like Arroyo's. It's one thing to wait for your opportunity and then take advantage of it, but there are often more signs and indicators earlier in a college career than what he showed at Miami. That's especially true for players who go on to enjoy great NFL careers. With Arroyo, he did battle a knee injury early in his career, which was definitely a factor that's worth considering. Having said that, it still raises some concerns with only one year of meaningful production.
Those concerns and questions about Arroyo's college career in its entirety are also evident in glowing scouting reports. The Athletic draft expert Dane Brugler has Arroyo as his No. 4 tight end in the draft class and a second round grade. However, he also notes concerns about Arroyo's route-running, his ability to play through contact and in an NFL offense with less space than a college Air-Raid system, and as a blocker.
In replacing Kelce, I'm less concerned about him as a blocker as I am the other areas in need of development (a kind way of saying he's not pro-caliber in those areas right now). While he can be a vertical threat, what has made Kelce so great in the prime of his career is his ability to dice up the intermediate levels of the field. The evolution of the Chiefs offense has become less predicated on deep passing and more focused on that. Arroyo wouldn't necessarily fill that void that will be present when Kelce leaves in the passing offense then based on what he's shown to this point.
This isn't to say that Arroyo can't become that type of player. After all, the knee injury reasonably has put him behind in some of the nuances of the position and developing those traits. Furthermore, he should have a year, at least, behind Kelce with less pressure when he can put in the work to become better in those areas.
What it is to say, though, is that Arroyo isn't necessarily a set-it-and-forget it replacement for Travis Kelce. That seems obvious given all of the factors of play, at least to me, but Chiefs fans should hope that Brett Veach and the organization recognize that as well.