Chiefs' ref conspiracy is backed by cold, hard facts, no matter what Patrick Mahomes says

When Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered the first of their two playoff losses at the hands of Tom Brady, fans at Arrowhead Stadium were convinced that the referee was to blame. The Chiefs didn’t lose because defensive end Dee Ford was lined up offsides, they’d argue, but because the officiating crew favored Brady, the NFL’s golden boy.

Now, the shoe is on the other foot. Mahomes has assumed Brady’s vacated throne, and Kansas City fans are certain that other teams lose because they simply aren’t as disciplined. This time, they’re right. The Chiefs haven’t beaten teams nearly as often as their opponents have beaten themselves. Regardless, poor officiating certainly benefited the Chiefs in their divisional-round victory over the Houston Texans.

Houston out-gained Kansas City by more than 100 yards, but two questionable 15-yard penalties helped Kansas City advance to the AFC Championship Game. The seemingly-imbalanced officiating led to harsh criticisms from Texans players and fans alike. 

Chiefs postseason penalty streak feeds into conspiracy narratives

Mahomes pushed back against the narrative that Kansas City receives favorable calls from officials, according to ESPN. However, a limited sample size suggests that the Chiefs have benefited from postseason penalties at an unprecedented rate.

The Chiefs have played 11 straight playoff games since 2021 without committing more penalties than their opponents, per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis. That’s the longest streak by any team in the last 30 years. The only teams with longer streaks were the 1970-82 Miami Dolphins (18) and 1984-91 Denver Broncos (12), per Douglas Clawson of CBS Sports. 

Since 2021, Kansas City has committed more penalties than their opponents in 25 of 68 regular season games (37 percent). Clawson also noted that the Chiefs have the second-worst penalty yards differential in the regular season, but the best in the postseason.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the Chiefs are receiving special treatment, however. The Chiefs have been more disciplined than their opponents in recent years — their last two Super Bowls were gifted to them with sloppy mistakes. Kansas City has also played a significant portion of their postseason games at home, and the raucous crowd at Arrowhead Stadium could be responsible for causing opponents’ penalties. The difference in sample size between regular season games and postseason games could also explain the contrast — 11 postseason games aren’t enough to draw conclusions.

In the fourth quarters and overtime of one-score games over the past two seasons, the Chiefs don’t appear to have any officiating advantage over their opponents. In those critical situations, the Chiefs have been penalized 47 times (307 yards) and their opponents have been penalized 48 times (304 yards), per The Athletic’s Mike Sando. 

Mahomes’ on-field antics are probably more concerning. Quarterbacks have been afforded additional protection by recent rule changes, and the 29-year-old has taken advantage of those luxuries by intentionally attempting to force defenders into additional penalties.

“The only flops I’ve seen better than him are Rodney Dangerfield in 'Back to School,'” one opposing coach told The Athletic. 

The Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. The winner will advance to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.