Grade the take: Have the Cincinnati Reds built a contender?

The Cincinnati Reds have had a whirlwind of an offseason. They added Brady Singer, Wade Miley, Gavin Lux, Taylor Rogers, Austin Hays and Jose Trevino. They lost Jonathan India who has been a key part of their team for years, but with Matt McClain returning, his spot in the lineup shouldn’t see a dip in productivity. And let’s not forget the crown jewel in the dugout, Terry Francona, who will take the helm for Cincinnati. Now, it seems Nick Krall is done making moves.

Because of these improvements, a few outlets have predicted the Reds will become division champs or at least a Wild Card team. But do these arguments hold any water? Let’s investigate.

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Are the Reds ready to contend? Grading the take

The argument in favor of the Reds making the postseason is laid out by Jeff Carr of Sports Illustrated. When discussing the new additions as well as the returns of McClain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Carr had this to write:

“I am bullish on the Reds chances to make good on this latest chapter in the long rebuild by the river and finally make the playoffs in 2025. They have a very good shot to compete for the NL Central division title, or at the very least for a wild card spot. With a healthy pitching staff, they may even make some noise and advance in the playoffs.”

Carr admits the Reds didn’t get “substantially better.” To start, none of the players the Reds acquired are gamechangers on any level. As a matter of fact, the PECOTA projections indicate a last place finish for the Reds. However, the NL Central is historically a weak division. Thus, a plethora of small improvements go a long way. So, perhaps the PECOTA projections are filled with rubbish, but we shall see.

The Reds finished in fourth place last season ahead of the Pirates. The Pirates haven’t done much to improve this offseason. So, it is likely the Reds can hold their own against Pittsburgh. The Cardinals and Brewers meanwhile have grown weaker. The Cardinals have done nothing to improve and have only lost strength. The Reds can likely zoom past them next season.

But the Brewers are in a different spot. Their roster is still filled with talent and the addition of prospect Caleb Durbin from the Yankees offers plenty to be excited for. The Brewers have won the division for the past two years. Even after the losses of Devin Williams and Willy Adames, the Brew Crew will be hard to top. But that brings us to the elephant in the room – or the division in this case.

The Cubs finished in second, 10 games behind the Brewers in 2024. But they’ve replaced Cody Bellinger with Kyle Tucker in addition to adding solid bullpen arms in Ryan Pressly, Eli Morgan and Cody Poteet. They also have an abundance of young talent ready to contribute next season. Assuming the Reds are going to do better than the Cubs or the Brewers may be mistake. But the Reds do have untapped potential.

We have yet to see the minor-league success from Noelvi Marte or CES translate to the majors. If the Reds’ young players that have underperformed their expectations and fell injured can breakout next season, this could shake up the division, especially if McClain begins where he left off before his injury. But if they don’t clinch the division, Cincy’s chances of making the postseason are almost non-existent.

Assuming everything is as it was in 2024 (LAD, MIL, and PHI taking the divisions), the Reds will have the Braves, Diamondbacks, Mets, Cubs, Giants and Padres to compete with for a Wild Card spot. This makes their case kind of iffy, but let’s not underestimate the Reds’ emerging young stars that will be led by Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene.

Grade: B