We made it through Zurich week on the PGA Tour by the grace of everything holy (though, that was admittedly a fun finish). But now we're onto TPC Craig ranch for the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Scottie Scheffler enters the tournament as the wildly heavy favorite but we're going to be looking further down the board for our value at this year's Byron Nelson.
Approach play at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson will be key, but one of the biggest things to keep in mind is that long drivers who lack accuracy are live here. TPC Craig Ranch is a wild, long ballpark, but there's not a lot of substantial trouble. So if you're looking at a big bopper who can put up a lot of birdies, this is the spot to use them at.
With a light card last week, we still came out with slight profit. Now we're back to the golf we know, though, which means we're diving into our CJ Cup Byron Nelson predictions for a winner, Top 10 finish and also a look at some sleepers. Let's unpack these PGA Tour expert picks.
Golf betting record in 2025: 15-55-0, +39.935 Units (+0.15 Units at Zurich) | One and Done Total for 2025: $10,225,556 (Greyserman/Echavarria at Zurich, $41,400)
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CJ Cup Byron Nelson golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done
Pick to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Jake Knapp (+5500, DraftKings)
If we're talking about bombers, Jake Knapp is obviously going to be come part of the conversation. After playing well to finish third at the Zurich with Frankie Capan III, he comes to a spot where he was solo eighth last year. The approach play has been good, gaining in eight of his last 10 starts, but he has been inconsistent. But Knapp is the type of guy that simply takes advantage of the right ballpark and TPC Craig Ranch is exactly what that is for his game.
Top 10 pick for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Alejandro Tosti (+650)
We're going with a bit of a longshot for a Top 10 but Alejandro Tosti just fits the bill. He's third in this field over the last 20 rounds in SG: Approach and first in the field in SG: Approach from 200+ yards out over that same span. Combine that with his elite distance off the tee, he's primed to score low and take a bit out of this golf course. He missed the cut at the Zurich but finished T5, T12 and T2 in his last three solo starts. So, I think he stays hot without a teammate this week.
One and Done pick for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Jake Knapp
Knapp or Tosti would be good options here, but I'm just rolling with our winner pick. He's difficult to predict when he's going to go off, but this feels like one of the safest spots you can take him with how it fits his game.
Sleeper picks to watch at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Matti Schmid to finish Top 20 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (+320)
Outside of a T9 finish at Puntacana, Matti Schmid's finishes haven't indicated how well he's been playing. He's actually 13th in the field in SG: Approach over the last 20 rounds, but his off the tee and around the green numbers have sunk him a bit. That being said, his problem with the driver has been accuracy. Moreover, this course doesn't offer much of a test with the short game or with driving accuracy. Given all that, I'm going to take him to start stringing together quality finishes.
Rico Hoey to finish Top 20 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (+275)
The inconsistency of Rico Hoey is maddening, but where he hasn't been struggling is with the ball striking. He's third in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green in the field over the last 20 rounds, with most of that coming with pure ball-striking. His short game can be a disaster but, when it's not, he's reeled off two Top 15 finishes in his last three solo starts. With a big ballpark at TPC Craig Ranch, he has a prime opportunity to show off his skill set.