4 bold predictions for Guardians vs. Yankees in ALCS

After a long, exhausting ALDS against a recently burgeoning Tigers’ team, the Cleveland Guardians have sent their adversaries on a one-way trip back to Motown and earned themselves a trip to New York. Unlike the Tigers and the Guardians that went the distance, the Yankees dispatched the Royals in four games. Both teams are coming into the ALCS looking for redemption having missed the postseason altogether last year. The Yankees last played a World Series game in 2009 when they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in six games. For Cleveland, it was 2016 when they were dealt a defeat at the hands of the Cubs in seven.

With the two top teams in the AL ready to clash, it’s shaping up to be a dramatic series. This season, the two have met in six games, the Yankees managing to take four of them. But who has the edge in this series? Let’s make four predictions based on the facts.

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4. Expect a bullpen duel

The Guardians have what is arguably the best bullpen in baseball. In the regular season, Cleveland posted a 2.57 bullpen ERA, the lowest of any major league bullpen by a wide margin. In the ALDS, Guardians’ manager Stephen Vogt made it clear; his strategy will make full use of the bullpen.

The Guardians have, thus far, used three starters: Tanner Bibee, Alex Cobb, and Matthew Boyd. Each starter has pitched a combined 18.1 innings, the longest outing being Tanner Bibee’s 4.2 inning start in game 1. And why not? When he has the MLB’s best bullpen at his disposal, Vogt is justified in using it to it’s full extent.

The Yankees, on the other hand, don’t have such a prominent bullpen. However, they seemed to have found a groove. In four games against Kansas City, the Yankees’ bullpen has refused to give up an earned run. Clay Holmes, the once shaky closer, has been dominant since losing that role.

Yankees’ starters have struggled mightily on the mound and were unable to go deep in all but one outing when Gerrit Cole threw 7 innings to send the Yankees to the ALCS. Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt have thrown a combined 20.1 innings, 12 of which were Cole’s.

Should these trends continue, the bullpen will be playing an enormous role on both sides.

3. The big bats will wake up, like Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge is in the midst of a prolonged slump. In 2022, Judge went 5-for-36 in the postseason with only two walks. This includes going 4-for-20 against the Guardians with two home runs and one walk. This season, Judge is 2-for-13 in the postseason, but he has drawn five walks giving him a respectable .389 on-base percentage. But the circumstances are different.

In the 2022 regular season, Judge went 4-for-17 against Cleveland’s pitching staff with two home runs. This season, he went 9-for-24 with an astounding five home runs. Judge’s success against Cleveland this season is very encouraging and bodes well for his postseason prospects. Even if he doesn't return to his spectacular regular season form, it may be reasonable to believe he’ll still deposit a few balls into the seats.

While the focus has been on Judge, Juan Soto has flown under the radar because he has four hits. However, Soto currently maintains the same on-base percentage as Judge. While not bad, it is evident that we are yet to see Soto at his best this postseason. With both of New York’s marquee sluggers still homer-less, it is only a matter of time.

On the Cleveland side, Christmas came early. The Guardians opened the largest present under the tree which delivered them a much-needed power hitter, filling the one glaring weak spot in their otherwise solid roster. In 179 at-bats, Jhonkensy Noel hit 13 long balls giving him an amazing 13.77 at-bat to home run ratio. But so far, Noel has produced nothing but a Silent Night. Noel is 0-for-13 with a walk. He has not yet faced the Yankees, but regardless, his bad stretch can’t get much worse.

Both Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez have also struggled going 4-for-20 and 3-for-16 this postseason respectively. Of the two, only Ramirez has a home run. Naylor and Ramirez have had success against the Yankees in the past both in the regular season and in the postseason. With New York’s starters providing uneven performances, Cleveland’s sluggers will have a valuable opportunity to pounce.

2. Every game will be a nail biter

The Yankees starters may be somewhat wild at times, but to his credit, manager Aaron Boone hasn’t let a game wander out of his team’s reach. In this postseason, the Yankees own a better team ERA than the Guardians. As mentioned earlier, the Yankee relievers have not surrendered an earned run.

Even so, both relief corps seem well matched. This series could very easily come down to how both teams fare against the starters and how their managers play the bullpen. Cleveland’s bullpen is likely to take more wear and tear given the fact that Vogt expends his relievers quite aggressively. Boone prefers to ride his starters as far as they’ll take him. We can expect the Yankee relievers to be better rested.

On the scoring side, the Yankees scored below four runs in three out of four games against the Royals. The Guardians scored five and above in three of five games against the Tigers. However, the Guardians were shutout twice by the Tigers. The Yankee’s outscored the Royals 14-12. The Guardians outscored the Tigers 19-13.

Should both teams continue their excellence on the rubber, every game will be tight. We are bound to witness nail biters. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the entire series result in close games.

1. Yankees win in six

Regardless of how the starting rotation does, New York’s bullpen seems more than capable of holding their opponents in place.

While we’ve focused mainly on pitching excellence and hitting struggles, the Yankees’ offense isn’t something to be underestimated. One accomplishment that may fly under the radar is their 27 walks over the span of only four games. The Yankees have proven they will make their opponents pitch to them. Rather than chasing and whiffing as they have done in the past, the Yankee hitters have adopted a more disciplined approach. In addition, the bats of Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton have blasted back to life after long, arduous slumps. Should Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, or Jazz Chisholm Jr, if only one, start to hit as well as they are capable of, the Yankees will have a good series.

Despite the shortage of runs, the Yankee offense has been considerably better than that of Cleveland’s. New York’s .696 postseason OPS outpaces the Guardians’ .638 by a noticeable margin.

As good as the Guardians have been, they were shutout twice in the ALDS. If it weren’t for their trade deadline acquisition of Lane Thomas who scored nine of their postseason runs, Cleveland would likely have made an exit from the postseason. If the Guardians are going to win, it is essential that Thomas continues his torrid stretch, the pitching staff performs well against New York’s sluggers, and that Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor return to form.

Unless the Guardians can manage this, their chances of returning to the World Series this year are very slim.