After the trip down to Mexico and Brian Campbell's true Cinderella story victory, we're heading to the 2025 Cognizant Classic as the PGA Tour begins the Florida swing. PGA National is often one of the toughest tests of the year for a short course with a premium on ball-striking also being affected by weather and wind. You have to love that, especially with a much better field this year than in recent itereations.
We need to dial in when it comes to our PGA Tour expert picks as we've been ice-cold. Golf betting is a long game, no doubt, but it'd be great to see some green on the ledger sooner rather than later. Luckily, we've seen PGA National and the Cognizant Classic (or Honda, if you prefer), which should give us a better blueprint than last week for a strong showing. That's what we need in a big way.
So let's get into it, our 2025 Cognizant Classic expert picks with predictions for the winner, Top 10, sleepers and so much more for the week at PGA National that golf fans should be excited for.
Golf betting record in 2025: 5-26-0, -12.175 Units (-3 Units at Mexico) | One and Done Total for 2025: $3,059,552 (Kurt Kitayama at Mexico, $0)
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Cognizant Classic golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done
Pick to win the Cognizant Classic: Daniel Berger (+2800, FanDuel)
Ultimately, I can't ignore Daniel Berger coming into the Cognizant Classic, which is something that I share with John Schwarb for the SI Golf Betting Roundtable this week. To start his 2025 season, he's had a couple missed cuts but his other three starts are all T21 or better, including tying for runner-up in Phoenix and finishing 12th at the Genesis. When it comes to withstanding conditions combined with being a Top 20 player on SG: Approach, bogey avoidance, approaches from 150-175 yards, and a positive putter on Bermuda who's been rolling it well overall, Berger seems primed to break back through with a win. This is the perfect spot for him to accomplish exactly that.
Top 10 pick for the Cognizant Classic: Kurt Kitayama (+375)
Being on Kurt Kitayama last week burned me with a missed cut but it was the old bugaboo, the short game, that got him. He gained 2.74 strokes tee-to-green over two rounds but los 4.77 putting. He gained strokes putting in every Florida swing and Bermuda green event last year, though, so perhaps that turns around. Given how well he's striking the ball and has played in Florida, I think he's in the right form with his ball-striking to pop again soon and the change of grass could be just what the doctor ordered.
One and Done pick for the Cognizant Classic: Shane Lowry
Having already burned Berger and Kitayama in One and Done, we're going with Shane Lowry this week. I don't foresee wanting use him much in any signature events and his history at PGA National has been stellar. He's finished Top 5 in his last three starts there and has never missed a cut. Throw in a runner-up finish at Pebble Beach just a couple weeks ago, I love where he's at to have a big-time week at the Cognizant.
Sleepers to watch at the Cognizant Classic
Top 20 sleeper pick for the Cognizant Classic (0.9 Units): Lucas Glover (+225)
Though it's been an up-and-down start at times, the finishes when Lucas Glover has made the cut have been impressive with a T21 at Sony, T3 at Pebble Beach and even a T31 at the Genesis at Torrey Pines, a course that shouldn't fit him at all. The finishes and ball-striking at Sony and Pebble Beach stand out, though, given that PGA National could be a similar challenge. Though he finished just T35 at the Cognizant last year, he was T19 in 2021, T4 in 2019 and T17 in 2018. This course suits what he does well and he's playing good enough golf to get us to a Top 20 this week.
Sleeper to win the Cognizant Classic (0.1 Units): Joel Dahmen (+12000, FanDuel)
While you don't love a missed cut at Phoenix, it's sandwiched between a T9 at Farmers and T6 at Mexico for Joel Dahemn. His ball-striking has been the difference-maker, gaining 3.17 strokes on approach at Farmers and 4.87 strokes on approach in Mexico. His short game can be a worry but he's striking the ball well enough that one good week on the greens could put him in the winner's circle. So, at 120/1, that's too much value for me to ultimately overlook.