Ranking head coaches by hottest seat with Billy Napier deemed safe by Florida

This is going to be a very interesting trip on the coaching carousel this year. While there are five openings across college football (East Carolina, Fresno State, Rice, Southern Miss, Utah State), they are all in the Group of Five. While some people suspected that Florida head coach Billy Napier was sitting on the hottest seat in the Power Four, that was proven to not be the case, as he is now safe.

Eventually, the first domino in the Power Four is going to drop. The first vacancy will immediately become the best job on the market. While we may see some traditional powers open up at places like Auburn, Michigan, Oklahoma and USC, I would not be shocked if Hugh Freeze, Sherrone Moore, Brent Venables and Lincoln Riley got another year to prove themselves, as Napier has set the precedent.

What I want to do today as the first window of games starts to wrap up on this college football Saturday is to take a look at which coaches are on the hot seat and try to figure out if they are getting fired or not. Again, every job is different, coming with a different set of expectations, so keep that in mind. I do not know if any of these coaches on the hot seat are going to get fired in December.

Let's start with a likable head coach who will absolutely need to get his SEC team to a bowl game.

5. Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman

Arkansas is 5-4 on the year and on a bye this weekend. The Hogs need to win one of their final three games to achieve bowl eligibility. While anything can happen in a rivalry game, I do not like the Razorbacks' chances of beating Texas next week. Although they should have no issue with Louisiana Tech in two weeks, you do not want to leave it to chance when it comes to Missouri at season's end.

College football is better with Sam Pittman firmly a part of it. I initially had Arkansas going something like 3-9 to start the season. While I feel putting him on the hot seat feels wrong, others are a bit more open to the idea of moving on from him. The Hogs have a huge SEC win over Tennessee, but the Oklahoma State loss is looking worse and worse by the week. Simply put, Arkansas cannot lose out.

For how bad Arkansas was before Pittman got there, I would under no circumstances fire him after a bowl season. It was not that long ago that the Hogs were not winning any conference games. While hiring Bobby Petrino as his offensive coordinator was the epitome of controversial, if it helps the Hogs go bowling, I will allow it. Right now, I have a hard time seeing Arkansas moving on from Pittman.

The only way Arkansas would be right to fire Pittman is if the Razorbacks finish the season at 5-7.

4. Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda

The Baylor Bears are in an eerily similar situation as the Arkansas Razorbacks. Along with Billy Napier, you could argue that Dave Aranda was sitting on the other hot seat at the start of the year with Sam Pittman. Baylor is 5-4 on the year. As it is with Arkansas, I would have a hard time firing a head coach who leads his team to a bowl game, even though I did project the Bears to go 6-6 this season anyway.

Like Arkansas, Baylor is on a bye ahead of its final three games. The Bears need to get at least one more victory to keep Aranda's job safe. Their next three games are incredibly winnable with at West Virginia being the hardest, and then pretty much two cakewalks at Houston before hosting Kansas to end the season. Frankly, Baylor should finish the season no worse than 7-5, possibly even going 8-4.

Aranda has been raked over the coals for seemingly winning with Matt Rhule's players upon leaving LSU for Waco. To be fair, his team might finish with a better record than his predecessor does at Nebraska. To me, I feel that Aranda is safe, but like with Pittman, it would be totally justifiable for Baylor to move on from Aranda if the Bears finish on a three-game skid after winning three in a row.

Baylor is in a much better position than people will ever give Aranda for, so I would not fire him yet.

3. UCF Knights head coach Gus Malzahn

This is the one to keep a serious eye on. How safe is Gus Malzahn? I think it all comes down to if UCF can go to a bowl game. The Knights started the season strong by going 3-0. While they did beat TCU to commence Big 12 play, their two other wins were over FCS New Hampshire and newish CUSA member Sam Houston. Since beating TCU, UCF has gone a putrid 1-5 with only a win over Arizona.

Given that Arizona is among the worst teams in the Power Four this year, we should not be rewarding Malzahn's team for getting that win. With a very difficult three-game stretch to end the season, I would not be shocked if UCF loses out. They have to go to Tempe to face bowl-eligible Arizona State. They then must go to Morgantown vs. a feisty West Virginia team before finishing the year vs. Utah.

With West Virginia, and honestly, Utah, having its head coach on the hot seat, every game that UCF plays will be magnified. While a win over Arizona State later today would be huge, that means UCF would have to beat either West Virginia or Utah to even have a chance at bowl eligibility. While no team in the Big 12 has been eliminated from the postseason just yet, UCF is not likely a bowl team.

The fact UCF went from briefly being the team to beat in the Big 12 to being a bottom-feeder is crazy!

2. West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Neal Brown

West Virginia is in a very interesting spot with head coach Neal Brown. He somehow survived the change of the helm at athletic director two years ago. I could have sworn he was a goner once Shane Lyons was out in the final weekend entering a 5-7 season for Brown. Enter Wren Baker, and Brown actually held up his end of the bargain last year. WVU entered Week 11 at 4-4 (3-2) on the season.

While the 'Eers do not have a bad loss (Penn State, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, Kansas State), they need to start racking up wins to take Brown off the hot seat. Although they are playing well on the road vs. regional foe Cincinnati, the Mountaineers will need one more win in their final three games to ensure themselves of bowl eligibility. My huge question is will 6-6 even be enough with Jimbo Fisher lurking?

Including Cincinnati, the Mountaineers' final four Big 12 games are varying degrees of challenging. After UC this week, the 'Eers must host Baylor and UCF before ending the year at Lubbock vs. a feisty Texas Tech team. Given that Baylor and UCF also have head coaches on the hot seat, we have to wonder if Brown, Dave Aranda and Gus Malzahn will get a chance to live to fight for another season.

I like Brown's chances of staying a lot, but I also recognize how mediocre he has been previously.

1. Purdue Boilermakers head coach Ryan Walters

It is not even close. Purdue may be the worst team in the Power Four. The Boilermakers have lost seven games in a row and may not win another game the rest of the way. Although Ryan Walters' team has been bit by the injury bug, he may not have been ready to be a Power Four head coach after leaving Bret Bielema's Illinois staff. It just goes to show how great of a head coach Jeff Brohm really is.

The fact that Mike Bobinski is a proven athletic director, and one who just saw Matt Painter's men's basketball team play for a national championship, it kind of makes you wonder if he has his finger on the trigger when it comes to moving on from Walters. Admittedly, I do not know what direction to go in as far as identifying the next head coach for Purdue, other than he has to be an offensive mind.

Right now, I would say that it is more likely than not that Walters will be let go after this season. I understand that they are getting their teeth kicked in right now vs. Ohio State, but if it looks terrible vs. rival Indiana, he may never get to play for the Old Oaken Bucket again. Purdue is not a great job, but Walters and his staff seem to be doing everything in their power to make it look like one.

We have to wonder if Bobinski pulls the plug prematurely to get a jumpstart on finding the right guy.