Red Flags: 5 college football teams on upset alert in Week 12

If the 2024 season has taught us anything, it's that the most upset-filled weeks come when we think they might not. Of course, that theory isn't batting 1.000 but with only the huge Tennessee-Georgia showdown in Week 12 as a true headliner, it's hard not just to put every other AP Top 25 ranked team on upset alert this week. We won't do that necessarily but we have our college football upset picks locked and loaded.

With only three weeks left in the regular season, the importance of these games becomes amplified tenfold. As we watch 18-to-22-year-olds play this sport, though, that creates even more variance. So yes, the aforementioned SEC showdown between the Vols and Dawgs is the biggest game on the Week 12 schedule. But teams like BYU, Texas, Clemson, Missouri and many others find themselves in tricky spots on the road.

But which teams are we actually going to put on upset alert this week? Georgia is definitely one of them as a heavy favorite in Athens but the Dawgs aren't alone in our college football upset picks as we try to make sense of the looming chaos that feels inevitable for Saturday.

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2024 Upset Picks Record: 16-34

5. Texas Longhorns

Opponent: at Arkansas | Time: Saturday, Nov. 16, Noon ET (ABC) | Spread: TEX -12.5

Let me get out ahead of this by saying that this isn't a game I won't to believe will have Texas on upset alert. Coming off of the bye, Quinn Ewers looked healthy again for the first time in more than a month. With that being the case, I do believe that the Longhorns are a much different, much better team on that side of the ball and armed with a defense that can cause a litany of problems for this Arkansas offense.

Having said that, Ewers and Texas looked dominant against a Florida team that was licking its wounds and starting a third-string quarterback in Austin. Playing in Fayetteville against a mostly healthy Razorbacks team — not to mention a team that clipped Tennessee earlier in the year — should be a much bigger test for the Longhorns and whether or not they're deserving of being the current projected SEC champion.

If Texas has found itself again with a healthy Ewers, this one might not be close. However, if that was an aberration last week against the Gators that had more to do with Florida than the Longhorns, Arkansas is well-coached and talented enough to really give Steve Sarkisian's team a scare on Saturday afternoon. It's not full-throated but we'll comfortably signal a possible upset here.

4. Kansas State Wildcats

Opponent: Arizona State | Time: Saturday, Nov. 16, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: KSU -7.5

Outside of getting blown out by BYU in Provo on Sept. 21, it seemed as if Kansas State was going to be able to make some real noise in the Big 12. As the calendar started to turn from October to November, though, the Wildcats have started to look exceptionally mortal. They escaped an upset bid from rival Kansas but couldn't do the same the next week at Houston before their bye.

Now, Chris Klieman's team will host one of the biggest surprises in the Big 12, the 7-2 Arizona State Sun Devils. And there are two things that should scare K-State in this matchup. For one, even with the bye to rest, Avery Johnson has not looked healthy of late. The young quarterback is still heavily reliant on his legs, so compromising that in any way is a hindrance to this offense. And the other side of that is a defense that I still don't trust right now.

With Cam Skattebo set to return for Arizona State in this game, Kenny Dillingham's team has proven to be a versatile nightmare for opponents on offense. The defense has its warts but I believe they can score more than enough to keep up with the Wildcats, especially if Johnson still doesn't look 100%. Subsequently, that's still enough to pull off the upset, even with the Sun Devils traveling to Manhattan.

3. LSU Tigers

Opponent: at Florida | Time: Saturday, Nov. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: LSU -3.5

Based solely on the best iteration of LSU, this game wouldn't have made the cut for our upset picks this week. However, Brian Kelly's team just got its head kicked in at home by rival Alabama, effectively ending their College Football Playoff chances save for unprecedented chaos putting them into the SEC Championship Game. And now they have to go on the road to Gainesville.

Yes, I spent the Texas portion of the program talking disparagingly about Florida and deservedly so. Here's the thing, though — Billy Napier's team looked like they knew that, with Aidan Warner, they had no chance on the road against the Longhorns. For this LSU matchup, DJ Lagway is back and the offense has looked far more dangerous with the freshman quarterback in the fold. And we know that LSU's defense has shown a propensity to be had, especially against mobile signal-callers.

LSU should be able to chuck it around quite a bit but Garrett Nussmeier has shown some issues with turnovers. With Florida's offense ticking up and the home crowd at The Swamp behind them, that could get things loose in this matchup with a quickness. No question, this also has a chance to look completely foolish for putting the Tigers on upset alert but there's enough variance to where Florida actually pulls it off on Saturday.

2. BYU Cougars

Opponent: Kansas | Time: Saturday, Nov. 16, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: BYU -2.5

If you're just looking at the scorebug, this matchup probably doesn't look like one where an upset is brewing. It's in Provo where an undefeated BYU is hosting a three-win Kansas team. So why is the line only BYU -2.5? Why do the Jayhawks have a legitimate chance to win this game? Context is always crucial and this game is fully indicative of why.

BYU has been phenomenal this season, without question. However, the rigors of the season have seemingly started to take a bit of a toll. Yes, it was Holy War last week but they were terrifyingly close to losing to rival Utah, a team that looks substantially worse than them. On the flip side, Kansas has finally started to look like what we expected from Lance Leipold this season, including just taking down Iowa State last week.

This one should be high-scoring as Kansas' defense is plenty generous but the Jayhawks offense is almost tailormade to get after BYU and put points on the board. Devin Neal should have a big day, which sets up explosive pass plays perfectly, even if the Cougars have limited them. On the flip side, Jake Retzlaff has been great but also a bit loose with the ball. The Kansas defense isn't good but is opportunistic. One turnover in a shootout could flip this game immediately, so I think the Jayhawks are completely live to cause Big 12 calamity.

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Opponent: 6 Tennessee | Time: Saturday, Nov. 16, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: UGA -9.5

The status of Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been the big question for this game. To be sure, that's important as the dropoff to freshman backup Gaston Moore is steep. At the same time, though — and maybe I'm insane for thinking like this — does Tennessee actually need their offense to put up a big number to beat this current iteration of Georgia?

Looking back at what Ole Miss did last week, albeit in the elements, to dogwalk Georgia, it started with the Rebels defense. They dominated in the trenches, particularly on the interior of the Dawgs offensive line. Tennessee has one of the best defensive fronts in the country and their perceived weakness in the secondary isn't something necessarily that the Bulldogs can take advantage of with their receivers. On top of that, Carson Beck has simply looked a bit broken of late.

Georgia's defense is higher-variance than expected this season but the best of that unit could cause Tennessee's tepid offense to struggle as well. All this is to say, there's a real chance this game is played in the 20s or even the teens. While Kirby Smart has dominated the Vols, especially in Athens, this rockfight of a game isn't going to have enough separation for Tennessee to not be live to pull off the upset and all but lock up a College Football Playoff berth.