College Football Playoff bid stealers are more likely to return than you think

The 2024-25 college football season provided some entertaining and inspiring stories. Most of the usual suspects were contenders for the national championship, but a few unsuspected underdogs managed to sneak into the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff and make some serious noise.

Arizona State, Clemson and Boise State were all considered long-shots to win the national title at the start of the season. But all three were in the bracket at season's end, earning plenty of fans along the way (and even striking some fear into the hearts of blue bloods in their CFP matchup).

Typically in college football, that sort of unexpected success isn't sustainable year over year. Star players depart either for the NFL or the transfer portal, and whatever secret sauce made the previous season so special fails to translate. Clemson may be the exception to that rule given their historic success under Dabo Swinney, but Arizona State and Boise State haven't been this good in some time.

Plus, the Sun Devils and Broncos both saw their star running backs, Cam Skattebo and Ashton Jeanty, declare for the NFL Draft. That naturally leaves one to assume they were probably one-hit wonders in 2024. However, the data suggests that might not be the case.

2024 CFP underdogs are more likely to return in 2025 because of returning production

According to ESPN's Bill Connelly, all three squads are within the top 10 in projected returning production entering 2025. That's going to go a long way to improving their chances of repeating as conference champions and returning to the CFP for a shot at a national title.

Clemson defeated SMU in the ACC title game and snatched the No. 12 seed in the CFP field. The Tigers will return 81 percent of their 2024 production, topping the list of all FBS programs. Quarterback Cade Klubnik will be the focus of attention, but he'll be surrounded by a ton of firepower including one of the best young receiving corps in the country.

Arizona State shocked the college football world by defying the last-place expectations set by Big 12 media. The Sun Devils' worst-to-first effort rocketed them to a conference title and the No. 4 seed in the CFP. Seventy-nine percent of head coach Kenny Dillingham's production will return to Tempe, second only to Clemson in the FBS. QB Sam Leavitt and wideout Jordyn Tyson (the latter of whom missed the team's CFP loss to Texas due to injury) are anticipated to be among the top offensive duos in the country.

Boise State had Jeanty to mostly thank for their national prominence, but that doesn't mean the Broncos weren't an elite team. They'll see 69 percent of that team's production return next season — good for ninth in the FBS — which will help keep potential usurpers in the Mountain West at bay.

Fans shouldn't be surprised if in 2025 they're seeing these three programs squarely in the mix for the next edition of the CFP.