College Football Playoff bracket: What Alabama needs to make it in after a third loss

Week 13 may have been the final nail in Alabama's College Football Playoff coffin. While ESPN's FPI gives the Crimson Tide a 37.7 percent chance to make the playoff, that is only 12th best in all of college football. Plus, we still have to crown a Big 12 champion, who would effectively be bid stealing. What I am getting at is, if Alabama wanted to make the playoff, it should not have lost to Oklahoma...

But given the sheer chaos we saw a weekend ago in college football, I am not willing to close the door on Alabama getting in just yet. The Crimson Tide will need to win the Iron Bowl over Auburn to prevent the Tigers from achieving bowl eligibility to start. They will need a ton of help from teams outside of their control to do enough to merit inclusion as one of the seven at-large teams.

Here is what the latest AP Top 25 Poll looks like. We will use it as a reference point for the time being.

1. Oregon Ducks (11-0) (1,525 points, 61 first-place votes)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) (1,463 points)
3. Texas Longhorns (10-1) (1,395 points)
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-1) (1,301 points)
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) (1,278 points)
6. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) (1,242 points)
7. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) (1,110 points)
8. Miami Hurricanes (10-1) (1,096 points)
9. SMU Mustangs (10-1) (1,001 points)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (10-1) (998 points)
11. Boise State Broncos (10-1) (984 points)
12. Clemson Tigers (9-2) (789 points)
13. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3) (739 points)
14. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2) (727 points)
15. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) (661 points)
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3) (639 points)
17. Iowa State Cyclones (9-2) (498 points)
18. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) (446 points)
19. BYU Cougars (9-2) (445 points)
20. Texas A&M Aggies (8-3) (399 points)
21. UNLV Rebels (9-2) (231 points)
22. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-3) (188 points)
23. Colorado Buffaloes (8-3) (161 points)
24. Missouri Tigers (8-3) (142 points)
25. Army Black Knights (9-1) (133 points)

Assuming the College Football Playoff rankings mirror the AP Top 25, this would be the 12-team field

1. Oregon Ducks (11-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns (10-1) (Projected SEC champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (10-1) (Projected ACC champion)
4. Boise State Broncos (10-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) (Projected national indepenent at-large)
8. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (9-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
10. SMU Mustangs (10-1) (Projected ACC runner-up)
11. Indiana Hoosiers (10-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
12. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)

And for even more reference, these would be the first four teams out based on the latest AP Top 25.

• 13. Clemson Tigers (9-2) (ACC)
• 14. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3) (SEC)
• 15. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) (SEC)
• 16. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3) (SEC)

Now that we have all that information to work with, here is what must happen for Alabama to get in.

What needs to happen for Alabama to make the College Football Playoff

Beyond just winning the Iron Bowl to finish the regular season at 9-3 overall and 5-3 in conference play, Alabama needs to root for chaos across the SEC, and college football as a whole. Assuming they are one of the first two teams out this week, they would need to get past two teams ahead of them to get in. The most obvious team to root against is Clemson, but is it? South Carolina could leap them...

For the most part, I would say rooting against Clemson is the right way to go. Alabama's win over South Carolina would be elevated, while Georgia's win over Clemson would be diminished. Knocking Clemson out of playoff consideration removes more team who could conceivably make it in out of the ACC. It serves Alabama for the ACC to only get its champion between SMU and Miami or Clemson.

I would say rooting for Texas and against Texas A&M makes the most sense. Alabama would want Texas to be the SEC champion, just to avoid Texas A&M essentially bid stealing, as the Aggies are way behind them in the AP Top 25. I think seeing Tennessee beat Vanderbilt helps the Crimson Tide out a bit. The big question: Is Alabama's only real way in for Georgia to completely fall apart at the seams?

A great debate would happen if Georgia were to lose to Texas or Texas A&M in Atlanta. If the Dawgs were to lose to Georgia Tech in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, Georgia would have to win the SEC Championship to get in. The only problem with this is Alabama would have to continually debase its best win of the year with the hopes of taking Georgia's spot in. In reality, it needs more teams to lose.

I would say seeing teams like Miami and SMU screw up in the ACC, Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State blow it in the Big Ten and Notre Dame throwing up on itself vs. USC would be a huge help. Of those six non-SEC teams, Indiana, Notre Dame and Penn State being proven fraudulent would give Alabama an even better shot at getting in. Essentially, there is so much out of control for Alabama to make it in.

Overall, Alabama really needs to see teams ranked above them like Georgia, Indiana and Clemson mess up to get in. I hate to say it, but a Tennessee loss to Vanderbilt does not help Alabama. The Vols would be 9-3 (5-3) as well, but with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Crimson Tide. Frankly, beating a 5-6 Auburn team is not going to be enough to propel Alabama into the playoff this season.

The probability gives Alabama a decent shot at getting in, but it needs two more weekends of chaos.