College Football Playoff bracket: We have to start taking the BYU Cougars seriously

I am an idiot. I picked BYU to go 4-8 this season. The Cougars will go no worse than 8-5 this season, and that assumes they lose their final four regular-season games and their holiday season bowl. Kalani Sitake's team is playing with tremendous confidence against every opponent they play. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been the perfect quarterback to lead BYU to an undefeated 8-0.

Now that we are about to enter the final month of the regular season, we have seen more than enough to make this once-bold claim: BYU is undeniably a serious threat to make the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. While it may have to be as the Big 12 champion, there is a pathway for the Cougars getting in with a conference title bout loss. The Cougars have my undivided attention.

As a matter of fact, I have them in over Iowa State as my projected Big 12 champion for this week.

1. Oregon Ducks (8-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) (Projected SEC champion)
3. Clemson Tigers (6-1) (Projected SEC champion)
4. BYU Cougars (8-0) (Projected Big 12 champion)
5. Texas Longhorns (7-1) (Projected SEC runner-up)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) (Projected National independent at-large)
9. Texas A&M Aggies (7-1) (Projected SEC at-large)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (8-0) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
11. Miami Hurricanes (8-0) (Projected ACC runner-up)
12. Boise State Broncos (6-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

And just to be transparent, I still have the Cyclones as one of my first four teams out as well this week.

• 13. Tennessee Volunteers (6-1) (SEC)
• 14. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2) (SEC)
• 15. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-0) (ACC)
• 16. Iowa State Cyclones (7-0) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)

BYU was a major talking point on Monday's episode of False Start, which will be out later today. Cody Williams and I both had the Cougars in the Big 12's AQ spot. While there was some debate as to how high could the Cougars climb, it will be tough sledding to be any higher than the No. 4 seed in the upcoming 12-team playoff. We recognize what they have done, but they have an easier pathway in.

Let's unpack the reality that BYU will be playing the No. 5 seed in the Fiesta Bowl in late December.

College Football Playoff: BYU is a serious contender to make it in this year

Besides being undefeated, there are a few things working in BYU's favor to make the playoff. The first is they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas State, who owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Colorado. BYU does not have to play the Buffaloes or the Cyclones during the regular season. The Cougars' final four games are at Utah, home vs. Kansas, at Arizona State and home vs. Houston.

The Holy War could be tough, as could the road date with fringe Big 12 contender Arizona State. However, the chances of the Cougars getting to Arlington undefeated are quite high. Colorado has the next easiest schedule of the current Big 12 contenders with games at Texas Tech, home vs. Utah, at Kansas and finishing the year at Oklahoma State. Iowa State and Kansas State's slates are harder.

Iowa State may be undefeated at 7-0, but still has five games left. Those are home vs. Texas Tech, at Kansas, home vs. Cincinnati, at Utah and home vs. Kansas State. The Wildcats have a road date at Houston, host Arizona State, home vs. Cincinnati and then finish the regular season at Iowa State for Farmageddon. The point in all of this is BYU has the easiest pathway to Arlington of the other three.

The other big thing working in BYU's favor is the Cougars have the head-to-head victory over ACC contender SMU in the non-conference. The Mustangs still have a ways to go to get to Charlotte, but the Ponies are a very strong 7-1 on the season and are without a conference loss. If you do the math or forecast a bit, BYU should get to 11 wins quite easily, potentially getting them into the playoff.

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, BYU Has a 33.1-percent chance of winning the Big 12 as we enter Week 10, which is the third best in the Power Four and the eighth best in FBS. The Cougars also have a 58.2 percent chance to make the playoff. That is the 11th-best mark in college football, and the best in the Big 12. Iowa State has the 14th-best shot to make the playoff at 45.4 percent.

BYU cruising into a very navigable part of their schedule bodes very well for the Cougars this season.