College Football Playoff bracket: Everything Alabama needs to guarantee a spot
The Alabama Crimson Tide would rather be playing in the SEC Championship Game than sitting at home, but they can still come out of the weekend with reasons to celebrate.
The latest College Football Playoff rankings slotted Alabama in at No. 11, which would give them the same seed in the playoff bracket. That ranking is a huge positive for the Crimson Tide, who could have been in danger of missing out on the field if they had been positioned behind Miami or another three-loss SEC team.
A chaotic rivalry weekend worked out perfectly for Kalen DeBoer and company. But they're not guaranteed a spot just yet. This is what they need to have their ticket punched.
College Football Playoff scenarios for Alabama
Alabama doesn't control their own destiny. Clemson does. (And theoretically UNLV.)
If SMU wins the ACC, the Crimson Tide are pretty much in. Committee chairperson Warde Manuel made that clear when he said teams that aren't active this weekend won't be able to move up because there are no new data points for them. That means Alabama will outrank Miami and other playoff hopefuls for the final at-large playoff spot so long as Clemson doesn't steal a bid.
The Tigers are a threat to Alabama's playoff hopes because a win over SMU could result in two ACC teams appearing in the field. Clemson would hold the autobid while the Mustangs might not fall behind the Crimson Tide. After all, a loss in an extra game shouldn't punish them, right?
Well that's not entirely clear. Manuel opened the door for SMU to drop beyond Alabama. If that's how the committee feels, then the Tide are pretty much guaranteed a spot.
Warde Manuel on whether SMU could drop below Alabama with a loss Saturday : "Potentially, yes."
— John Talty (@JTalty) December 4, 2024
We just don't know what the committee will do until they do it. As Chris Vannini pointed out, the committee gave TCU a playoff spot in 2022 despite their Big 12 Championship Game loss.
A lot of people think the committee will automatically put Alabama over SMU if SMU loses because of last year.
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) December 4, 2024
But one year prior, TCU lost the Big 12 championship and stayed in ahead of Alabama. They don't ALWAYS go with another SEC team.
It's possible. It's not guaranteed.
The big difference there? TCU was undefeated going into the conference title game and Alabama had two losses.
In the first year of the 12-team field, it's tough to predict much of anything. So we'll keep it very simple: Alabama fans should be rooting for an SMU win. That's the outcome that won't give the committee any decisions to make.
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