College Football Playoff bracket: Fatal flaw of every team in the CFP field

Whoever ends up winning the first 12-team College Football Playoff will have earned it. While four teams would need to win an additional game beyond the two required from the previous decade, another eight would have to win four in a row. Even more concerning, there are four teams who need to win four games in a row, including one being on the road vs. a higher-seeded team in round one.

Even as we try to dissect all the machinations and possibilities that could unfold from the first 12-team bracket in College Football Playoff history, we have to accept the cold, hard truth here. Every team in this field has a fatal flaw. Some are more obvious than others, but every team has one, from top-seeded Oregon all the way down to the last team in with the ACC champion Clemson Tigers.

So what I want to do today is not actually overthink this for a change. I want to point out all 12 teams in the playoff field's fatal flaws. While every team's Achilles' heel is different than another's, they all have them. For varying reasons, it may become the reason why Team X does not beat Team Y in Round Z to win the 11th College Football Playoff, the first one that prominently features 12 teams.

Let's start with the only three-loss team in the playoff field this year with ACC champion Clemson.

No. 12 Clemson Tigers

Fatal Flaw: Garrett Riley's offensive scheme that struggles with Clemson's best competition

In the 13 games that Clemson has played this season, there are common threads within their 10 wins, as well as issues that popped up in their three losses. To make this as simple as possible, Dabo Swinney's reliance on Garrett Riley's offensive scheme leaves the Tigers exposed vs. the best competition this team has faced. Cade Klubnik is a different player going up against the best teams.

Because Swinney is a CEO-type of head coach, he tends to put too much trust and faith in his coordinators. He was able to poach Riley away from TCU after the Horned Frogs' national title run two years ago. Unfortunately, Riley has not achieved the same level of success since coming aboard at Clemson. His scheme works well against ACC cannon fodder, but there will be none of that in the playoff.

Clemson has the necessary players to win a playoff game or two, but coaching will eliminate them.

No. 11 SMU Mustangs

Fatal Flaw: Roster depth from having just made the move up from the Group of Five

Lacking roster depth is not something unique to SMU. In fact, I would argue that at least a third of the playoff field will be unraveled by variations of the same limitation. For as great as SMU has been in its first year in the ACC, this was only a Group of Five team a year ago. The fact Rhett Lashlee had the Ponies in the playoff in year one in their new league is quite the accomplishment to say the very least.

However, the Mustangs simply do not have the horses (pun intended) to win four playoff games in a row as essentially road warriors. Unless they met Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl after upsetting Penn State in their first-round game, SMU will be the underdog in every playoff game they would play. Coaching might get them a win or two, but I don't see them winning the Cotton or Orange Bowls, y'all.

Although coaching totally matters, a lack of high-end players is why SMU is not winning the playoff.

No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers

Fatal Flaw: Depth in the trenches to handle high-end Power Four behemoth programs

While it would not shock me to see Indiana to win multiple playoff games, they too have depth issues. The Hoosiers were a bad Big Ten team a season ago. Although Curt Cignetti hit the transfer portal so incredibly hard this past offseason, I question if the Hoosiers have enough depth in the trenches on both sides of the ball to continually move the sticks on offense or slow down a vicious ground game.

Although Indiana can definitely beat Notre Dame in their first-round game, just like they could upend Georgia in the Sugar Bowl if the Dawgs are lackluster offensively and play with their food, the Hoosiers will eventually run into a team that is more explosive in the trenches than them. While there is a scenario in which Indiana can win the playoff, that would require way too much chaos to believe in.

As it is with SMU over in the ACC, Indiana arrived to the playoff a year or two earlier than expected.

No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers

Fatal Flaw: Josh Heupel's offensive scheme being able to outsmart four contenders in a row

I have the Tennessee Volunteers in a group of about three teams that I think could win the national title, but don't count on it. While I think they have the defense to run the gauntlet, even as the No. 9 seed, I have my concerns about Josh Heupel's offense being able to outsmart four contending teams in a row. It is a variation of the Air Raid, one the upper crust of the SEC can often slow down.

For as much as I believe Tennessee has a championship-caliber defense and rushing attack, I wonder if Nico Iamaleava's lack of starting experience heading into this season will rear its ugly head in the playoff. He has played better of late, but I still don't trust him. What I do trust is some of the best defensive minds left in the national title conversation being able to solve Heupel's Rubik's cube easily.

Tennessee is going to need to be more creative, or even a bit more powerful, offensively to win it all.

No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes

Fatal Flaw: The Ryan Day of it all. There are way too many cooks in the kitchen on this staff!

I would not want to be Ryan Day if Ohio State lost back-to-back home games. That is what is at stake when Josh Heupel's Tennessee Volunteers come into The Horseshoe for their first-round playoff matchup. On paper, Ohio State has the best roster, as well as one of the best coaching staffs. However, the Ryan Day of it all has doubt creeping in in the worst way possible. Is he on the way out?

While I do trust Jim Knowles' defense to show up in a big way, I question if there are too many cooks in the kitchen on Day's staff. Having Chip Kelly around as the offensive coordinator was far more of a problem than a solution vs. Michigan in The Game. Michigan's one strength was along the defensive line, and Kelly ran the ball right at them! Tennessee has one of the best defensive lines in the playoff.

At the end of the day, coaching matters and that will be a reason why Ohio State may not win it all.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Fatal Flaw: Mike Denbrock's offense to not have Riley Leonard be so very one-dimensional

I have gone back and forth on if I think Notre Dame has what it takes to win the playoff. Right now, they are the one team in the playoff field I know the least about. They have played the fewest games and are not a member of a Power Four conference. We have seen Marcus Freeman get big wins over teams like Army. We have also seen him lose unthinkable games to teams like Northern Illinois as well.

To me, the biggest issue I have with Notre Dame potentially winning its first national title since the late 1980s is the offense proving to be too one-dimensional under Mike Denbrock. While Riley Leonard has played much better under his guidance as the season has gone along, he is still way too reliant on the ground game to win playoff games in multiple ways. There are a few great run defenses still left...

Unless Denbrock is ready for Leonard to air it out, Notre Dame is not going to win in any shootouts.

No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions

Fatal Flaw: James Franklin's inability to lead Penn State to a victory as a game's underdog

Penn State is the first of four teams I think can win the national championship entering the playoff. They are a shocking entrant into that discussion for me. To be quite frank, their best game this season was the one that just happened in a loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. Penn State showed me something I was not entirely sure they had in them, which is playing up to its competition.

Right this instant, Penn State is not a keel over and die team vs. superior opponents. They have shown they have some fight in them. Unfortunately, for as much as I like their high-end players and both of their coordinators, James Franklin is still their head coach. There are limitations to him being a CEO-type, the kind that often leaves you feeling empty, wondering if he can ever be a true catalyst.

Penn State has one of the best paths to a title as a first-round team, but I still do not trust Franklin.

No. 5 Texas Longhorns

Fatal Flaw: Quinn Ewers' health and Steve Sarkisian's inability to not be such a meddler

For lack of a better word, Texas is a suped-up version of Indiana. They can skull-drag inferior teams like no one's business, but as soon as they face a team of their similar caliber, they shrink. Texas should be the No. 2 seed and SEC champions, but the Longhorns blew it once again to Georgia as the favored team in both matchups. It falls back entirely on the health of their quarterback Quinn Ewers.

While I do have Texas as one of my four most likely teams to win the College Football Playoff, Ewers looks like a walking stiff out there. If he has to go up against a defensive line in the vicinity of Georgia's he is going to get eaten alive again. It is why I would consider playing Arch Manning in spots the rest of the way. Unfortunately, I feel the quarterback meddling has started to go to Steve Sarkisian's head.

I have completely pivoted on this take: Arch Manning will win Texas the playoff, and not Quinn Ewers...

No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils

Fatal Flaw: Depth across the board because this was only a 3-9 Pac-12 team a season ago

I hate to say it, but Arizona State is going to run into the same issues that will likely prevent Indiana and SMU from winning a national championship. Yes, I am worried about their depth. Although the Sun Devils' offense is multi-faceted and all sorts of explosive, I question if they can hang defensively going up against the best offenses in the country. Again, this was a 3-9 Pac-12 team a season ago...

Arizona State is one of four teams that got a first-round bye by winning its conference championship. This would get them to the national quarterfinals where they have to travel across the country to Atlanta for the Peach Bowl to take on the winner of No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas. While I think Arizona State can win that game, as well as its national semifinal, they will run out of gas in the end.

We saw this exact type of thing happen two years ago when TCU made it to the national title bout.

No. 3 Boise State Broncos

Fatal Flaw: Being a Group of Five team having to beat three Power Four teams in succession

I don't want to be mean, but Boise State has no chance to win the national title. None. While I would be foolish to think that they cannot win a single playoff game because they can, as it is in their blood, the fact the Broncos are a Group of Five team tasked with beating three Power Four teams in a row is too big of a pill to swallow. This team is well-coached and has a great offense, but that is about it for them.

Truth be told, I think getting a first-round by to face the winner of No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl is such a huge break for them. To be honest, I would not be incredibly shocked if they were to parlay that national quarterfinals victory into some nobody believes in us motivation to stun either Georgia, Notre Dame or Indiana in the semifinals. My problem is they have to win one after that.

Boise State is locked into being a top-eight team, but they might not be anything more than that.

No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs

Fatal Flaw: Carson Beck's health, Gunner Stockton's inexperience, Mike Bobo calling plays

Admittedly, Georgia has the easiest path to a national championship. The Dawgs only need to win three games. They would need to beat either Notre Dame or Indiana in the Sugar Bowl before getting the best of Boise State, Penn State or SMU in probably the Orange Bowl. From there, they would probably end up facing someone like Oregon, Texas, Ohio State or even Tennessee back in Atlanta.

However, there is a chance Georgia could lose the Sugar Bowl to either Notre Dame or Indiana for a combination of three reasons: Carson Beck could be out or injured for that game. Gunner Stockton has virtually no meaningful experience beyond the second half of the SEC Championship Game. Mike Bobo is the offensive play-caller. Georgia has the defense and ground game to win the entire playoff.

If Georgia fails to win its third national title in four years, it will be because of its passing game issues.

No. 1 Oregon Ducks

Fatal Flaw: Dillon Gabriel's physical limitations going up against elite Power Two pass rushes

Oregon is one of four teams I can realistically see winning the College Football Playoff right this instant, along with Georgia, Penn State and Texas. My mind could change between now and the playoff starting, but I have Oregon losing to Georgia in the national championship. I am not going out on a limb there, as that feels like one of the safest potential matchups and outcomes at this juncture.

As far as what Oregon's fatal flaw is, I hate to say it, but it is Dillon Gabriel's physical limitations. He can run and throw the ball with precision, but his left-handedness, diminutive stature and injury-plagued pass are my biggest causes for concern. I do also wonder if Oregon being undefeated entering the playoff is to their disadvantage. They have not been punched in the mouth yet. Could they get got?

Oregon only needs to win three more games, but the Ducks would have tough matchups in all three.