College Football Playoff bracket: Ranking bubble teams by chance to get in

Heading into Week 9 of the 2024 college football season, ESPN's Football Power Index has 24 teams with a 10-percent or better chance of making the College Football Playoff. Anything less than that at this stage of the game seems too unrealistic. That does not mean teams in the single digits have no shot, but they are much easier to cross off ... with pencil. This is so going to blow up in my face, y'all.

Admittedly, I am not a big numbers guy, but I have found playoff probability to be a good barometer on where certain contending teams are at. Making the College Football Playoff is all about winning your major conference. If you cannot do that, impress the Selection Committee with your resume. As far as where the playoff bubble is at today, I would say it is between 50 and 10 percent of getting in.

With that in mind, these nine teams are firmly on the inside with a better than 50/50 shot of making it.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (87.1)
2. Oregon Ducks (86.7)
3. Miami Hurricanes (86.3)
4. Texas Longhorns (78.9)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (77.5)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (73.5)
7. Tennessee Volunteers (67.1)
8. Indiana Hoosiers (63.8)
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (55.6)

So if you did the math, that means we still have 15 teams who are between 49.99 and 10 percent of making the playoff. Since only nine teams are about the 50-percent threshold, that means we are guaranteed to have three teams with unfavorable odds getting in no matter what. Of course, FPI changes with every game that is played. It is just a good metric to help see the larger picture here.

Now let's rank the 15 teams firmly on the bubble and assess their realistic chances of getting in.

15. Washington State Cougars (13.4)

Washington State may be 6-1 on the year, but the Cougars' lone loss on the year is to Mountain West and Group of Five favorite Boise State. The fact Wazzu does not play in a conference this season hurts the Cougars considerably. They need to win out and for so many teams to be undeserving. They would have to get in as an at-large team. I see virtually no way they have any shot of getting in.

14. UNLV Rebels (18.2)

UNLV needs to beat Boise State to have any realistic shot of getting in. If they do, then the Rebels skyrocket up this list. While their lone loss on the season to Syracuse is not bad, the Orange's lone loss being to an awful Stanford team really hurts their chances of getting in. SU needs to beat Pittsburgh to have any level of validation. UNLV may be a 10-win team, but that is not playoff-caliber.

13. Army Black Knights (24.5)

Army has two tough games left on the schedule. They have to play arch-rival Navy, as well as Notre Dame in the non-conference. The Irish also have to play the Midshipmen. While it may be crazy if either the Black Knights or Midshipmen got them, I have to go with the Irish in both games. Army may end up winning the AAC in its first season in, but the Black Knights really need Boise State to lose.

12. Missouri Tigers (15.8)

Missouri is the most frustrating team on this list. The Tigers are 6-1, and I don't think they are any good. Should they win out and get to 11-1 (7-1), they will make the playoff as either the No. 10 or No. 11 seed. An 11-win team in the Big Ten or SEC will be making the field, no matter what. Their road date this week at Alabama is every bit a College Football Playoff elimination game for both teams.

11. Ole Miss Rebels (22.3)

With two losses on the season, Ole Miss needs to win out to have any real shot at getting in. This includes beating Georgia Between the Hedges in a few weeks. Losing the Magnolia Bowl put their playoff chances on the brink, as losing to Kentucky during homecoming was a complete mental meltdown for the Rebels. Ole Miss will win around nine games this season, but they won't make it in.

10. Pittsburgh Panthers (12.9)

I don't trust Pittsburgh at all. The Panthers may be 6-0, but we also haven't seen Pitt Pitt yet. Like death and taxes, it is inevitable. They have a huge home game on Thursday night vs. Syracuse. The winner of that game will emerge as the presumptive fourth-best team in the ACC, for now. They will have a date with Clemson later on this season, but I don't think they even have the horses of SMU.

9. Kansas State Wildcats (37.5)

Kansas State is the first team I have gotten to where I think it might actually happen. Losing badly to BYU doesn't help, but the Wildcats could have a chance to avenge the loss at a later date in Arlington. Having the head-to-head victory over Colorado is huge. They may need to beat Iowa State in Farmageddon to clinch their spot in the title bout. Can they beat Iowa State and BYU back-to-back?

8. Alabama Crimson Tide (43.5)

Alabama probably needs to win out to get in as a two-loss, at-large team in the SEC. This would include wins over Missouri and LSU. If they split the pair, they would have an extreme outside shot at getting in at 9-3, because it is Alabama, but I would not count on it. While I think they get Mizzou this weekend, I remain quite apprehensive about the Crimson Tide's chances of winning in Death Valley.

7. SMU Mustangs (32.3)

The SMU Mustangs are one of four teams who have not lost a game in ACC play yet. Their lone defeat was by three points at home to a serious playoff contender in BYU out of the Big 12. While their games with Duke and Pitt could be hard, there is a chance the Ponies finish the year at 11-1 (8-0). With how good Clemson and Miami have been, they might not get to the ACC Championship Game...

6. LSU Tigers (39.8)

LSU is one of two teams left in the SEC that has not lost a conference game. They fell to USC in Las Vegas over Labor Day Weekend. The win over Ole Miss was huge and the win over Arkansas was a statement victory. Regardless of what happens on Saturday night vs. Texas A&M, LSU should get in by going 2-1 vs. Alabama, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. A 10-2 (7-1) LSU team is getting in this season.

5. Texas A&M Aggies (31.3)

I put Texas A&M in just ahead of LSU because their non-conference loss to Notre Dame is far better than the Bayou Bengals' to USC. They have not lost an SEC game yet. This game is in College Station, so maybe the Aggies can use the home crowd to their advantage. Simply put, if the Aggies split with LSU and Texas to finish the season at 10-2 (7-1), they are probably going to make the playoff field.

4. Boise State Broncos (46.0)

It would be a shame if we were denied Ashton Jeanty playing in a playoff game. Boise State is 5-1 on the season, but the Broncos' lone loss was to No. 1 Oregon. They own the head-to-head over one-loss Washington State. If they take care of business vs. UNLV now, and potentially in the Mountain West title bout, I would have a hard time keeping them out of the playoff, barring an AAC undefeated.

3. Iowa State Cyclones (48.1)

Iowa State has the 10th best odds of making the playoff, but is still on the wrong side of 50 percent. The Cyclones survived a scare vs. UCF last week, but did improve to 7-0. No kidding, the Clones have a very tough schedule the rest of the way. Cincinnati and Texas Tech won't be easy, and neither will be playing Utah in Salt Lake. It may all come down to Farmageddon vs. K-State before facing maybe BYU.

2. BYU Cougars (41.8)

BYU is 7-0 on the season with two impressive wins. They handed SMU and Kansas State their lone losses on the season. The Cougars' five remaining Big 12 games are very winnable, but there could be a trap game. They nearly fell at home to a bad Oklahoma State game, so they must avoid stumbling vs. UCF, Utah and Arizona State. The Cougars should get to Arlington at 11-1 this season.

1. Clemson Tigers (40.3)

Clemson may have gotten its brains beaten in by Georgia in Atlanta back in Week 1. However, the Tigers have been clobbering everyone they have played since up to this point. Unfortunately, they cannot afford a loss during the regular season, especially one to Pittsburgh. The Panthers, SMU and Miami have not lost an ACC game yet, and The U is still undefeated. However, Clemson is a buzzsaw.

This will change week-to-week, but I really like the teams ranked No. 6 or better on this list's chances.