College Football Playoff bracket: Week 11 chaos creates dream scenario for Big 10

Believe it or not, the College Football Playoff picture is finally starting to manifest before our very eyes. We saw the initial rankings come out last Tuesday night on a Fifth of November to remember. It had four Big Ten teams slotted into the top 12, with Oregon at No. 1 overall as the projected conference champion as well as Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana all in position to pick up at-large berths.

While nobody is officially a lock to make the playoff right now, ESPN's Football Power Index has all four Big Ten contenders with 80-percent or better chances of getting in, with Oregon at 95.3, Indiana at 92.8, Ohio State at 92.2 and Penn State at a more-than-respectable 80.9. All four teams won in Week 11, and all of them benefitted from teams like Georgia, Miami and Iowa State all losing.

I could be totally wrong, but here is what the latest College Football Playoff bracket might look like.

1. Oregon Ducks: 10-0 (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns: 8-1 (Projected SEC champion)
3. BYU Cougars: 9-0 (Projected Big 12 champion)
4. SMU Mustangs: 8-1 (Projected ACC champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes: 8-1 (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions: 8-1 (Projected Big Ten at-large)
7. Tennessee Volunteers: 8-1 (Projected SEC runner-up)
8. Indiana Hoosiers: 10-0 (Projected Big Ten at-large)
9. Alabama Crimson Tide: 7-2 (Projected SEC at-large)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 8-1 (Projected national independent at-large)
11. Ole Miss Rebels: 8-2 (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos: 8-1 (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

And for a little bit more context, these would be my first four teams out of the playoff picture today.

• 13. Miami Hurricanes: 9-1 (Projected ACC runner-up)
• 14. Georgia Bulldogs: 7-2 (SEC)
• 15. Texas A&M Aggies: 7-2 (SEC)
• 16. Colorado Buffaloes: 7-2 (Projected Big 12 runner-up)

Entering Week 12, only 20 teams have better than a 10-percent chance of making it into the playoff.

College Football Playoff bracket: Big Ten in a fantastic spot after Week 11

While a lot can change between now and the end of the season, I tend to believe that the Big Ten and the SEC will both get four teams in. That would leave four spots to be allocated for the ACC, Big 12, Group of Five and Notre Dame. In that scenario, only conference champions and the Irish would be getting in outside of the Big Ten or the SEC. Right now, the SEC offers by far the most variance of the two.

I would say when it comes to looking at the Big Ten, Oregon is the closest thing we have to a lock in college football at 10-0. An unforeseen disaster is the only way the Ducks do not make it. If Ohio State wins out, the Buckeyes are certainly in, as are Indiana and Penn State. Indiana should make it in with a loss to Ohio State, as long as the Hoosiers take care of business vs. bottom-feeder Purdue.

Penn State probably cannot afford a second loss on the season, as the Nittany Lions lack a quality win up to this point and may not have one when it comes to Selection Sunday. As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes would probably get in with a loss to Indiana, but may not if they lose to Michigan. Assuming chalk, which includes an Ohio State win over Indiana, all four teams should be getting in this season.

As far as the other three Power Four leagues are concerned, I do not think a non-conference champion in either of those leagues would be bid-stealing, not even a surging Colorado at this point. The big question now is if Notre Dame hangs on or if there is a way for the ACC or Big 12 to get multiple teams in. We might actually live in a world where the SEC only gets in three teams this postseason.

When looking at the Big Ten, it feels like four is closer to the right number of teams than it is to three.