College Football Playoff bracket: What sleeper has best chance to win a playoff game?

The College Football Playoff expanding from four teams to 12 has changed the entire game. While some thought it would ruin the regular season, it has in fact made every game matter even more. Just because you lose one or twice earlier in the season does not mean you are out of it. Every league has reasons to be thoroughly invested in this, as any number of teams can still make it in at this juncture.

So what I am going to try to do today is pick a team that is both a playoff sleeper, as well as one who can conceivably win a single playoff game. Right now, there are 24 teams with 10-percent or better chances of making the playoff, as well as a few others with better than five that I think are still worth monitoring. Essentially, I am trying to find the worst team who can win a single playoff game this year.

Here are the College Football Playoff contenders that I definitively know can win one playoff game.

• Clemson Tigers
• Georgia Bulldogs
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish
• Ohio State Buckeyes
• Oregon Ducks
• Penn State Nittany Lions
• Texas Longhorns

Here are several other contenders I think can, but I am not entirely sure they have it in them just yet.

• Alabama Crimson Tide
• BYU Cougars
• Indiana Hoosiers
• Iowa State Cyclones
• Kansas State Wildcats
• LSU Tigers
• Miami Hurricanes
• Ole Miss Rebels
• Tennessee Volunteers
• Texas A&M Aggies

These are the other playoff contenders with 10-percent or better FPI to get in who I am skeptical of.

• Army Black Knights
• Boise State Broncos
• Missouri Tigers
• Pittsburgh Panthers
• SMU Mustangs
• UNLV Rebels
• Washington State Cougars

And for the sake of argument, here are teams outside of that who are interestingly still alive for this.

• Colorado Buffaloes (6.7)
• Illinois Fighting Illini (6.5)
• Navy Midshipmen (8.3)
• Tulane Green Wave (8.7)

Now I am going to do the impossible and try to find the worst team who can win a playoff game today.

Who is the worst College Football Playoff contender who can win a game?

I am going to start with the fourth cluster of teams and work my way back to the second. Obviously, the seven teams I have listed in the first cluster can all do it, but I am wondering a team in the other clusters can do it, if given the right matchup and opportunity. That could come in the first-round games, or potentially in the national quarterfinals if that team wins the ACC, Big 12 or Group of Five.

Tulane is well-coached, but the Greenies are at a talent disadvantage. Their pathway in was always going to be challenging, so I can cross them off. I am also crossing off Navy because I view the Midshipmen as a lesser version of arch rival Army on the football field. If Navy can do it, then Army can do it, but probably not the other way around. I do think there is a chance for Colorado or Illinois...

Illinois would need to go something like 10-2 or an unthinkable 11-1 to get in. I don't see the Illini going to Indianapolis, so they would have to be something like a No. 7 to No. 11 seed. Because of their defense, I think there is a chance they could catch an at-large team out of the ACC, Big 12, SEC or a Big Ten rival off-guard. Not super likely, but it is promising. I think Colorado could win the Big 12.

So while I think Colorado is the most extreme dark horse that conceivably could, I think in the next cluster of teams that Army, Boise State, Pitt and SMU are better equipped to win one playoff game this year as opposed to Missouri, UNLV and Washington State. The latter three have no shot. I need to see more out of Pitt. SMU may not have the depth. It must be Army because of the offense, or Boise?

In the cluster of nine teams I think can do it but I am not sure, Alabama is dangerous given their level of talent. I would say similar things apply to the other SEC teams in that group, but not as definitely as Alabama. After Alabama, I would go LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and then Tennessee with those SEC teams. I have real concerns about Nico Iamaleava having to start at quarterback in a playoff game.

As for the other five teams in that second group, Miami probably can and I like what I have seen out of Indiana up to this point. Regarding the three Big 12 teams situated in that group, I like Kansas State the best over Iowa State and BYU in that order. So of those 10 teams, I like Alabama, LSU, Miami, Kansas State and Ole Miss' chances the best, in that order. The others I still have some reservations.

So to try and answer this impossible question, technically the answer is Colorado because if the Buffs were to somehow get the No. 4 seed, they would be playing with so much confidence. The question is if they will be good enough to beat presumably the runner-up out of the Big Ten or SEC. I am not so sure. I do think Army and Boise State could with the perfect matchup as the No. 12 seed.

And in that second cluster of teams, it is likely Ole Miss because while the talent is there, the Rebels have been downgraded from a national perception because of their two losses. So to put a bow on this, my definitive answer is Ole Miss getting in as a No. 10 or 11 seed for talent reasons. For as much fun as it would be to see Army, Boise State or Colorado, a Rebels first-round win feels more probable.

Ole Miss has a 22.3-percent chance of making the playoff, but if the Rebels get in, watch out for them!