College Football Playoff Bracket: What SMU needs to make the 12-team field

The College Football Playoff revealed its penultimate rankings on Tuesday night. While most of the teams ranked inside of the top 12 know their fate, others are still trying to keep the dream alive. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, eight teams have a 99-percent or better shot of making it in. There are eight teams with better than a 20-percent chance to get in, but less than 99 percent.

Perhaps the most interesting team below the 99-percent threshold would be the 11-1 SMU Mustangs. They were ranked No. 8, seeded No. 3 as the projected ACC champion and have a playoff percentage chance to get in at 67.5. That mark is the 10th best in college football, just behind Boise State at 69 percent and just ahead of Alabama at 64.1 percent. Will SMU have to beat Clemson now?

Before we get into all that, here is what the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings look like.

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0)
2. Texas Longhorns (11-1)
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
8. SMU Mustangs (11-1)
9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
10. Boise State Broncos (11-1)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
17. Clemson Tigers (9-3)
18. BYU Cougars (10-2)
19. Missouri Tigers (9-3)
20. UNLV Rebels (10-2)
21. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
22. Syracuse Orange (9-3)
23. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
24. Army Black Knights (10-1)
25. Memphis Tigers (10-2)

Based on seeding requirements, here is what the College Football Playoff field would look like today.

1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
3. SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
4. Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)

And these would be the first four teams out of the College Football Playoff after Tuesday's rankings.

• 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
• 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
• 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
• 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)

We know that SMU is 100 percent in with a win over Clemson in Charlotte, but is there another way in?

What must happen for SMU Mustangs to make College Football Playoff

Yes, a win over Clemson in Charlotte not only gets the Mustangs into the playoff for the first time ever, but it would get them the No. 3 seed. They would be seeded behind the Big Ten champion between either Oregon or Penn State and behind the SEC champion between Georgia and Texas. From last night's broadcast on ESPN, it did seem like SMU being ranked No. 8 is very good for them.

However, I do feel like the Selection Committee would love to drop the Mustangs outside of the top 12 if they were to lose to a bigger brand in Clemson. This would also afford an opportunity for potentially underserving teams in Alabama and definitely Miami their shots at getting in. So let's try to figure this out. Is there a way where SMU gets in as an at-large team at 11-2 as the ACC runner-up?

Assuming chalk, meaning the favorite wins everywhere else, this is the playoff field after an SMU loss.

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
2. Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC Champion)
3. Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
4. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
10. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
11. SMU Mustangs (11-2) (ACC runner-up)
12. Clemson Tigers (10-3 (ACC champion)

And here would be your first four teams out in this situation. That last spot in goes down to the wire...

• 13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC)
• 14. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
• 15. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
• 16. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)

While there is a chance that the Clemson win over SMU could help teams that beat the Tigers such as Georgia not fall too far with an SEC Championship Game loss to Texas in a rematch, or even help South Carolina climb up a spot or so, the final spot into the playoff will be debated between the likes of SMU, Alabama and Miami. The Crimson Tide have the best wins, but have the worst losses as well.

Admittedly, it is going to be very close. We know that the winner of the Big 12 is getting in between Arizona State and Iowa State. While there is an outside chance that Boise State gets in as a two-loss non-champion at-large team should the Broncos lose to UNLV in the rematch, it is critical that the Mustangs are ranked two spots ahead of them in the penultimate rankings. That woud be a plus.

Overall, I think it really comes down to how close of a defeat it would be for SMU vs. Clemson in Charlotte for the ACC Championship. If it was by one score, maybe even two, there is a chance the Mustangs would get in as the last at-large team to give the ACC a pair of playoff entrants. However, Alabama does have wins over Georgia, who is getting in, and Missouri who finished the year ranked.

Simply, a win over Clemson and SMU is 100 percent in, while a loss to them opens it up for debate.