14 teams whose College Football Playoff hopes are on life support after Week 10
By John Buhler
What a weekend it was in college football! We saw several ranked teams go down, including four teams that were the favorites. No. 10 Texas A&M got its clock cleaned by unranked South Carolina in Columbia. No. 11 Iowa State could not hold off unranked Texas Tech in Ames. The other No. 11 in Clemson messed around with Louisville and got caught. And No. 17 Kansas State lost to Houston...
It should come as no surprise that all four of those teams suffered brutal losses when it comes to their chances of making the College Football Playoff. While none of them are mathematically eliminated yet, it is far more likely that they will not be part of the 12-team tournament than getting in. Of course, they are not the only other teams in this situation, as there are several others on the brink.
So what I am going to do today is look at every team who is still alive to make the playoff, but not expected to. Essentially, I am looking at every team with worse than a 50-percent of making it in, but better than a 5-percent chance. 12 teams are above the 50-percent threshold, and for the sake of simplicity, SMU is essentially right there at 47.2 percent with the Mustangs' beatdown of Pittsburgh.
With the help of ESPN's Football Power Index, here are 14 teams still fighting for their playoff lives.
ACC
The ACC has two teams that are on the brink of playoff elimination in Pittsburgh and Clemson.
Pittsburgh Panthers (7-1) (11.4 percent)
Saturday night's road defeat to SMU may have been Pittsburgh's lone defeat of the season, but it showed how offensively limited the Panthers really are. Not only do they have four games left that they have to win to have any realistic shot of getting to Charlotte, but one of them is vs. Clemson. The loser of that game will officially be crossed off from College Football Playoff contention in the ACC.
Clemson Tigers (6-2) (7.0 percent)
Because Clemson also lost in the non-conference to Georgia, the Tigers are really behind the eight ball here. Their home defeat to a feisty Louisville team will not help their already week resume. Clemson could have a shot at redemption vs. Pitt, but has to win its final four games to have any shot at getting in as an at-large. This includes getting a menacing South Carolina team at season's end.
Big Ten
The Big Ten only really has four teams left in the College Football Playoff picture in Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State. All four of those teams have one or fewer losses and have a 73.7 percentage chance or better of making the playoff. Even with a second loss on the season for either Ohio State or Penn State does not remove either Big Ten team from playoff consideration entirely.
Big 12
The Big 12 has three of its teams on the playoff bubble in Iowa State, Kansas State and Colorado.
Iowa State Cyclones (7-1) (24.3 percent)
Iowa State has the best shot of getting in of the three. The Cyclones may have lost at home to Texas Tech, but that was by a single point. While they do not draw BYU or Colorado during the regular season, they do get Kansas State in Farmageddon to end the season. Iowa State should get to Arlington with a win, but it is all going to come down to tie-breaking procedures if Colorado wins out.
Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) (14.4 percent)
It is not looking good for Kansas State. The Wildcats have two losses in Big 12 play, and they looked bad in both. They got blown out earlier in the season to Big 12 favorite BYU. While they did get the head-to-head tiebreaker over Colorado, it means nothing now after losing to Houston. Kansas State needs to win out to have any shot at getting to Arlington, which would include a win over Iowa State.
Colorado Buffaloes (6-2) (13.8 percent)
The Colorado Buffaloes were on a bye this past weekend. While the loss to traditional rival Nebraska is not looking great, the Buffs' path to Arlington is much clearer now after this past weekend. If CU wins out to get to 10-2, they would get in with a Kansas State win over Iowa State in Farmageddon. Colorado has already massively overachieved its weak expectations. The rest of the year is gravy.
SEC
The SEC has four teams fighting for their playoff lives in Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M and Missouri.
Ole Miss Rebels (7-2) (29.2 percent)
Ole Miss had no issues getting to 7-2 with a win over rival Arkansas in the Nutt Bowl. The problem for the Rebels is their two losses are two Kentucky and LSU, a team who is already out of it and one who might be after next weekend. Frankly, the Rebels are in the same spot, as they have to win out in their final three games to get in, which would include a win over Georgia. It is possible, but it is challenging.
LSU Tigers (6-2) (21.9 percent)
LSU may have beaten Ole Miss in Magnolia, but the Tigers' two losses are looking worse by the week. USC may not go to a bowl game and Texas A&M is not on the brink of playoff elimination after getting obliterated by the same South Carolina team LSU somehow survived. In short, LSU has to beat Alabama to have any realistic shot of making the playoff. The Crimson Tide are a slight road favorite.
Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) (19.1 percent)
Texas A&M backed up its best win since joining the SEC with a complete dud. The Aggies' offense was entirely out of sorts vs. the South Carolina defense. While Texas A&M could conceivably get to Atlanta with a 10-2 (7-1) mark, their season will be on the line in the Lone Star Showdown with big brother rival Texas. The Longhorns are far from perfect, but Texas A&M ducked them for years, man.
Missouri Tigers (6-2) (6.5 percent)
Missouri is still technically alive because it has four games left to be played. However, the Tigers may have the weakest resume outside of Clemson when it comes to fringe Power Four contenders. Their best win is holding vs. Vanderbilt. Unfortunately, getting curb stomped by Texas A&M and later Alabama has left a bitter taste in our mouths, one that makes it impossible to take Mizzou seriously.
Group of Five
The Group of Five has five fringe contenders in Army, Washington State, Tulane, UNLV and Louisiana.
Army Black Knights (8-0) (20.5 percent)
Army may be 8-0, but the Black Knights still have to play Notre Dame and arch rival Navy. While the Midshipmen have fallen twice this year, Brian Newberry's team is more than capable of pulling off the upset. As for if Army can beat Notre Dame, has World War II happened yet or not? Well, since my retired parents were not alive to see that, they will not see Army get the best of Notre Dame either.
Washington State Cougars (7-1) (19.1 percent)
Washington State is not going way. The Cougars are 7-1, but do not play in a conference. Their only loss so far was to Boise State, the favorite to win the Mountain West and represent the Group of Five in the expanded College Football Playoff. For Wazzu to make the 12-team field, the Cougars are going to need a hellscape of chaos since even at 11-1, they still will not be one of the five best champions.
Tulane Green Wave (7-2) (11.7 percent)
Tulane is still technically alive to win the Group of Five. The Greenies' two losses were to Kansas State and Oklahoma in the non-conference. While neither defeat is great, Tulane can get to the AAC championship fairly easily if they beat Temple, Navy and Memphis. A win over potentially a one-loss Army, whose only defeat is to Notre Dame, could be quite compelling. Not likely, but quite compelling!
UNLV Rebels (6-2) (8.9 percent)
UNLV's only shot at making the College Football Playoff is by beating presumably Boise State in a rematch during the Mountain West championship. Their second defeat on the season came to Syracuse. Not that Syracuse is a bad team, quite the contrary, but the Orange are a team with so much variance. It is not a bad loss, but UNLV will need to win out and need some help to get in.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (7-1) (7.9 percent)
Louisiana is quietly having a very good season. The Ragin' Cajuns are 7-1 with their only loss being to Tulane in the non-conference. To date, the Sun Belt has never had one of its team win the Group of Five. We still respect the hell out of that league. Should the Ragin' Cajuns win their next five games, including the Sun Belt championship, they would have to be in consideration to make the playoff.
These are the 14 teams to keep an eye on next week when it comes to possibly playoff elimination.