College Football Playoff: Nightmare scenarios the SEC should already be worried about

This is the most thrillingly wide-open the SEC has felt in a long time. After years of the conference crown running through Athens or Tuscaloosa, this year it feels like things could still go in any number of directions. Georgia already has a loss, falling in a thriller at Alabama ... which the Tide responded to by promptly losing to Vanderbilt the very next week. Tennessee looked like a war machine until the Vols got nipped by Arkansas. Ole Miss? LSU? Texas A&M? Name a school, and chances are they've still got a shot. Oh, and don't forget about Texas, still undefeated but with several big tests still to come.

All of which is awfully exciting, provided that your goal is to enjoy as much high-stakes college football as possible. But if your goal is to ensure that the conference gets as many teams into the College Football Playoff as possible — if, say, your name rhymes with Creg Crankey — all this parity is just about your worst nightmare. Because if things break wrong, a crowded field of at-large contenders could conspire to leave the SEC with as little as [shudder] four or even three teams in the field when the music stops. How? Let's break it down.

The top tier of the SEC eats itself alive

We'll simplify things a bit by breaking this down into two tiers. The first is comprised of the inner-circle contenders, teams that have one or zero losses and feel like they're on the surest footing for a conference title and automatic CFP spot: Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. At least one of these teams feels like a lock to make the Playoff, and likely at least two.

But there's a catch: All four of the schools above still have ample opportunity to beat each other. Texas hosts Georgia next weekend, while Tennessee travels to Bryant-Denny before another road trip to play the Dawgs in Athens in November. And that's not even including the conference title game, where two of these four could very well face off in Atlanta.

There's a chance that this all resolves itself relatively cleanly. Texas runs the table, say, while Alabama beats Tennessee. But there's also a chance that things go absolutely haywire: Imagine, if you will, a world in which Georgia beats Texas but loses to Tennessee, while the Vols knock off Alabama. Now the Dawgs and the Tide both have two losses each, with the Horns facing Tennessee for the SEC title — and the loser getting stuck with a second L as well. It's not too fanciful to imagine a world in which the only SEC team with one loss is the team with the conference's automatic bid, leaving a bunch of flawed resumes left to wait on the committee's decision.

The best of the rest falter down the stretch

Now let's get to tier two, the one-loss teams that could feasibly still contend for a conference title but are more realistically hoping to snag an at-large spot in the playoff: Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M and Missouri. (We could technically include Oklahoma here, but come on, have you seen the Sooners lately?)

Again, the schedule features plenty of pitfalls. A&M still has LSU and Texas left, plus a couple of very chaotic road trips to South Carolina and Auburn. LSU has a gauntlet home, including a CFP elimination game against Ole Miss on Saturday followed by trips to Arkansas and A&M and home games against Alabama and Oklahoma. Even if Ole Miss survives Death Valley this week, the next three games are vs. Oklahoma, at Arkansas and then [gulp] vs. Georgia. Missouri probably has the easiest remaining slate, and even they have a road trip to Tuscaloosa. (Plus, are you really trusting Eli Drinkwitz's team to not stub their toe at some point?)

Whereas the four teams in tier one mostly just have a round robin to worry about, these teams could all get left out in the cold entirely. Say A&M loses to Texas, LSU loses to Ole Miss, A&M and Alabama, Ole Miss loses to Georgia and Missouri loses to the Tide — are you confident that any of those teams are Playoff-bound, especially given the Aggies' non-conference loss to Notre Dame in Week 1?

Best-case scenario for the SEC in the College Football Playoff

A couple of teams separate themselves, while a couple more avoid enough pitfalls to get the inevitable SEC bump from the committee. If Texas, Georgia and Alabama all finish the regular season with one loss, they should all be locks for the Playoff, regardless of who makes, wins and loses the conference title game. (Unfortunately, this scenario would sacrifice Tennessee, which, sorry Vols.) That scenario also allows for Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Missouri to all still finish with two losses, which, in a league this loaded, figures to be good enough for at least one and possibly more to earn at-large spots — especially with good results elsewhere, like contenders in the ACC (Clemson, SMU) and Big-12 (Kansas State, Iowa State, BYU, Utah) all faltering at least once and potentially multiple times.

Everyone can take a deep breath; this was just an intellectual exercise, and the committee is certain to value the attrition involved in making your way through an 18-team megaconference slate. But if things don't break right, don't be surprised if the SEC's haul is a bit lighter than expected.