College Football Playoff: Which non-playoff teams could win their conference in 2025?

A non-playoff team from last year ends up winning its league to get in next season, why not them?
Carson Hansen, Iowa State Cyclones
Carson Hansen, Iowa State Cyclones / Julio Aguilar/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

We are still in the wake of the conclusion of the first 12-team College Football Playoff. On Monday night, we saw No. 8 Ohio State defeat No. 7 Notre Dame to win a tournament for the ages. Every team that won a playoff game did not win its conference. In fact, every team that got a first-round bye for winning its respective league did not advance past the national quarterfinals. Why did this happen?

Well, momentum is a real thing. Winning a home playoff game is like winning 1.5 games because of that positive home-crowd energy can light a fire inside an underdog team do the improbable. Ohio State beat Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame in succession to win its first national title in a decade. We do have to wonder if they could have done it had their pathway been slightly different.

So what I want to do today is identify five non-playoff teams from last year who could conceivably take the spots previously occupied by Arizona State, Boise State, Clemson, Georgia and Oregon as conference champions. It may not be enough to slow down a red-hot Ohio State, but at some point, we have to believe a conference champion is going to keep on winning into the national semifinals.

Here is my pick to win each league next year if I cannot pick a team who made the playoff to do so.

ACC: Louisville Cardinals

The ACC got two teams in last year. No. 11 SMU as the ACC runner-up and No. 12 Clemson as the conference champion. I may like Clemson to repeat and win the ACC again next year, but if I cannot pick the Tigers or even the Mustangs, then give me the Louisville Cardinals! I would put Louisville into a group of teams like Georgia Tech and Miami who could make the playoff next year out of the ACC.

Picking up Miller Moss in the transfer portal out of USC is massive for the Cardinals. Jeff Brohm is a fantastic head coach. I would be shocked if he did not lead his alma mater to the playoff at some point in his coaching career. When comparing Louisville to other playoff contenders like Georgia Tech and Miami, I like Louisville's depth more than Georgia Tech's and their steadiness more than Miami's.

Clemson is still the easy pick to win the ACC right now, but keep your eyes on Louisville making it in.

Big Ten: Illinois Fighting Illini

While I fully expect either Ohio State or Penn State to win the Big Ten next year, if I cannot pick the Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions, the Indiana Hoosiers or the Oregon Ducks to repeat, then I must go with Bret Bielema's Illinois Fighting Illini. Cody Williams convinced me of this during False Start's recording from earlier today. As long as the Illini have Bielema and Luke Altmyer under center, they will be good.

Although I am skeptical about Indiana making it back into the playoff, I think we could see a different fourth team to make the tournament out of the Big Ten beyond merely the usual suspects of Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State. Illinois is going to need to hold steady and pull off an upset or two to make this happen. The Big Ten is a very top-heavy league, but Illinois makes the soft middle stronger.

Illinois is probably my fifth choice to win the Big Ten, but I give the Illini a snowball's chance to do it.

Big 12: Iowa State Cyclones

The Iowa State Cyclones were the easiest pick for me to make in this exercise. I have the Cyclones winning the Big 12 next year with Arizona State getting in as the last at-large team. To me, you could pick any number of teams to win the Big 12 outside of Arizona State. While I think teams like Kansas State and Baylor could be quite good, this league is maybe only getting two teams in next season.

Until proven otherwise, this feels like the league destined to get its conference champion in as the No. 4 seed. Iowa State would probably end up being the No. 8 ranked team before being reseeded in this exercise, assuming Arizona State holds on and captures the No. 11 seed. For what it is worth, I really like Rocco Becht's upside as a quarterback. He has a fantastic head coach in Matt Campbell.

Iowa State may have gotten pulverized by Arizona State last year, but this is a team to watch for sure!

SEC: LSU Tigers

The SEC was a very challenging one for me to pick. Since I cannot have Georgia, Tennesee or Texas up for this, then I really needed to rack my brain. Is this the year Alabama bounces back? Can I really trust someone like Ole Miss or Texas A&M? Is this the year Auburn or Florida make great strides? At the end of the day, I picked LSU over South Carolina in this exercise, as both should be playoff-caliber.

While I may like South Carolina more to make the tournament than LSU, I do question South Carolina's ceiling under Shane Beamer. This program has never won the SEC before, not even during the peak days under Steve Spurrier. What I have seen is LSU field a team every so often capable of simply stomping everyone. Nick Saban, Les Miles and Ed Orgeron all won championships in my lifetime.

I may have LSU as one of my first four teams out, but the Bayou Bengals are capable of winning it.

Group of Five: Miami RedHawks

I could be very wrong in this, but I do not think the Boise State Broncos are winning the Mountain West again and getting back into the College Football Playoff next year. Ashton Jeanty is gone and Dirk Koetter is stepping aside. That is why I am going out on a limb by saying the Miami RedHawks are not only going to win the MAC, but they are going to win the Group of Five because of their pickup.

By landing former Toledo star Dequan Finn out of the transfer portal after essentially wasting a year at Baylor, he comes back to a conference he used to dominate. Chuck Martin is one of the best head coaches no one talks about. Miami is one of the better programs in the MAC. It has been a decade since the MAC got its champion to a New Year's Six bowl. Finn does that in his final college season.

I would look at teams like Colorado State, James Madison, Navy and Tulane to win the Group of Five.

dark. Next. 2025 NFL Mock Draft: Steelers reach for QB, Cowboys pass on Jeanty. 2025 NFL Mock Draft: Steelers reach for QB, Cowboys pass on Jeanty

feed