College Football Playoff: What does Notre Dame need to do to make the 12-team field?

We're just halfway through this college football season, and it already feels like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have lived several lives. There was the season-opening win over Texas A&M that had everyone dreaming very, very big. Then there was the stunning home loss to Northern Illinois that had everyone asking whether this team would even get to eight wins (and whether Marcus Freeman was the right man for this job). Then there was the home showdown with Louisville, a rollicking game in which Notre Dame made just enough plays to survive.

But did it keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive? Now that a bye week has given the dust a chance to settle a bit, where do the Irish stand as they embark on the second half of their season? Notre Dame has righted the ship considerably of late, but if it wants to get back into the Playoff for the first time since 2020, there's still a lot of work to do — and a couple key factors are working against them.

Notre Dame's schedule could hurt its College Football Playoff case

It's not all bad news on this front: That Texas A&M win looks better and better as the Aggies round into form. But Northern Illinois has lost twice since pulling the upset in South Bend, Louisville is on a losing streak of its own and the rest of Notre Dame's schedule really doesn't offer much in the way of statement wins.

Looking ahead, it's hard to overstate just how much Notre Dame has been hurt by the early-season struggles of both Florida State and USC. Those were the two biggest games on the schedule when the year began, and now there's a very real chance that neither team will be ranked when they played the Irish. (FSU certainly won't at 1-5, and USC is sitting at 3-2 with Penn State and a road trip to Washington still on tap.)

As wild as this may sound, Notre Dame's saving grace might be ... the service academies? Both Army and Navy are in the midst of historically hot starts, and both of them could be in the mix for a Playoff spot themselves depending on how the Group of Five race shakes out. Still, even with wins over those two schools, there's just not a lot for Notre Dame to hang its hat on. The Irish will be rooting very, very hard for Texas A&M and Louisville to close strong, because without that, this schedule leaves them very vulnerable.

Will independence cost Notre Dame a spot in the College Football Playoff?

There's another CFP obstacle in Notre Dame's way, and it's one near and dear to this school and fan base's heart: independence. You could look at the glass half full here, pointing out that this means the Irish don't have to play a conference championship game and invite another chance for a loss. But with a resume this potentially thin, Notre Dame should be looking at a marquee win as a chance for a win, one it could desperately need to impress the committee.

And we haven't even gotten to the biggest downside: Unlike its Power 4 counterparts, the Irish are not eligible for an automatic bid, meaning it has to fight it out with the rest of the country for the seven at-large spots. While teams like Clemson and Kansas State can weather early losses secure in the knowledge that they still control their conference destinies, Notre Dame's independence means that its fate — especially having already dropped a game to a MAC team — will be left in the hands of a conference room full of suits. No matter how well Marcus Freeman's team plays from here, there's no way to guarantee it'll be enough, and the competition for one of those at-large spots is looking awfully crowded.

Which teams will Notre Dame have to beat out for College Football playoff at-large bid?

Everything is still very much up in the air here, but let's game this out a bit. Unless something truly shocking happens, it seems highly likely that at least two and most likely three of Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State out of the Big 10 will be ahead of Notre Dame in line; even if one of them finishes with two losses, that's no guarantee that the committee won't favor their resume over Notre Dame's anyway.

Then there's the SEC, which figures to get at least three and potentially four or five: Texas sure feels like a lock, and odds are good that some combination of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU will get to the finish line at one or two losses. Given the committees regard for the SEC and the potential edge each of those teams will have in terms of quality of losses and strength of schedule, Notre Dame would be left very vulnerable to every team on that list — save for maybe LSU, who's already lost to a USC team that the Irish will have a chance to beat to close the season.

Already the math is getting awfully tight, and we haven't even considered what might happen if chaos reigns in the ACC and somehow all three of Miami, Clemson and SMU all finish with one or fewer losses. (None of the three are set to play each other unless in a potential conference championship game in Charlotte.) That's 12 teams right there, without even including the eventual Big 12 champion and the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. Notre Dame will need at least one or two, and ideally more, of those schools to suffer multiple losses down the stretch if it wants a chance to play for a national title.