College Football Playoff projections after Week 7: Ohio State-Oregon shakes up top 5

How are you feeling about your favorite college football team? We are at roughly the halfway point of the 2024 college football season. While more and more teams are punching their tickets for bowl eligibility, others are hanging on for dear life, whether that comes to making something out of nothing or making the expanded College Football Playoff. So yeah, about that... Who do you have getting in?

Well, through the first going on all the data I have and all the games that I have watched, I feel very confident in my top 12 at this moment, as with my first four out. While so much is going to change now between the middle of October and the earliest part of December, I think I know what a playoff team looks like, or could look like. I cannot want to look back on this and see how truly wrong I was.

Let's start with the 12 teams I would have in the playoff if I had to field a tournament for this weekend.

Projected College Football Playoff field

1. Texas Longhorns (6-0) (Projected SEC champion)
2. Oregon Ducks (6-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
3. Iowa State Cyclones (6-0) (Projected Big 12 champion)
4. Clemson Tigers (5-1) (Projected ACC champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) (Projected SEC runner-up)
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) (Projected SEC at-large)
9. Miami Hurricanes (6-0) (Projected ACC runner-up)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
11. LSU Tigers (5-1) (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos (5-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

And here are the first four teams I would have out and just missing the College Football Playoff field.

Projected first four out

• 13. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) (SEC)
• 14. BYU Cougars (6-0) (Big 12 runner-up)
• 15. Tennessee Volunteers (5-1) (SEC)
• 16. Indiana Hoosiers (6-0) (Big Ten)

I will now unpack all 12 teams that I have making it in, as well as why I have those first four teams out.

Projected College Football Playoff teams

1. Texas Longhorns (6-0) (Projected SEC champion)

I don't know if it is by a sizable margin, but Texas has been the most consistently complete team all season long. They have crushed everybody they have played. While I don't think Michigan or Oklahoma will prove to be any good, Texas should be the favorite to come out of the SEC. Although I am picking the Longhorns to beat Georgia at DKR on Saturday, I don't know if they will go undefeated.

2. Oregon Ducks (6-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)

Oregon proved me wrong. This was the Oregon team I was hoping to see all season long, and the Ducks showed up in a big way over Ohio State. Dillon Gabriel may look small in stature, but he thrives in winning time. He may not be my pick right this instant to win the Heisman Trophy, but he quarterbacks the best team in the Big Ten going away. Oregon will make the playoff and win games.

3. Iowa State Cyclones (6-0) (Projected Big 12 champion)

Give Iowa State a ton of credit. They are 6-0 for the first time since right before World War II. The Cyclones win with defense and a multi-faceted offensive attack. Matt Campbell's team is taking advantage of the power void at the top of the conference. Right now, I feel that the Clones have an extra gear that nobody else can get to in the Big 12. They will be in the playoff mix all season long.

4. Clemson Tigers (5-1) (Projected ACC champion)

I nearly did it last week, but I am moving 5-1 Clemson into the projected ACC champion slot over undefeated Miami. This is because the way the Tigers are winning is impressing me. They already had a great defense. Now they have the offense to back it up. Garrett Riley is doing wonders with Cade Klubnik's growth and development. Their schedule is soft, but Clemson is destroying ACC teams now.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)

How could anyone have docked Ohio State any further than the No. 5 spot? The loser of that game was probably going to occupy this spot anyway as the best team that has to play in the first round. Ryan Day's team is immensely talented, but I do wonder if he and his coaching staff get in its own head a bit. It has ghastly results, such as quarterback Will Howard brain farting down the stretch.

6. Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) (Projected SEC runner-up)

This is my team, and no, I don't feel good about this. Georgia is 5-1, but hasn't looked like the Georgia of yesteryear for much of the season. The Clemson win looks really good on their resume. The Alabama loss is not as impressive as it was two weeks ago. This team is undisciplined defensively and goes through spells of offensive ineptitude. Regardless, this is one of college football's most talented teams.

7. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) (Projected Big Ten at-large)

Even though Penn State is 6-0 and just won on the road at USC, I have major concerns about James Franklin's ability to keep this thing on the track. The talent is undeniably there with this team. While I credit the entire team for playing its way back into the game, Penn State would not have beaten a better USC team. This team may be one win better than expected, but this is a 10-2 driving academy.

8. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) (Projected SEC at-large)

What to make of the Alabama Crimson Tide... This might be the most frustrating team to watch and cover in the Power Four. At their peak, they can be the best team in college football. Unfortunately, it is abundantly clear that this is no longer Nick Saban's team. Kalen DeBoer will have this team in the playoff, but it feels closer to a 9-3 team than it does an 11-1 one. Alabama should go around 10-2.

9. Miami Hurricanes (6-0) (Projected ACC runner-up)

Outside of South Florida, I think this past weekend did more harm than good for Miami being on a bye. The thought would other teams ahead of them would beat each other up and lose. While Ohio State did fall, I would still put the Crimson Tide ahead of them. Miami is a good team, but I don't think the Canes are ready for what is about to hit them in Clemson. That team is absolutely rolling right now.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) (Projected national independent at-large)

Notre Dame did the impossible in my eyes and overcame the brutal Week 2 home loss to Northern Illinois. Now that Marcus Freeman has his dumb loss of the season out of the way, the Fighting Irish have gotten back to playing their brand of football. As long as this team plays great defense and runs the ball with conviction, they will be hard to beat. They may not be able to afford another loss, though.

11. LSU Tigers (5-1) (Projected SEC at-large)

Look at who cracked the top 12 this week as the so-called last team in! That would be Brian Kelly's LSU Tigers. Although they might be closer to paper tigers than serious national championship contenders, give he and his team credit for defeating a worthy adversary in Ole Miss at home for Magnolia. That was a program win, one where LSU showed it belongs, while Ole Miss so does not.

12. Boise State Broncos (5-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

It would be such a shame if we didn't get to see Ashton Jeanty run the Boise State Broncos into the College Football Playoff. While there are other teams to keep an eye on out of the Group of Five, I feel strongly that only Boise State is going to be able to hang with a Power Four team in the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup. Should there be Big 12 chaos, there is a chance that this team could be the No. 4 seed...

Projected first four teams out of College Football Playoff

13. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) (SEC)

Texas A&M is getting dangerously close to being back in the College Football Playoff field. After losing at home Week 1 to Notre Dame, the Aggies have since rattled off five straight wins. It is amazing what great coaching can do for a talented roster. Mike Elko is in his bag. As long as Conner Weigman continues to blossom in Collin Klein's offense, no one will want to play this A&M squad.

14. BYU Cougars (6-0) (Big 12 runner-up)

BYU looked the part vs. Arizona on Saturday. The Cougars are 6-0, bowl eligibile and seem to be on a collision course with Iowa State in Arlington. A lot can change between now and the end of the season, but I only have one Big 12 team in the playof field. BYU does have the big non-conference win over SMU, but again, those two newcomers to the Power Four are still largely unproven in most eyes.

15. Tennessee Volunteers (5-1) (SEC)

I have real concerns about the Tennessee Volunteers. We anointed Nico Iamaleava as a superstar college football quarterback far sooner than we should have. Tennessee lost last week to Arkansas and had to be taken to overtime vs. Florida at home. Right now, I have a hard time seeing the Vols beating Alabama and Georgia this season. I would honestly take Vanderbilt over them on Nov. 30.

16. Indiana Hoosiers (6-0) (Big Ten)

We're still here! That's right. The Indiana Hoosiers are 6-0 and very much alive to make the expanded playoff out of the Big Ten. What Curt Cignetti has done since taking over for Tom Allen has been nothing short of extraordinary. Indiana went from a team with no offense to a team with a great one. As long as the defense holds up, I have a hard time seeing this team winning fewer than 10 games.

I feel really good about these 16 teams, but all it takes is one more week to change everything.