Ranking the 4 College Football Playoff quarterfinals by upset potential

Through the first four games of the 2024-25 College Football Playoff, we have arrived at chalk. Every home team was favored in the first round and every single one of them advanced to the national quarterfinals. No. 7 Notre Dame crushed No. 10 Indiana, No. 6 Penn State obliterated No. 11 SMU, No. 5 Texas outshined No. 12 Clemson late, and No. 8 Ohio State wiped the floor with No. 9 Tennessee.

Meanwhile, No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State were waiting for their national quarterfinals opponents to finally emerge. With chalk, we have No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl and No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas in the Peach Bowl.

And for those who have not been paying close attention, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State are overseeded as two of the highest-ranked conference champions. Boise State would have been the No. 10 seed otherwise and Arizona State would have been the No. 12. No. 12 Clemson was actually ranked No. 16 before getting shoehorned in as the last team to make the 12-team playoff.

Now that we know who is left, let me briefly power ranked each quarterfinal based on upset potential.

4. Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (-11)

No. 6 Penn State laying 11 points at State Farm Stadium in Greater Phoenix is not the biggest spread heading into the national quarterfinals, but it is the one that I feel the most confident about the favored team covering. Barring something unforeseen, Penn State should win the Fiesta Bowl going away over Boise State. James Franklin does not lose games he is favored, only ones as the underdog.

Like Penn State, Boise State is well-coached and can run the ball effectively. Maddux Madsen has improved as a quarterback as the season has progressed. Unfortunately, Boise State simply does not have the dudes to compete with what Penn State has for a full four quarters. Penn State would have to play with its food and get caught doing so to have any real shot of getting upset by Boise State.

One of the reasons I love Penn State's chances of winning a national title is they have an easy path.

3. Peach Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns (-13.5)

Although I will be at this game and rooting hard for my girlfriend's alma mater of Arizona State, Texas should win this game comfortably. Arizona State is an emerging power in the Big 12, but Texas is much further along in their program resurgence under their galvanizing head coach. I do not trust Quinn Ewers at all to stay healthy, just like I do not really trust Arch Manning to throw the ball at all.

Unfortunately, I do trust the Longhorns' defense and rushing attack. Arizona State is built to play spoiler, but the Sun Devils can only win in one way, and that is by way of the shootout. The 13.5-point spread is a lot of points Texas is laying, but they might actually cover. Although I am giving Arizona State a puncher's chance at the upset bid, it would take Texas self-destructing more than anything here.

Arizona State could upset Texas, but I am not counting on it, nor am I counting on them winning it all.

2. Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks (-2.5) vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes

We have arrived at the first of two games where I think an upset could occur. That would be a rematch from earlier in the regular season between No. 1 Oregon and No. 8 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State lost in the final seconds on a poorly-timed slide by Will Howard over in Eugene. So far, Oregon is the only team in the country without a loss on their resume. Could Ohio State get the best of them?

I am not ruling it out. In fact, this might be the game that I end up picking an upset to occur. I reserve the right to not make my official pick on these quarterfinals until Monday's episode of False Start. At that point, I will be locked in. I think Ohio State has the coaches and players to keep pace with Oregon. I wonder how Oregon will respond if and when they get punched in the mouth in the playoff.

The Grandaddy of Them All might actually give us the best game of the playoff up to this point.

1. Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (-2) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

And we have arrived at the game I am the most emotionally invested in. No. 2 Georgia is a slight two-point favorite over No. 7 Notre Dame at a neutral site. To date, Georgia has never lost to Notre Dame in its three previous meetings, but that all could change on New Year's Day night. This is because Georgia will be having Gunner Stockton make his first career start vs. a physical Notre Dame team.

To me, I still think Georgia gets it done because they simply have more size and speed at pretty much every position on the field when it comes to Notre Dame. However, I do see a very realistic situation in which Notre Dame pulls off the slight upset. Riley Leonard will need to play mistake-free football, while Georgia ends up being minus-two in the turnover department, just like they are in the spread.

Take the under in this ballgame, as whatever team is able to run the ball the best will probably win it.

Note: Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.