No team was a bigger loser in the third College Football Playoff rankings of the season than the 8-2 Tennessee Volunteers. The Vols suffered their second defeat of the season last week at rival Georgia. It was not a pretty game for Tennessee. After getting out to a 10-0 lead, Tennessee once again had no answers for the punishing Georgia defense offensively. This second loss might have cost them...
This was only further illustrated by how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee went about slotting and ranking the Vols on Tuesday night. They had Tennessee ranked one spot behind Georgia at No. 11, but because of conference tie-ins, Tennessee was the first team out. With only games vs. UTEP and Vanderbilt remaining, Tennessee simply does not have another resume booster left now.
Here is what the College Football Playoff rankings look like heading into Week 13. I have concerns...
- Oregon Ducks (11-0)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1)
- Texas Longhorns (9-1)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1)
- Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2)
- Miami Hurricanes (9-1)
- Ole Miss Rebels (8-2)
- Georgia Bulldogs (8-2)
- Tennessee Volunteers (8-2)
- Boise State Broncos (9-1)
- SMU Mustangs (9-1)
- BYU Cougars (9-1)
- Texas A&M Aggies (8-2)
- Colorado Buffaloes (8-2)
- Clemson Tigers (8-2)
- South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3)
- Army Black Knights (9-0)
- Tulane Green Wave (9-2)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2)
- Iowa State Cyclones (8-2)
- Missouri Tigers (7-3)
- UNLV Rebels (8-2)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3)
Based on the rankings, here is how the 12-team College Football Playoff field would come together.
- Oregon Ducks (11-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
- Texas Longhorns (9-1) (Projected SEC champion)
- Miami Hurricanes (9-1) (Projected ACC champion)
- Boise State Broncos (9-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
- Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
- BYU Cougars (9-1) (Projected Big 12 champion)
And for further context, these are the first four teams out of the 12-team playoff field for this week.
- 13. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) (SEC)
- 14. SMU Mustangs (9-1) (Projected ACC runner-up)
- 15. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) (SEC)
- 16. Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)
Now that we have all that information, let's unpack what needs to happen for Tennessee to get in now.
Tennessee Volunteers behind the College Football Playoff field eight-ball
The worst part about this for Tennessee is not only is UTEP not a good team, but the Vols will not get the credit they may deserve for beating presumably a six-win Vanderbilt team. The Commodores were a fun story for a while this season, but water has found its level for Clark Lea's program. Tennessee is going to need one, maybe two teams ranked ahead of them to slip up moving forward.
In the SEC, Tennessee would need Texas to look fraudulent vs. Kentucky, Texas A&M or whoever they play in the conference title bout should they get there. I am quite dubious on the Longhorns, but they should be the highest ranked team in the SEC this week, even though I don't fully agree with it or really believe in them long-term. Could Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia drop a third game this season?
A loss by the Crimson Tide, Rebels or Bulldogs should do the trick. The problem is I don't really feel a conference loss is coming for either team. Alabama has Oklahoma and Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Ole Miss has an interesting one with Florida, but then lowly Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. Georgia hosts a lifeless UMass team before hosting a feisty Georgia Tech team in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate.
I would say even one of those games going in Tennessee's favor by way of an Alabama, Ole Miss or Georgia loss is a tad too farfetched to really work yourself up into a lather over. It could happen, but picking a loss among those six games is not worth your time. From there, Tennessee really needs rampant Big Ten inflation and rampant Notre Dame nonsense to cease being so that they can get in.
That right there is my issue with all of this. Among those five teams in question in Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State, two of them are going to get in and do next to nothing in the playoff. And no, I am not talking about Ohio State or Oregon, which have shown me up to this point that they belong. Indiana is throwing a wrench in everything. Notre Dame is good, but is Penn State?
I think we will get some clarity if Ohio State does what it should do and hands Indiana its first loss of the season. They will drop considerably, probably down to where Tennessee will be ranked heading into Week 14. Tennessee has the best win – over Alabama – between them, but the worst loss in Arkansas, one that could get worse if the Razorbacks somehow lose their final two games of the year.
I would also say this. If Notre Dame loses to either Army or USC, the have no business being in the playoff because of how bad the Northern Illinois defeat looks. I would also say that if Penn State loses to either Minnesota or Maryland, they have no business being in either. Penn State would not have a quality win, but would have one quality loss and another not so much. You see what I am getting at?
Overall, the Big Ten really only deserves to get three teams in, but will probably get four if chalk prevails. Chalk is in Notre Dame's favor as well. In short, Tennessee is going to need a ton of help to be the fifth SEC team. If Texas A&M were to somehow prove Texas to be fraudulent, then that opens up a whole other can of worms. The fact of the matter is this: The Arkansas loss will keep them out.
In most years, Tennessee would be good enough to get into the 12-team playoff, but this is not it.