2-loss chaos: How will College Football Playoff Selection Committee sort out the SEC?

Water will eventually find its level, but liquid is sloshing everywhere right now. The latest week of college football action answered a few questions for us, as well as presented us with a few more that need to be further dissected. Right now, the SEC has technically seven teams alive when it comes to making the 12-team College Football Playoff, from one-loss Texas down to three-loss South Carolina.

While there may be some debate over if Texas is as good as the Longhorns' record indicates, we find ourselves having to navigate a logjam existing among the five two-loss teams between them and South Carolina. Yes, the Gamecocks are still in the mix to make the playoff, as ESPN's FPI gives them a 10.9-percent chance to get in. South Carolina must beat Wofford, and then Clemson, and then pray.

Texas may not get in if the Longhorns lose to Texas A&M in two weeks, or heaven forbid, to Kentucky on Saturday. If they are 11-1 (7-1) with their lone loss being a bludgeoning at home to Georgia, you have to like their chances of getting in, no matter what happens in Atlanta in a few weeks. As far as the five teams with two losses (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas A&M), it will be wild.

Here is how I think the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will order the seven SEC teams.

How College Football Playoff Selection Committee could rank SEC teams

Rather than give them a number, here is how the Selection Committee will probably order the teams.

• Texas Longhorns
• Alabama Crimson Tide
• Ole Miss Rebels
• Georgia Bulldogs
• Tennessee Volunteers
• Texas A&M Aggies
• South Carolina Gamecocks

Texas will be ranked inside the top four and will get a top-four seed as the projected SEC champion. For as much as I doubt if the Longhorns really are the best team in this league, it is currently hard to justify having a two-loss SEC team ranked ahead of them at this point of the season. Since they are the least battle-tested, the Selection Committee will do them no favors with a second SEC defeat.

I would then with great confidence say Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia will be ranked somewhere in the No. 6 to No. 11 range. Georgia may end up being the better of the three teams, but the head-to-head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss are too recent for the Selection Committee to have the Dawgs ranked ahead of them right now. That could change with how these next three weekends shake out.

After that, I would say with great confidence that Tennessee and Texas A&M will be among the first four teams out. They would be in the same group with the projected ACC and Big 12 runners-up. From the ACC, it would be either Miami or SMU getting in with the other being one of the first four out. With the Big 12, it would be either BYU or Colorado getting in with the other being a first-four team out.

South Carolina would be in that next grouping of teams that are still technically alive to make the playoff, but not really. The Associated Press ranked them No. 19. I would venture to guess they will be among the next four out with the likes of Army, Clemson and Tulane. They would be ranked ahead of fringe contenders like Arizona State, Illinois, Iowa State, UNLV and Washington State in some order.

I estimate Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia will represent the SEC in the playoff field this week.