College Football Playoff: What do the Clemson Tigers need to make the 12-team field?

Without question, the Clemson Tigers will be one of the most fascinating teams to cover and follow along with as they make their push back to the College Football Playoff. Throughout most of the four-team format, Clemson was the perennial power in the ACC. They made the playoff six straight seasons from 2015 to 2020, winning two nationals titles in 2016 and 2018, and playing for two more.

But in the wake of NIL, Clemson has pulled back considerably. The Tigers have not made the playoff since the COVID season of 2020, and head coach Dabo Swinney refuses to use the transfer portal. While Florida State has risen and fallen hard since then, playoff expansion does an interesting number of things to the sport itself, and particularly the ACC.

How many ACC teams will make the CFP this year?

In most offseason machinations of how a 12-team playoff would shake out, between four and five spots belong to the SEC, between three and four go to the Big Ten, the Group of Five champion gets one, and between the ACC, Big 12 and Notre Dame, we are talking about between two and four spots. Clemson was always in playoff consideration, even after last year's slow start, but it will not be easy.

Here is what the Tigers' remaining schedule looks like. Right now, it looks to be as soft as Charmin.

And here is a look at what Clemson's College Football Playoff resume looks like entering Week 7.

Looking at what Clemson has done up to this point in the season, they should get credit for wiping the floor with everyone not named Georgia on their schedule. While being 3-0 in ACC play with wins over North Carolina State, Stanford and Florida State are impressive based strictly on the margin of victory, I don't know if any of those teams are definitively going to a bowl game this season, folks.

And when taking a look at the seven remaining regular-season games on Clemson's slate, Pittsburgh and Virginia are arguably their two toughest opponents, just like we all thought they would be. Louisville and Virginia Tech could be feisty. Wake Forest probably won't be. As for South Carolina at the end of the season, this could be Shane Beamer's final Palmetto Bowl should South Carolina lose.

Besides winning out and getting to 12-1 (8-0) as ACC champions, does Clemson have a pathway in?

First, can Clemson make the ACC championship game?

Rather than writing Clemson off as a two-loss team, I am going to look for the positive. The ACC is looking like it will get two teams in at roughly the halfway point of the season. In terms of a bigger brand and one that won't be enamored by the specter of simply being in the playoff, I know that Clemson will put up a fight, no matter who they play. This team is well-coached with a great defense.

Right now, I would say in a 17-team ACC that two conference losses will prevent a team from getting to Charlotte to play in the conference championship. Through six weeks, only Cal, Georgia Tech, Stanford, North Carolina, North Carolina State and Wake Forest have been essentially eliminated. At one loss, you are playing with fire, so it matters which potential conference loss it might be for Clemson.

The good news is that of the five remaining unbeaten teams in ACC play, Clemson draws Pittsburgh and Virginia. Getting the head-to-head tiebreaker would in theory put the Tigers ahead of them in the quest of getting to Charlotte. The problem is they don't play the other two unbeaten teams in ACC play: undefeated Miami and one-loss SMU. Right this instant, those are their two biggest threats.

Should Clemson, Miami and SMU all win out, Miami would be 12-0, while Clemson and SMU would be 11-1 with losses to Georgia and BYU in non-conference play. Since there was no head-to-head competition, the next determinant is winning percentage against all common opponents. I would have a hard team seeing Miami not get to Charlotte at a perfect 12-0. Simply put, Clemson really needs to see SMU drop a conference game. They have a harder schedule.

So of those three playoff contenders out of the ACC, I would say Miami is the most likely to get to Charlotte, followed by Clemson, followed by SMU. It should be noted that SMU might have the tougher strength of schedule should the Ponies run the table over Clemson. Also, their three-point home loss to Big 12 contender BYU looks better than Clemson's bad loss to SEC contender Georgia.

Can Clemson reach the College Football Playoff without winning the ACC?

So can Clemson get into the playoff without winning the ACC Championship? There are three ways, but none of which seem overly promising. Assuming t first way would be getting to the ACC Championship game and losing it. It could be to Miami, SMU or whomever. Even losing to a Pittsburgh or Virginia in a rematch may not look too bad, as beating the same team twice in a season is so difficult to pull off.

For my money, if Clemson loses a close game to the ACC champion in Charlotte, I think the Selection Committee would consider them as one of the last two teams in at 11-2 (8-0), especially if Georgia either wins the SEC or gets in as one of seven at-large teams. I don't know if it is 50/50 getting in that way, but the 13th data point should not serve as a punishment for a Clemson team that is on a roll.

If Clemson does not make it to the ACC championship game, they could get in as an at-large team at 11-1 (8-0), but that is cutting it really close. In this exercise, SMU gets to Charlotte over Clemson. If SMU wins the ACC at 12-1 and beats previously undefeated Miami, both will get in. Maybe Clemson makes it three ACC teams? Again, it may come down to strength of schedule. Clemson will be on the bubble.

If Clemson getting in as an 11-2 (8-0) ACC runner-up is a 50/50 proposition, I would say getting in as a 11-1 (8-0) at-large is about a 25-percent chance of getting Clemson in. The more I think about, Clemson losing another regular-season game really puts the Tigers on the brink of elimination. Again, I don't think the loss can be to Pittsburgh or Virginia, as the Tigers will need a ton of help to get to Charlotte.

Clemson needs wins over quality opponents more than anything in the world. They could get up to three before Charlotte (Pittsburgh, Virginia, TBD), but the Tigers don't have one right now. To be fair, most contenders don't have more than one right now. All I know is Clemson does not seem to have the strength of schedule on the horizon to get in with one more regular-season loss. I don't see it.

So to bring it all back home, Clemson will get in as the ACC Champion, could get in as an 11-2 (8-0) ACC runner-up, and could conceivably get in as an 11-1 (8-0) ACC at-large if they somehow don't get to Charlotte. At 10-2 (7-1), they have to win the ACC. With the way the league is shaping up, I cannot guarantee they will get there with one conference loss, especially if it comes to Pittsburgh or Virginia.

Entering Week 7, Clemson has a 36.3-percent chance of making the playoff, according to ESPN's FPI, which happens to be the 14th best in FBS.