College Football Playoff: What do the Tennessee Volunteers need to make the 12-team field?

Through the first six weeks of the 2024 college football season, I don't think there is a more fascinating future College Football Playoff discussion on the horizon than the 4-1 (1-1) Tennessee Volunteers. This was a team that I had going 11-1 (7-1) at the start of the year. I had the Vols defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide, with their lone loss being on the road to the Georgia Bulldogs later in the year.

However, their Week 6 road loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks was not as surprising as it was alarming. With how well the Hogs have played this year under Sam Pittman, this game was seen as the third-hardest one left on Tennessee's schedule, after Alabama and Georgia, of course. For Tennessee to comfortably get into the playoff, the Vols needed to win two of those three, but now they sit at 0-1...

How many SEC teams will make the College Football Playoff this year?

In most offseason machinations of what a 12-team College Football Playoff could look like, the SEC would get either four or five teams in, the Big Ten would get either three or four teams in, and the Group of Five would get its automatic qualifier spot. That leaves the final two-to-four bids to the ACC, the Big 12 and Notre Dame. The SEC may get five teams in, definitely not six. But maybe four?

Before I really unpack Tennessee's chances of getting in, here is who they have left to play this year.

And here is a look at what Tennessee's College Football Playoff resume looks like entering Week 7.

While the three blowout wins in the non-conference so far are impressive, Kent State is terrible, North Carolina State isn't any good and Chattanooga competes at the FCS level. The good news is that the road win over Oklahoma still carries weight, as the Sooners are a fringe playoff contender in the SEC this year, albeit an incredibly unlikely one. Regardless, that is seen as one quality win for the time being.

As far as Tennessee's remaining schedule is concerned, they will be favored in five of their final seven games. Unfortunately, losing to both Alabama and Georgia would remove the Vols from the playoff conversation entirely. At 9-3 (5-3), they have no shot, especially if Oklahoma fades in the second half. Tennessee does not need to win out, but must go 6-1 with either one loss to Alabama or Georgia.

Tennessee can still get to Atlanta and win the SEC, but how many other ways can they still get in?

First, can Tennessee make it to the SEC Championship Game?

Right now, only two teams in the SEC are removed from the playoff equation. That would be Auburn and Mississippi State, as both teams have four losses on the year. And if we wanted to cross off two more teams, it would probably have to be Kentucky and South Carolina, as both of their losses on the year have come in SEC play. They are not completely eliminated from getting to Atlanta, but almost.

If Tennessee wins out, they could get to Atlanta at 11-1 (7-1). Keep in mind that if Arkansas wins out to finish the year at 10-2 (7-1), they would get in over Tennessee because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. To increase their chances of getting to Atlanta, Tennessee would have head-to-head tiebreakers over Florida and Vanderbilt to eliminate them, in addition to hurting Alabama and Georgia.

As far as teams who could get to Atlanta that Tennessee will not face, they need to see teams like LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas and Texas A&M lose. Missouri and Ole Miss have conference losses already to Texas A&M and Kentucky, respectively. LSU and Texas A&M have losses in the non-conference to USC and Notre Dame, and both have playoff implications. Texas is still undefeated.

To put a bow on whether or not Tennessee can win the SEC: Yes, the Volunteers can, but they really need LSU, Texas and Texas A&M to lose conference games, as well as not lose the head-to-head tiebreakers to teams like Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Right now, the pathway to Atlanta is too murky to navigate. The only two teams that will not be going there are Auburn and Mississippi State.

Can Tennessee make the College Football Playoff without winning the SEC?

I think this is Tennessee's most likely pathway in. If the Volunteers go 11-1 (7-1), the Volunteers will get in, no matter if they get to Atlanta or not. Even with a second loss coming in the SEC championship, I don't think the Selection Committee is going to punish the SEC runner-up too badly, unless they get blown out. The 13th data point should be seen as a bonus, not a punishment.

The big question with Tennessee is would the Volunteers get in as one of three or four at-large teams in the SEC with a 10-2 (6-2) record. I think it comes down to who that other loss is to. If they go 6-1 the rest of the way, splitting Alabama and Georgia, I think they could get in as the No. 10 or No. 11 seed. Alabama and Georgia might get in as two losses teams. Georgia could even get in at 9-3...

Obviously, if they drop both, they are out of the conversation because losses to Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia will just not be good enough. The even bigger question is what if Tennessee beats Alabama and Georgia, but loses somewhere else along the way? I think they still get in, but a second loss would have to be to Florida, Kentucky or Vanderbilt. You can't lose to Mississippi State or UTEP.

So to bring it all back home, Tennessee gets in with 11 wins no matter what because the level of competition in the SEC will undeniably justify that. If they go 10-2, the pathway in still looks pretty good, but it is not a certainty. A second, or third, signature win would do them a world of good. I am counting Oklahoma (for now) as a signature win. They need to beat either Alabama or Georgia now to have any real shot.

Entering Week 7, Tennessee has a 46.6-percent chance of making the playoff, according to ESPN's FPI, which happens to be the 11th best in FBS.