College Football Playoff: What do the LSU Tigers need to make the 12-team field?

To be totally honest, I have my reservations about the LSU Tigers making the College Football Playoff this season. They have been completely untested up to this point, and haven't looked particularly great in their two biggest games of the season so far: A neutral-site loss to USC over Labor Day Weekend and a close close a few weeks back in their SEC opener at the South Carolina Gamecocks.

That being said, the Tigers have the necessary schedule to get into the 12-team playoff, even if they drop another game. Maybe even two, who knows? What is apparent is the Tigers will have an opportunity on Saturday vs. major rival Ole Miss in the Magnolia Bowl to prove that they are not made of paper and that they have some serious bite to them. This could might maybe be a playoff team...

The big question now is if LSU will be able to survive its remaining seven-game gauntlet to get in.

How many SEC teams will make the College Football Playoff this year?

In every offseason machination I had in putting together a 12-team playoff, the SEC usually ended up getting between four and five teams in. The Big Ten normally got three or four teams in. Obviously, the Group of Five got its champion in. As for the other two to four bids, those would typically end up going to the ACC, the Big 12 and Notre Dame. I feel like it will be either four or five in the SEC this year.

Before I really dive into if LSU has a serious shot at making the playoff, here is its remaining schedule.

And for those who don't remember, here are the results of LSU's first five games of the 2024 season.

Not going to lie. LSU has a very weak resume right now. Their best win is over South Carolina, but there is a chance the Gamecocks don't even go bowling this year. The neutral-site loss to USC is looking worse by the week, as the Trojans have lost to Michigan and Minnesota since. UCLA may be the worst team in the Power Four. South Alabama and Nicholls don't even really register at this point.

However, the remaining seven games on LSU's schedule present an interesting opportunity. They are all SEC games against teams who haven't been eliminated from playoff contention just yet. Florida is hanging on by a thread, as is Arkansas and Vanderbilt. Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Texas A&M are still very much playoff contenders this point out of the SEC. LSU has not lost an SEC game yet...

If LSU wins out, the Tigers are obviously getting to Atlanta, as maybe only Texas would be 8-0 as well.

First, can LSU make it to the SEC Championship Game?

Of course, they can ... on paper. I think right now there are only two teams in the SEC who definitively cannot get to Atlanta. That would be Auburn and Mississippi State, as they each have four losses on the season. I would say teams like Kentucky and South Carolina are very close to being crossed off as well, sooner than us potentially crossing off the likes of Arkansas and Vanderbilt, but not Florida.

Because the Tigers' lone loss on the year already came to USC in a non-conference game, LSU may be the only team in the SEC that could get to the conference title bout with a 9-3 (6-2) record. I don't know how the tiebreakers work out, but that is something in their favor for the time being. I would say right this instant, the one loss LSU may not be able to afford would be to Texas A&M who is 5-1 (3-0).

With their brutal second-half schedule, I think the chances of LSU getting to Atlanta are quite slim. The Tigers have seven conference games left. They have not looked the part of a playoff team yet, but there is another thing going for them as well. Brian Kelly-led teams tend to get better as the season progresses. They usually fall into a hole at the start, but have a knack for catching fire late.

In short, LSU totally has a chance of getting to the SEC Championship Game, but don't count on it.

Can LSU make the College Football Playoff without winning the SEC?

With one more loss, LSU would almost certainly get into the College Football Playoff, regardless of if the Tigers make it to Atlanta or not. The schedule is tough enough to where a loss to any team left on their slate would not be insurmountable, especially given the amount of quality wins that could be had on LSU's resume. I mean, we could be looking at five or even six quality wins the rest of the way.

As it is with pretty much everyone in the SEC, 11 wins gets a team into the playoff. And to be totally honest, outside of Georgia, LSU might be the next best team in the SEC that could get in with three regular-season losses. I wouldn't count on it, but it is possible. For example, LSU could split with Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Texas A&M and may still get in based on strength of record, etc.

If the Tigers were to somehow get to Atlanta with a 10-2 (7-1) record, I think there is a chance they make it into the playoff, no matter what. If they got blown out by a Georgia, Tennessee or Texas, I cannot say for certain that it will be held against them. What I will say is 11 wins gets them in, 10 wins almost certainly does and nine wins has the Tigers playing with fire. They would need a lot of help.

Overall, LSU has a plethora of pathways into the College Football Playoff, but it is all going to come down to execution as well as the team believing in itself. Outside of those who congregate in Baton Rouge for a good time, nobody believes in this team. It might be good, but it doesn't appear to be special. This could be an 11-1 team. It could also be a 7-5 team. How much faith do you have in LSU?

Entering Week 7, LSU has a 14.7-percent chance of making the playoff, according to ESPN's FPI, which happens to be the 23rd best in FBS.