More bites at the apple gives more college football programs more opportunities to show the world at large what they got. One of the biggest advantages to College Football Playoff expansion has to be more seats at the table. While four teams worked in the first decade of this postseason format, tripling it to 12 afforded many programs their first shot at playing for a national title in over a decade.
In the first 12-team playoff, we saw teams like Arizona State, Boise State, Indiana, Penn State, SMU and Tennessee make it in for the first time. We also saw Oregon make the playoff for the first time in a decade. While Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Texas had all made it at least one time before, they all made the playoff at least once in the four seasons prior to this past one.
To date, here is every program that has qualified for the College Football Playoff at least once before.
- ACC: Clemson Tigers, Florida State Seminoles, SMU Mustangs
- Big Ten: Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan Wolverines, Michigan State Spartans, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions, Washington Huskies*
- Big 12: Arizona State Sun Devils, Cincinnati Bearcats*, TCU Horned Frogs
- SEC: Alabama Crimson Tide, Georgia Bulldogs, LSU Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners*, Tennessee Volunteers, Texas Longhorns
- Group of Five: Boise State Broncos
- National Independent: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
* = Teams who made the College Football Playoff as a member of another conference previously.
So, now that we know what teams have made the College Football Playoff at least once before, the next question we need to ask ourselves is, who is next? We had six newcomers a year ago, so it could be that many, possibly even more. Right now, I think that number is going to be closer to three or four for the foreseeable future, as many of the teams who made it last year are definitely going back again.
Heading into spring practice, here are my 10 best guesses in the Power Four to make it the first time.
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers
I feel like I would be doing a disservice to the Big Ten if I did not throw a second team into the ring. This was the only league that sent four teams into the inaugural 12-team playoff a season ago in Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State. I will touch on my favorite new team to come out of the Big Ten in just a bit, but for now, I think I am going to bite the bullet and say that it could be Nebraska.
This is the third year Matt Rhule has been in charge in Lincoln. It is usually the year where he wins double-digit games at his current rebuilding project. He did it at Temple, he did it at Baylor and he could do it again at Nebraska. Much of this is contingent on Dylan Raiola growing in Dana Holgorsen's offense. Rhule has not made many friends since taking over in Lincoln, but he may have a good team.
If Nebraska does not approach eight or nine wins this year, he might be out like he was in Charlotte...
9. Texas Tech Red Raiders
There are two teams in the Big 12 I like more to pull this off this season than Texas Tech, but I like the Red Raiders a little bit more than I do the Baylor Bears to potentially shock everyone. We know how great of a recruiter Joey McGuire is. I have really enjoyed watching Texas Tech make West Virignia look foolish at the end of every season. To me, this is all about returning talent and Behren Morton.
Texas Tech may have the narrowest margin of any team on this list to potentially make the playoff, but if the Red Raiders were to win around 10 or 11 games, that might be enough to get them to Arlington for the first time. From there, what is to say Texas Tech cannot be what Arizona State, Boise State, Indiana or SMU were last year? The Red Raiders are knocking on the door, but will anyone open it up?
It is all about Texas Tech going from a top-half team in the Big 12 and becoming a top-quarter one.
8. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
This is going to go one of two ways for the Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech. Either the Yellow Jackets will be this year's version of SMU in the ACC, or whatever the hell happened to North Carolina State. The ACC was able to get two teams into the playoff last year in Clemson and SMU. Not to say that it will be getting a guaranteed two spots into the tournament this year, but Georgia Tech is on the list.
Brent Key is in his bag leading his alma mater. Getting Haynes King back at quarterback for one more year is huge. While losing defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci to the Baltimore Ravens does not help, Buster Faulkner may be overqualified as the Jackets' offensive coordinator. Georgia Tech has a narrow line to walk, but if they get to around 10 wins, they will have a real shot at making the playoff.
My only concern is I like a few teams ahead of them in the ACC with a bit more upside than they have.
7. Louisville Cardinals
The team I really like to challenge Clemson in the ACC this year is Louisville. Jeff Brohm is one helluva coach, now in year three leading his alma mater. Over the last two years, we have seen Louisville at times punch above their weight class. This is what the Purdue Boilermakers often did under Brohm's watch. Adding Miller Moss at quarterback intrigues me. My concern is, can he play defense?
Louisville is going to be able to score points in bunches, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals can stop a nosebleed defensively. If you live by the shootout, you are inclined to die by it. Regardless, this team has played in plenty of big spots the last few years under Brohm's watch. If I had to pick a team to meet Clemson in Charlotte, I am leaning towards picking them. I just worry about that bad defense.
I have Louisville just ahead of Georgia Tech because the Cardinals have that extra gear on offense.
6. BYU Cougars
One of the teams I was most wrong about last year was the BYU Cougars. I thought they were going to win around four games with their tough schedule. Instead, they won 10 and were in the mix to get to Arlington until the bitter end. That was the last time I will ever doubt a Kalani Sitake-led Cougars football team again. In a way, I feel that they have the right mental makeup to do work in the Big 12.
While I question if BYU has the upward trajectory of teams like Arizona State or Iowa State, I feel they could be steadier than other fringe contenders such as Baylor, Kansas State and Texas Tech in this league. For BYU to make the playoff, the Cougars will probably need to win the Big 12 to overcome any inherent bias held against them. This year is contingent on Jake Retzlaff taking another big step.
If not for falling apart at the seams down the stretch, BYU was on the verge of making it last season.
5. Miami Hurricanes
This is all about the health of Georgia transfer quarterback Carson Beck. If he is healthy and can play up to his standard, Miami cannot only make the College Football Playoff, they can win the ACC and push for a top-four seed. While I do not trust Mario Cristobal any further than he can throw a clipboard, his team does recruit well. More importantly, Shannon Dawson is a great offensive mind.
To me, no team hovering in and around the top 25 heading into spring practice offers more variance than the Miami Hurricanes. At best, they can be a top-10 on par with what they were at times a year ago. At worst, this team could win seven or eight games and finish nowhere close to making the playoff. Again, it all comes down to Beck's health. He played great for Georgia, so I am rooting for him.
I may think Louisville is a bit steadier than them, but only Miami can match the talent of Clemson.
4. Florida Gators
Just win and you are in. The Florida Gators may have the hardest schedule in the country, but if they win something around nine games, it will be hard to keep them out. That is just par for the course playing in a league like the SEC. Billy Napier was dead to rights at varying points of last season ...until he no longer was. He got his team to rally and play tremendous football down the stretch for him.
With much of the Gators' success riding on sophomore quarterback D.J. Lagway, it remains to be seen how far he can conceivably take this team. It has been a painful last decade and change for Florida. Seeing rival Georgia have more success than then in recent years has to be tearing them apart. What if I told you there is a strong possibility Florida potentially upsets my Dawgs this fall?
Florida may have the talent to get to eight wins, but with a bit of luck, they can get to nine and get in!
3. Iowa State Cyclones
Even though I am dating someone who graduated from Arizona State, Iowa State is my pick to win the Big 12 next year. This feels like the year Matt Campbell finally puts it all together and has the Cyclones in the playoff. Iowa State was a game away from making it last year before getting curb-stomped by Arizona State in the Big 12 title bout. They would have made it in a 12-team field in 2020.
Rocco Becht certainly looks the part under center for the Cyclones. While they have a tough first game vs. Farmageddon rival Kansas State across the pond in Dublin, Iowa State might have the schedule to get them in with 10 or more wins. I have the Big 12 getting two teams in next season in Iowa State as a Power Four champion and Arizona State as one of the last at-large teams to get in.
It will all come down to how much offensive firepower Iowa State can have around Becht this season.
2. Illinois Fighting Illini
The longer the offseason goes on, the more and more I like Illinois' chances of making the playoff for the first time. While the Illini do not recruit at an elite level, Bret Bielema is one helluva head coach. I sometimes wonder if Wisconsin would rather have him over Luke Fickell trying to run an Air Raid system in frigid Madison. Give me a break... That being said, Illinois could be wearing a satin kimono.
My thought is the Big Ten may not get four teams into the playoff again next year. To be totally honest, the league has a soft tummy beyond Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State. Michigan could be much improved. Indiana may have staying power. We will see what happens at places like Nebraska. To me, Illinois is on par with how I felt about Ole Miss entering last season. If not now, when? Make it happen!
As long as Luke Altmyer plays well, Illinois will be in and around the last teams in or the first teams out.
1. South Carolina Gamecocks
It does not matter how tough of a schedule South Carolina may play. I know what I saw a year ago. Beating Clemson in Palmetto was the cherry on top of a season few outside of Columbia ever expected. LaNorris Sellers could be the next Cam Newton, for all we know, under center. Shane Beamer knows he has a good team, as Cocky as he ever is. The problem is he plays in the SEC.
South Carolina is like Florida in that their brutal schedule will be a boost to getting in if they win. If the Gamecocks win 10 games, they will be a lock to make the 12-team field. Beating Clemson again would be wonderful, but far from a guarantee. South Carolina has to play a little tighter in big games vs. Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss. If they win one or two of those games, I like their chances of making it.
Right now, I have South Carolina in as the fourth SEC team in at somewhere around the No. 10 seed.