It is not about being right, but getting it right. We have six more months before toe meets leather in college football. Week 0 cannot get here soon enough. For now, we must find new and creative ways to entertain ourselves. One of which is trying to figure out who the best teams in the sport will be next year. Every single offseason, we make the same mistakes when it comes to ranking the top 25 teams.
While I reserve my right to change these rankings up until the start of the season, I feel like we need a new starting point. For the last few weeks, I have been trying to build out a top eight, a top 10, a top 12 and a top 16. It has been a slow process, but in the hopes of speeding this up a bit, I have decided, why not kick it out to a top 25? Plus, we need something to talk about on False Start this Thursday...
In my first attempt at putting together at top 25 this offseason, I have come to realize that you and I can have entirely different opinions on any set of college football rankings. There are teams I am way too high on, as well as ones I am completely sleeping on. It is not about finding this year's Arizona State, but rather not falling into the boobytrap that was Florida State and Michigan from a year ago.
Without further ado, here is my way-too-early college football rankings heading into spring practice.
25. Boise State Broncos
Not to say that I have to have a Group of Five team inside the top 25, but there is always one, usually a few. While I may be leaning towards the Miami RedHawks winning the MAC and the Group of Five this season, I trust the infrastructure in place at Boise State. The Broncos may have lost Ashton Jeanty to the NFL Draft, but Spencer Danielson knows what he is doing. Plus, Maddux Madsen is leveling up!
24. Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss blew it. Last year was the one the Rebels should have made the College Football Playoff. Instead, Lane Kiffin's team went 9-3 with losses to Florida, Kentucky and LSU. That being said, Austin Simmons intrigues me under center. I think he could really turn some heads in Kiffin's offense next year. Regardless, Ole Miss only feels like an 8-4 SEC team with maybe a 10-2 ceiling for this season.
23. Texas A&M Aggies
I love Mike Elko as a head coach and I tend to like what Marcel Reed is about under center than most. However, the Texas A&M of it all is why I rarely push all my chips into the center of the table when it comes to the Aggies. Should Reed improve in Collin Klein's offense, I would not be shocked if Texas A&M pushes for the playoff. Moving on from Conner Weigman was a good thing, but was it enough?
22. Indiana Hoosiers
This feels quite low for the Indiana Hoosiers coming off arguably their best season ever. Curt Cignetti should be able to sustain some level of excellence in Bloomington going forward. Replacing Kurtis Rourke with Fernando Mendoza intrigues. My biggest concern with IU is that the threat of surprise is gone. The Big Ten should get around four teams into the playoff next year, but Indiana might finish in sixth...
21. Miami Hurricanes
I go back and forth on the Miami Hurricanes every day in my head. If Carson Beck is healthy, I would have no problem having the Canes five, seven, maybe even 10 spots higher. I know what he is capable of under center, but I do not trust Mario Cristobal to ever get his team over the top. All Miami had to do was beat Syracuse to make the playoff. The Hurricanes could not even do that one thing...
20. Florida Gators
It is good to see Florida back inside the top 25. Billy Napier and the Gators as a whole will be better for navigating one of the toughest schedules in the country last year. Although I love the upside they have with DJ Lagway under center, the schedule will be just as relenting as it was a year ago. All the SEC home games are road games and vice versa. Florida has an outside shot at making the playoff.
19. Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State frustrates me. Chris Klieman is the most underrated coach in the country, but at some point, Avery Johnson has to play better at quarterback. This is the guy K-State pivoted off Will Howard for. I understand that he is a mega talent, but Howard left Ohio State a national champion. Kansas State is one of four teams I can see winning the Big 12 and making the playoff, but that is it.
18. SMU Mustangs
The combination of Kevin Jennings, Rhett Lashlee and SMU really wanting this makes me reticent to dock the Mustangs too much. While they did navigate a soft ACC schedule, the Ponies earned their right to be Penn State's horse meat in the playoff. I will always root for teams that want to level up when it comes to conference realignment. SMU might pull back, but this is a program here to stay.
17. BYU Cougars
I am not going to fade BYU this year. Kalani Sitake is too good of a head coach. Plus, this program has one of the strongest identities in the country. While the Cougars did run out of gas a year ago down the stretch in Big 12 play, I have this strange feeling they are going to take advantage of the power void at the top of the conference better than most. We could be looking at BYU making the playoff.
16. Michigan Wolverines
Against my better judgment, I am going to be bullish on Michigan heading into this season. I got burned last year with USC and two years ago by the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL. I feel like I owe it to myself to be high on a team I have concerns about and do not regularly root for once a season. This is the year where Sherrone Moore earns his title. If he cannot, then Michigan needs to pivot off him fast!
15. Louisville Cardinals
With Miami and SMU expected to pull back, I am getting dangerously high on Louisville for this season. Jeff Brohm is a rockstar head coach, one who is about to be thriving at his alma mater. U of L cannot play a lick of defense, but Miller Moss could be a step up for them at quarterback. We are looking at a team who could win the ACC next year at 11-1, or a team that goes 7-5 and disappoints...
14. Illinois Fighting Illini
We all know who the three best programs in the Big Ten are right now, but somebody has to take the playoff spot that was occupied by Indiana a year ago. The Hoosiers could reclaim it. Michigan will be in the running for it. For now, I am hopping on the bandwagon in Champaign-Urbana. Bret Bielema's Illinois Fighting Illini may be something fierce. Luke Altmyer is the quarterback no one is talking about.
13. Alabama Crimson Tide
It feels wrong having Alabama ranked this low to start, but the Crimson Tide have earned it. Losing Jalen Milroe hurts this offense as much as adding Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator improves it. Alabama still has an incredibly high ceiling, but the floor has been lowered under Kalen DeBoer. This is a 9-3 to 10-2 team that can be an 8-4 to 7-5 team if the quarterback play does not buoy the Tide.
12. Arizona State Sun Devils
I was wrong about Kenny Dillingham. Most of us were... The Arizona State alum has awoken the sleeping giant we were once foretold about lying in the desert of The Valley of the Sun. Cam Skattebo may be off to the NFL, but Sam Leavitt and much of last year's team returns. I do not know if Arizona State will repeat at Big 12 champions, but I love the Sun Devils' chances of making the playoff again.
11. Iowa State Cyclones
Right now, most people seem to be leaning one way or another when it comes to who could win the Big 12. Iowa State is my early pick to do that by beating Arizona State in the rematch in Arlington next December. Matt Campbell has built up an incredible program, but needs to cash in on his dividends before he leaves. With the help of Rocco Becht and company, he might finally do that this season.
10. South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina is a sexy pick to have in the College Football Playoff field. If the SEC gets four teams in, I feel confident the Gamecocks will be among them. If it is only three again, they will be right there. For as much as I believe in LaNorris Sellers' talent, we have not seen the South Carolina program be as steady as it should be. It is a reflection of their head coach Shane Beamer, who is a bit abrasive.
9. LSU Tigers
While I like South Carolina's chances of making the playoff a bit more than LSU's, the Bayou Bengals have arguably the best quarterback in the country in Garrett Nussmeier. He could be the next Matthew Stafford of the SEC. My concern with LSU is I do not trust their defense at all. Brian Kelly needs to win to take himself off the hot seat. This team can win the SEC, or it can win seven games...
8. Tennessee Volunteers
I may be drinking too much of the orange kool-aid. Tennessee is the first of eight teams I have as essentially locks to make the playoff. The schedule should be fairly navigable for the Vols. Tennessee gets Georgia at home this year, early. While I have my reservations about Josh Heupel leveling up as a coach, I would be stunned if Nico Iamaleava is not better in year two as the Vols' starting quarterback.
7. Oregon Ducks
Last year was the season for Oregon to win the College Football Playoff, and the Ducks did not do it! While they somehow were able to retain Will Stein as their offensive coordinator for one more season, Dan Lanning needs to make his team tougher and play with a little more heart on defense. Oregon is comfortably a playoff team, but I will never crown them again until I see a major tonal shift from within.
6. Clemson Tigers
Are you watching closely? Clemson is about to be a serious threat to win the College Football Playoff next season. Outside of Barrett Carter, the Tigers are returning quite a lot from last year's team. It will be another year of Cade Klubnik in Garrett Riley's system. Adding Tom Allen and Mike Houston to the defensive staff is a huge plus. This is the year Dabo Swinney reminds us all of who he is as a coach.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
No, I am not picking my beloved Georgia Bulldogs to win the College Football Playoff this season. There are concerns on offense with the quarterback change, as well as the coaching staff needing to level up. I still have the Dawgs firmly in as a playoff team, but they are not going undefeated and may only get in as a 10-2 at-large team next season. This team has to be healthy to have a bit more fight.
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame coming in at No. 4 feels about right. While last season's national runner-up is losing some key pieces off last year's team, how can you not like the program Marcus Freeman is building? The schedule should not be overly challenging again. As long as Steve Angeli can hold his own under center, I expect for Jeremiyah Love and the boys to be back in the College Football Playoff again.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions
I wanted to put Penn State in the No. 1 spot so badly, but the Nittany Lions still need to prove two things to me. They first must show us they can beat top-five teams with any regularity at all. They also have to be able to win games when they are even the slightest of underdogs. James Franklin has an incredible staff and a roster dripping with so much talent. No excuses, just win the whole thing, guys!
2. Texas Longhorns
This is more about Steve Sarkisian than it is Arch Manning. Texas might end up winning its first national title in two decades because of its rockstar head coach, and not its promising third-year quarterback. If Texas is going to be on top, it will be because of Sarkisian's prowess and growth as a leader. Manning will eventually find his, but this will be a year of great learning for him as the starter.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Until somebody beats them, I have no problem with Ohio State being ranked No. 1 to start next season. Ryan Day lost so much from last year's team, but few programs recruit at the level Ohio State does. They do have to replace both coordinators, their starting quarterback and so much all across the gridiron, but this is the best program in the country right now. Ohio State deserves to be at No. 1.