College football rankings: 5 top national title contenders with Alabama, Ole Miss out

It was bound to happen. Chaos completely took over the college football world in Week 13. Teams like Alabama, BYU, Colorado, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all lost to teams they were ranked above. Boise State, Iowa State and Penn State nearly made it eight. Even though Indiana lost to Ohio State, the Hoosiers are still in a great spot to make the College Football Playoff. So who can actually win it now?

Entering last week, I had Alabama and Ole Miss labeled as teams I think could win a national championship. My thought was if they got on a run, their best could outperform someone's best, as illustrated by their wins over Georgia, Alabama's beatdown of LSU and Ole Miss' evisceration of South Carolina. However, I think we are more likely than not to see both of these teams miss the playoff now.

With the dust starting to settle after "cupcake week" as we get ready for rivalry week, I want to go out on a limb by saying that while I think the following five teams are the best equipped to potentially win the College Football Playoff, I am not entirely certain that any of them do so. We have one more week of the season, conference championships, and several rounds of the playoff to crown a champion.

Let's start with the one good, but frustrating team that never seems to go away, but could win it all.

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

I don't know if Notre Dame is as good as what their 10-1 record indicates, but they are talented and have been one of the most steady teams in all of college football. They have a few key wins, including ones over Army, Louisville and Texas A&M. Even though I am dubious about them having an incredibly low playoff floor, the Fighting Irish are in with a win over USC. They should be a top-six or seven seed.

This is a team that will not have to play on championship weekend, as the Irish still refuse to join the modern times of college football and join a conference. One year, it will be to their playoff detriment. For now, it works in their favor. To put a positive spin on this, I had Notre Dame as a playoff lock for most of the offseason and nearly all of this season. The Northern Illinois loss was bad, but it happens.

What I am getting at is Notre Dame has been able to avoid the chaos most teams have succumbed to in the latter part of the season. I think getting a truly terrible loss out of the way was the best thing to happen for them. We are no longer talking about Riley Leonard's play or Marcus Freeman's coaching chops. We are talking about how far can the Irish go in the postseason. I think they will surprise some.

Notre Dame will need to catch a few breaks, but they have the roster to run the gauntlet, I suppose...

4. Oregon Ducks

I might be wrong in this, but I am not as high on the Oregon Ducks winning their first national title to date this year. They are 11-0 and avoid cupcake week by being on a bye ahead of the Washington game. They will face either Ohio State, Penn State or Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. All three of those teams have lost in conference play. Ohio State is in the driver's seat to meet them over in Indy.

No doubt about it, Oregon is well-coached and has the roster to hang with and beat anyone. My biggest reservation is that they have not tasted defeat yet, leading to them potentially playing tight in a critical spot. My other one of concern is if the Ducks truly have the depth to navigate the gauntlet that will be in front of them. I know they are destined for the No. 1 seed, but what if they do not get it?

If Oregon were to lose in Indianapolis, they would be 12-1 and likely be the No. 5 seed. From there, they would host the No. 12, face the No. 4 in the national quarterfinals, presumably Ohio State for the third time this season in the national semifinals and then Either the No. 2 seed or some other Big Ten or SEC team in the national championship. I do like the Ducks' steadiness, but I question their ceiling.

It would not shock me to see Oregon with the whole thing, but they are not yet my favorite to do so.

3. Texas Longhorns

We have arrived at Texas. The Longhorns are 10-1 heading into The Lone Star Showdown with little brother rival Texas A&M. While the Longhorns had no issues with Kentucky during Week 13, the Aggies got all they could handle from Auburn, and then some, in their crushing overtime defeat. Texas still does not have a signature win. Their only loss on the season was a beatdown at home to Georgia.

I would say that with a win over Texas A&M, Texas is a lock to make the College Football Playoff, no matter what happens in Atlanta to Georgia. Not to say that the Longhorns are as battle-tested as other teams potentially already in the playoff field, but having the head-to-head loss to Georgia is an intrinsic motivator that I think undefeated teams simply cannot manufacture. It has to be authentic.

Texas has a fantastic defense, is well-coached and does enough offensively to entice me. I do not have the same amount of depth concerns as I do about Oregon, but they are there to some extent. However, at the end of the day, I think Texas is deep enough at most position groups to be able to win games in most ways, especially if the script is flipped and the contest is not going in its favor just yet.

It is all lining up for Texas to win its first national title since 2005, so it is time to take care of business.

2. Georgia Bulldogs

When it comes to Georgia, I do not think anyone can say this team has lived up to its lofty expectations this season. The Dawgs are 9-2 with a ticket punched to the SEC Championship Game after seeing Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M lose for a third time this year. When Georgia plays up to Georgia standard, you get great wins like the Dawgs have over Clemson, Tennessee and Texas.

However, when it comes to overall steadiness, I feel that the Dawgs are not the team with the highest variance between good, bad and ugly play that can still win a national title. This is because they simply have better players than most teams have to offer. Unless they are going up against a team with comparable talent levels, it will require an A-game to beat Georgia, assuming they play down...

Overall, I think we have seen enough out of Georgia over the last four years to be wary of what happens when you try and cross them off. The Dawgs have not lost a home game since 2019 and have not lost to a non-SEC team in nearly a decade. What I am getting at is this team is talented, battle-tested and has come out the otherside of the SEC gauntlet far better for having done so.

I don't know if the Dawgs will have the easiest pathway to a championship, but it can see it happening.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

My current pick to win the whole thing would have to be Ohio State. I could end up with rotten egg on my face if Ryan Day decides to attend the big doofus convention when the Buckeyes play Michigan next week. If Ohio State beats the Wolverines for the first time since COVID, I like their chances the best to win a national championship. The Buckeyes check most of the boxes I would need to see.

They are steady, well-coached, deep and have been battle-tested. While I think injury attrition and late-game decisions will be reasons why they do not end up winning a national title should they fall short, Ohio State has the clearest path to the No. 1 seed: Beat Michigan and then beat Oregon. Ohio State is 2-1 in its biggest Big Ten games with wins over Indiana and Penn State, but an Oregon loss.

In a way, Ohio State and Georgia are somewhat mirror images of each other. I would not be shocked if that ends up being the national championship game we get in Atlanta in a month or so. Again, there is not much in my opinion separating Georgia from Ohio State. It all comes down to having a slightly easier path into the playoff. For the time being, Ohio State is more of a playoff lock than Georgia is.

It would be a disappointment for Ohio State to not be playing in a national semifinal this postseason.