College Football Playoff rankings: Filling out the CFP bracket using only FPI

Numbers can be your friend, but they are mostly your enemy. You can rattle off any number of statistics out there to prove your point, but what if you point actually stinks? While I have become a fan of ESPN's Football Power Index to help me visualize who is still mathematically in the mix to maybe make the College Football Playoff, we should be thankful that FPI does not do the rankings.

While I cannot claim to fully understand what goes into the FPI formula, I know it tries its best to measure a team based on its overall strength. It can show you what teams may be overrated a bit, as well as grossly underrated. It can also show you what atrocious coaching looks like. Look no further than 5-5 USC being slotted comfortably inside of the top 25 rankings when it comes to only FPI.

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, these would be the 25 best teams in the nation right now.

1. Texas Longhorns (9-1) (26.7)
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) (26.6)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) (25.3)
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) (23.3)
5. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) (23.0)
6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) (22.4)
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (20.7)
8. Oregon Ducks (11-0) (20.6)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) (19.3)
10. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) (17.9)
11. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) (17.7)
12. Clemson Tigers (8-2) (15.3)
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3) (14.5)
14. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) (14.3)
15. SMU Mustangs (9-1) (13.9)
16. USC Trojans (5-5) (13.5)
17. Louisville Cardinals (6-4) (13.4)
18. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) (13.3)
19. LSU Tigers (6-4) (13.1)
20. Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) (12.7)
21. Boise State Broncos (9-1) (12.0)
22. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) (11.5)
23. Iowa State Cyclones (8-2) (11.3)
24. Missouri Tigers (7-3) (11.0)
25. Kansas State Wildcats (7-3) (10.7)

If we used ESPN's FPI rankings to establish a 12-team playoff field, here is who would be getting in.

1. Texas Longhorns (9-1) (26.7) (Projected SEC champion)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) (25.3) (Projected Big Ten champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) (17.9) (Projected ACC champion)
4. Tulane Green Wave (9-2) (13.3) (Projected AAC/Group of Five champion)
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) (26.6) (Projected SEC runner-up)
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) (23.3) (Projected national independent at-large)
7. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) (23.0) (Projected SEC at-large)
8. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) (22.4) (Projected SEC at-large)
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1) (20.7) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
10. Oregon Ducks (11-0) (20.6) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
11. Tennessee Volunteers (8-2) (19.3) (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) (12.7) (Projected Big 12 champion)

And for a bit more context, these would be the first four teams out based strictly on FPI rankings.

• 13. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) (17.7) (Big Ten)
• 14. Clemson Tigers (8-2) (15.3) (ACC runner-up)
• 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3) (14.5) (SEC)
• 16. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) (14.3) (SEC)

Now that you have some more very important information, let me try to unpack this a little bit more.

College Football Playoff rankings: Based strictly on FPI ahead of Week 13

While going of strictly FPI does end up getting more teams into the field we would expect than not, it helps the SEC, hurts the Big Ten and ruins the Big 12 completely. FPI would knock presumptive No. 1 Oregon down to No. 10 as the third and final Big Ten team into the playoff. It just goes to show that maybe Ohio State and Penn State have better players. It also has Indiana as the first team out, too.

Essentially, Tennessee would be taking Indiana's spot in this exercise, since we usually end up with four Big Ten and four SEC teams getting into the playoff field. As you can see, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State make the field out of the Big ten with Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas in out of the SEC. Tulane in as the Group of Five winner is odd, but not as odd as being the No. 4 seed.

The real mind-blower in all this is the highest-ranked Big 12 team in terms of FPI would be Colorado at No. 20. While most people have no issues with the Buffaloes making the playoff, it just goes to show that they might be more of a bid thief or a seed stealer than you would ever realize. The fact that BYU is not even the third highest ranked Big 12 team in terms of FPI suggests they might be even more!

Admittedly, this is a very interesting exercise. What it does more than anything is it gives a glimpse into what playoff contenders can win a national and which ones cannot. Entering this week, I originally thought only six teams could win it all in Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oregon and Texas. I may need to consider Notre Dame and Penn State a bit more. I might be a bit too bullish on Oregon...

For now, I would say that there are about seven teams I think could seriously win the national title.