College football rankings: What CFP teams have the best shot to make it back in 2025?

With the college football season put on ice until very late August, we only have last year's results and underlying vibes and expectations heading into next year. I have a feeling that not every team who made the College Football Playoff this past season will make it back in 2025. I wrote about this earlier in the day on Wednesday that I like nine teams to make it back, with five being locks for it.

This is the nature of the beast. The very best of the best in major college football are not going to collectively fall off a cliff together in the same year. Yes, you may have a Michigan team that goes through a period of transition after a national title. There are also teams like Florida State who seemingly bottom out out of nowhere. However, the top of the sport is pretty much the same group.

For those who need a refresher, here is what the 12-team playoff field looked like this past season.

1. Oregon Ducks (Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC champion)
3. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
4. Arizona State Sun Devils (Big 12 champion)
5. Texas Longhorns (SEC runner-up)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten runner-up)
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (National independent at-large)
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten at-large)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (SEC at-large)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten at-large)
11. SMU Mustangs (ACC runner-up)
12. Clemson Tigers (ACC champion)

Entering this past season, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas were essentially locks to make the playoff coming into it. Notre Dame and Penn State were in that next group of almost locks. While it was not that hard to forecast teams like Boise State, Clemson or Tennessee getting in, nobody saw Arizona State, Indiana or SMU making the field, let alone all three getting top-11 seeds in the playoff.

Without further ado, I will power rank all 12 playoff teams on their overall likelihood of getting back.

12. Boise State Broncos

Although the Boise State Broncos were a top-10 team heading into the final College Football Playoff rankings anyway, the chances of them returning again next year seem quite slim to me. They are losing Ashton Jeanty to the NFL and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is stepping aside. While I do like Maddux Madsen's growth at quarterback, this team is only getting in winning the Group of Five.

While the Group of Five champion could come out of the Mountain West again, outside of Colorado State, how many teams in that league do we know will be good? The AAC is in a state of flux, as is CUSA to some extent. It might be the year the Sun Belt finally gets its team to a New Year's Six bowl. My way-too-early pick to win the Group of Five next season will win the MAC in the Miami RedHawks.

Boise State has the structural integrity to make it in again anyway, but they can only get in one way.

11. SMU Mustangs

I may have been bullish on SMU entering last season by accurately projecting the Mustangs getting to the ACC Championship and losing it. For as much as I like the growing rapport head coach Rhett Lashlee has with his starting quarterback Kevin Jennings, SMU is not going to sneak up on anyone next year. More importantly, they got the benefit of the doubt from playing a rather soft schedule.

Right now, I like Clemson's chances of repeating as the ACC champion far more than I do the Mustang's chances of getting back to Charlotte. Oh, the Ponies will be among one of the five or six best teams in the ACC again next year, but keep your eyes peeled for teams on the rise like Georgia Tech and Louisville, as well as Miami not going away just yet either. What if Florida State improves?

SMU always felt like a playoff one-off, but the Mustangs proved so many people wrong last season.

10. Indiana Hoosiers

I go back and forth when it comes to Indiana possibly returning to the playoff next season. Was last year the anomaly or is this the new normal under Curt Cignetti? While replacing Kurtis Rourke with former Cal starter Fernando Mendoza was brilliant, losing Tino Sunseri to the UCLA Bruins coaching staff is a huge blow. Most importantly, Indiana no longer carries the threat of surprise like SMU did.

As is the case with SMU, Indiana navigated a fairly soft schedule to an 11-1 regular-season record. When it came to facing real competition in the playoff, they came up dead almost immediately. The biggest reason why I still think Indiana has a shot to get in is I do not trust any team behind them in the Big Ten standings from last year overtaking them. Michigan could eventually, but not right now.

Indiana feels destined to be a last two team in or one of the first four teams out next college season.

9. Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State is in that same cluster of 2024 playoff teams with the likes of Indiana where I think they could make it back, but I am not certain about it. The Sun Devils are playing with so much confidence under Arizona State alum Kenny Dillingham. Getting pretty much everyone of note not named Cam Skattebo back next season is a huge plus. Sam Leavitt could be a serious Heisman Trophy contender.

As is the case with Boise State and SMU, Arizona State may fall victim to not having enough spots to make the tournament. The Group of Five gets one, while the ACC, Big 12 and Notre Dame should get in between two and four teams most years. Last season saw those three groups get the perceived maximum of four teams in. The fact that Iowa State looms large in the BIg 12 could hurt Arizona State.

I have Arizona State as the last at-large team to make it in my way-too-early playoff field projection.

8. Clemson Tigers

I am really high on Clemson next year. The Tigers made the College Football Playoff last year anyway by beating SMU in Charlotte, despite being a three-loss team. Replacing Wes Goodwin with Tom Allen as their defensive coordinator is massive for Dabo Swinney's team. I also am of the belief that Cade Klubnik might be good enough to win the Heisman Trophy. There is a chance he could be the favorite.

But because Clemson plays in the ACC, the Tigers are not going to get the same breaks as a similarly ranked team would in the Big Ten and the SEC. If the Tigers win 11 games, they are probably getting in as an at-large team at the very worst. While I do love their chances of repeating as ACC champions, the top half of that league is quite compelling. On the right night, someone can get the best of them.

For now, I have a hard time seeing Clemson missing the playoff. They are not quite a lock, but close.

7. Tennessee Volunteers

I grouped four teams together in the bucket of they made the playoff last year, but their status remains up in the air for me. While I do have the Tennessee Volunteers back in the tournament next spring, I am skeptical about their ability to level up under head coach Josh Heupel, particularly what I have seen out of Nico Iamaleava at quarterback. It would help if he had better receivers to throw to.

Retaining Tim Banks as the defensive coordinator is key in the Volunteers' chances of getting back to the playoff. They do not have the toughest schedule next season. Getting Georgia at home is a huge help for them. However, I struggle to see their best regularly being better than the best Georgia and Texas could put forth. Tennessee is kind of like the SEC equivalent of Penn State for the time being.

I was bullish on them making the playoff from the start last year, but I am tepid on them improving.

6. Oregon Ducks

I would be a fool to not have the Oregon Ducks as a playoff team next year, but how this past season ended for them was a complete referendum on Dan Lanning's program. They may have caught Ohio State on a bad day, but I just have a feeling the Ducks' second season in the Big Ten will not be as breezy as the first. They recruit very well and have excellent coaches, but last year was the year, man...

In a way, how I feel about Oregon heading into next season is how I felt about Penn State entering last season. There is simply too much good equity built into this program to be anything less than a top-three team in the reconfigured Big Ten. For the foreseeable future, the Big Ten and SEC will get at least three of their teams into the playoff annually. This is good for the Ducks heading into 2025.

Anything short of a return trip to the playoff should be seen as a gross failure for Lanning's Ducks.

5. Georgia Bulldogs

For the first time in a few years, I am not picking Georgia to win the national championship. It has been two years since the team I root for went back-to-back. Each season has been progressively worse than the year before. While the 2023 team could have won the playoff had it qualified for it, this became very apparent that last year's team was flawed from the start. Will the 2025 team be better?

I am not so sure of it. While the Dawgs do get a slightly easier schedule with Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas coming to Athens, they still have to play on the road at Tennessee. As is the case with how I felt about Penn State and how I feel about Oregon, the Georgia program under Kirby Smart is still too strong to be anything worse than a top three or four team in the SEC. In most years, that gets you in.

Either Gunner Stockton is a revelation under center, or this team will have to win with defense again.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

What Notre Dame did in the College Football Playoff this past postseason leads me to believe that they will be back. Yes, they may lose players and coaches to the NFL or other opportunities, but for as long as this team has Marcus Freeman as its head coach and plays a national independent schedule, the Fighting Irish will be getting in with 11 wins annually. In some years, they could get in with just 10.

Notre Dame may be in that same playoff bid cluster of roughly two-to-four with the ACC and Big 12, but the Fighting Irish are the exception. For a while, we used to make exceptions for a previously unexceptional program, but the Irish have consistently been a top-six program throughout the playoff era. For that reason, I feel they are even more of a lock to make the field next year than even Georgia.

The only way Notre Dame does not make it is if they have a weak resume with a 10-2 or worse record.

3. Texas Longhorns

While I am not quite ready to crown the Texas Longhorns as future SEC champions, I cannot see any way where they are not making the playoff for a third year in a row. The Longhorns do have to play at Georgia next year, but they did not have the hardest schedule first schedule in the SEC last year. You have to remember that it flips from home to road next season before the league figures out its plan.

Arch Manning could be the best thing to happen to Texas since Vince Young or he could just be a lesser version of Sam Ehlinger. I tend to think he has that VY blue in him. However, we did grossly underrate how good of a college passer Quinn Ewers was at his peak. He may not be the NFL Draft prospect we all thought he was coming out, but he left Texas better than he found it. Texas is a lock!

The only way Texas fails to make the playoff is is Manning stinks and monkey business ruins them.

2. Penn State Nittany Lions

I am more sure of it now than I was entering the playoff, let alone how I felt about them last offseason. If Penn State fails to make the College Football Playoff next season, something went horribly wrong, and James Franklin has to go. While he still has no idea how to beat top-five teams or keep pace with opponents as the underdog, the structural integrity of this program means they will win 10 games.

Penn State may have lost Abdul Carter and Tyler Warren to the NFL Draft, as well as defensive coordinator Tom Allen to the Clemson post. However, Andy Kotelnicki returns as the offensive play-caller with Drew Allar, Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton giving us the best backfield in the country. It has as good of a chance to be as good as what Ohio State offered only a season ago.

If only four teams can win a national championship next year, I would have Penn State among them.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Of course, the reigning national champions are going to make the College Football Playoff next year. Ohio State is back on top of the college football world, slated to pull off an impressive repeat. While everyone will be gunning for them next season, Ohio State has given us all the perfect blueprint for how to win a national championship by running the gauntlet by having an absolutely loaded roster!

Ohio State may be my early pick to win the Big Ten. They may not repeat as national champions, but it would be a complete and utter shock if the Buckeyes were not one of the 12 teams taking part in the playoff again next season. If any team is going to win a playoff game next year, my money would be on Ohio State to do that. Again, this is a way-too-early projection, but I know what the team is capable of.

If only one team from last year's field was going to make the playoff, it would have to be Ohio State.