There are eight teams in college football that are virtually locks to make the College Football Playoff this year. The Oregon Ducks are the surest thing, as the No. 1 ranked team in the nation is the only one without a blemish so far this season. They punched their ticket into the playoff by beating Washington in their big end-of-season rivalry game. Oregon now faces Penn State in Indianapolis.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Oregon is one of eight teams with a 99-percent chance or better of getting in. Oregon is a lock at 100 percent. They are joined by Georgia, Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee and Texas as essentially playoff guarantees at this point. Oregon will be the No. 1 seed in the first 12-team College Football Playoff as long as they defeat Penn State.
Here are the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings heading into conference championships.
- Oregon Ducks (12-0)
- Texas Longhorns (11-1)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
- SMU Mustangs (11-1)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
- Boise State Broncos (11-1)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
- Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
- Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
- South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
- Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
- Clemson Tigers (9-3)
- BYU Cougars (10-2)
- Missouri Tigers (9-3)
- UNLV Rebels (10-2)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
- Syracuse Orange (9-3)
- Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
- Army Black Knights (10-1)
- Memphis Tigers (10-2)
Based on those rankings and seeding procedures, this would be the 12-team playoff field right now.
- Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
- Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
- SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
- Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)
And for further context, these would be the first four teams out of the College Football Playoff.
- 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
- 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
- 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
- 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)
So with that in mind, how far would Oregon conceivably fall if they were to lose to Penn State in Indy?
How far would Oregon drop if Ducks lost Big Ten title to Penn State?
It is pretty clear. Oregon would probably only fall to the No. 5 seed if they were to lose to Penn State. The Ducks' one loss would be better than Notre Dame's one loss to Northern Illinois. Oregon has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Ohio State and has the better playoff resume over one-loss Indiana. The only wrinkle to keep an eye out for is if Georgia were to beat Texas twice this year to win the SEC.
Assuming chalk everywhere outside of Penn State upsetting Oregon, this may be the playoff field.
- Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC champion)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (12-1) (Big Ten champion)
- SMU Mustangs (12-1) (ACC champion)
- Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
- Oregon Ducks (12-1) (Big Ten runner-up)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC at-large)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)
Oregon would be slotted in at No. 5 hosting their former Pac-12 compadre in the projected Big 12 champion Arizona State Sun Devils. The Ducks would be a shoo-in over Notre Dame for the right to play the No. 12 seed. The Irish would get a brutal first-round matchup, as they would host No. 11-seeded Alabama. No. 7-10 would be seeded as such to avoid immediate regular-season rematches
Besides having to play a first-round game in this instance, Oregon's path to a national title is clear.