College football rankings: Power ranking the 8 remaining CFP teams after first round
By John Buhler
And then there were eight... While the first-round home playoff games were a hit optically, none of those games were even remotely close. Chalk prevailed in the first-round of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff with No. 5 Texas, No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 Ohio State all advancing to the national quarterfinals. There is a chance for all four could advance to the semifinals.
Heading into the new year, we will have four neutral-site affairs taking place in the national quarterfinals. No. 3 Boise State will face No. 6 Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve. On New Year's Day, No. 4 Arizona State will play No. 5 Texas in the Peach Bowl, No. 1 Oregon will take on No. 8 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and No. 2 Georgia will meet No. 7 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.
From there, we will have four teams left to play in the Cotton and Orange Bowls with a national championship game in Atlanta coming up in the latter part of January. Now that No. 12 Clemson, No. 11 SMU, No. 10 Indiana and No. 9 Tennessee are out of the College Football Playoff picture, I will do my best to power rank the remaining eight teams still vying or a chance at a national championship.
Let's start with the ultimate dark horse in the only team remaining whose mascot is actually a horse.
8. No. 3 Boise State Broncos
Look. I don't want to be mean, but I kind of have to. There are seven teams left in the College Football Playoff that compete at the Power Four level, and Boise State is not one of them... While the Broncos have arguably the best player remaining in the playoff in Doak Walker winner and Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty, depth will be what prevails in the end in the playoff. Boise State lacks this.
While there is a chance Penn State overlooks the Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl, I am taking James Franklin's dudes over Spencer Danielson's every day and twice on New Year's Eve. It is going to have to take a perfect game for Boise State to get past a red-hot Penn State team. If Maddux Madsen emulates Jared Zabransky on the goal line with a Statue of Liberty trip to pay dirt, we will all eat crow.
Boise State may have it in them to upset Penn State, but they are not winning three playoff games.
7. No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils
I go back and forth on how serious of a national championship threat Arizona State really is. They might be playing the best football of any team left in the playoff right now. Kenny Dillingham has his alma mater playing so fired up as the Big 12 champions. Arizona State is well-rested, which will give the Sun Devils a puncher's chance to knock off Texas in the Peach Bowl, but will it even be enough?
Arizona State has plenty of pieces offensively to keep pace with Texas in the form of running back Cam Skattebo and quarterback Sam Leavitt. However, I wonder if the offensive line will hold up against Texas' vaunted pass rush. Simply put, Arizona State has the upward trajectory to potentially upset Texas, maybe even win the Cotton Bowl if they get that far. Sadly, that will be the end of the line.
We have seen two other teams built similarly get blown out already in the form of Indiana and SMU.
6. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
At this time, I believe Notre Dame is the worst team remaining that can conceivably win a national championship. They have enough stars on both sides of the ball to keep it interesting, but the Fighting Irish's pathway towards winning a national championship is brutal. Not only do they have to beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, but might have to beat Penn State in the Orange Bowl to get there.
Notre Dame is talented enough in the trenches to potentially upset teams like the Dawgs and Nittany Lions, but are just not explosive enough outside the numbers to keep pace with whoever comes out of the other side of the bracket. They could get the best of Arizona State, but I feel strongly that Oregon, Texas and Ohio State all have more dudes than they do. Notre Dame can only win in one way.
Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love and Al Golden's defense better be ready to play 12 more quarters.
5. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
Right now, I think Ohio State can win a national championship. They have the depth and the high-end players to make that happen. While the Buckeyes are a bit more shaky than I would like to see out of a serious national title contender, you and I and everyone saw what they just did to Tennessee. That was the best game Ohio State has played in the Ryan Day era. The Buckeyes left no stone unturned.
However, they have a difficult path with an Oregon rematch coming up in the Rose Bowl. After that you would face either Arizona State or Texas in probably the Cotton Bowl before getting the best team to come out of Georgia's side of the bracket in Atlanta between the Dawgs, Boise State, Penn State and Notre Dame. If Ohio State was a bit steadier, I would give them a better shot at winning it all.
Ohio State's highs are high, but their lows are concerning; they offer way too much variance for me.
4. No. 5 Texas Longhorns
I may be slightly biased because I saw my alma mater already beat Texas twice this season, but this is absolutely a team that can win the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns were one of six teams I was most confident about doing so heading into this season. Fate would have it, all six of them are still vying for the playoff. My concern with Texas is the health and play of quarterback Quinn Ewers.
Simply put, he is not healthy enough or consistent enough to beat teams like Arizona State, Oregon and Georgia in succession alone. He needs the help of his backup Arch Manning to turn their red-zone trips into seven points, as opposed to settling for the occasional three off the foot of Bert Auburn. This team is built to win a national championship, but I need to see more to be convinced.
There is not nearly as much variance with Texas as there is with Ohio State, but how high is their high?
3. No. 1 Oregon Ducks
We have arrived at the top-seeded Oregon Ducks, the only team left without a blemish on its resume. Oregon has three wins over playoff teams in Boise State, Ohio State and Penn State. They will be drawing a the Buckeyes in a brutal national quarterfinals matchup in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State is out for blood. Oregon has the horses to hang with anyone, but I have yet to see the Ducks go full throttle.
The coaching is stupendous under Dan Lanning. Again, Oregon has exactly what it takes to win the playoff. The problem is their lack of adversity could make it challenging to overcome a major deficit at the hands of a team who has already dealt with some. More importantly, I wonder if Dillon Gabriel's lack of size and left-handedness could be a problem when going up against an elite pass rush or two.
Oregon could absolutely win the national championship, but the Ducks will have to earn their way.
2. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
I am all-in on the Penn State Nittany Lions potentially winning the whole thing. They have dudes everywhere and are phenomenally coached. While James Franklin is great at winning games as the favorite, his team rarely shows up when they are the underdogs. The reason why I have them ahead of two Big Ten teams who beat them previously in Ohio State and Oregon is they have the easiest path.
While Penn State would have to beat either Georgia or Notre Dame to get to Atlanta, getting SMU and Boise State back-to-back is arguably the easiest playoff pathway imaginable. What it does is allows players like Drew Allar to play with confidence and for the Abdul Carters of the world to wreak havoc on lesser competition. Penn State has to win four games to win it all, but its first two are quite breezy.
Whoever wins the national semifinal down in Miami on the Georgia side of the bracket will be my pick.
1. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs
And of course, I have arrived at my alma mater of Georgia at No. 1. This is not biased, but rather a statement of fact. There is not a more physical team left in the College Football Playoff than them Dawgs. More importantly, there is not a more battle-tested team left in the postseason either. They have four wins over playoff teams and will be well-rested heading into the Sugar Bowl vs. Notre Dame.
While Gunner Stockton will be getting the start at least in the Sugar Bowl, that may not necessarily be a bad thing for the Georgia offense. Mike Bobo may simplify the scheme for his guy to allow him to make plays in space with his arms and legs. Most importantly, no head coach is better at halftime adjustments in the game today than Kirby Smart. He will have his team fired up to play anybody.
Georgia may have what it takes to win three games in a row to win its third national title in four years.