College football rankings: Power ranking the 12 CFP teams by national title chances

We have the first 12-team College Football Playoff field set. It went down to the wire, but the Selection Committee did the right thing by not punishing SMU for losing the ACC Championship Game in favor of shoehorning a three-loss Alabama Crimson Tide team into the playoff field for no reason. Some hailing from The Yellowhammer State may feel differently, but this field is the right one.

This is a brand-new postseason format. The five highest-ranked conference champions all make the field. The four highest-ranked will receive first-round byes. The other seven teams will be of the at-large variety. No. 5 will host No. 12, No. 6 will host No. 11, No. 7 will host No. 10 and No. 8 will host No. 9 at their home stadiums in the first round before we get to the neutral-site national quarterfinals.

Here is the College Football Playoff field and the 12 teams still in line to win a national championship.

1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) (SEC champion)
3. Boise State Broncos (11-2) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
4. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)
5. Texas Longhorns (11-2) (SEC runner-up)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
11. SMU Mustangs (11-2) (ACC runner-up)
12. Clemson Tigers (10-3) (ACC champion)

Some of these first-round matchups are very intriguing. Obviously, No. 8 Ohio State hosting No. 9 Tennessee grabs our attention right away. We also have a pair of instate foes who rarely play, as No. 7 Notre Dame will host No. 10 Indiana. From there, we will eventually see the College Football Playoff crown a national champion. The biggest question right now is what teams have the best chances.

Let me power rank all 12 playoff-bound teams by their realistic chances of winning the entire thing.

12. Boise State Broncos

It does not matter that Boise State is 12-1, nor does it matter that the Broncos have a first-round bye to the Fiesta Bowl as the No. 3 seed. This is the No. 9 ranked team being overseeded up to No. 3 for reasons we will talk about all offseason long. For as much as I have loved to watch Ashton Jeanty run all over the opposition this year, it has been against inferior competition playing in the Group of Five.

Boise State will face the winner of No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl for their national quarterfinals. I don't know if SMU would certainly beat them, but I love Penn State's chances to do so. After that, if Boise State improbably advances, they will face the winner of the Sugar Bowl between No. 2 Georgia and either No. 7 Notre Dame or No. 10 Indiana. They would not get to the semifinals.

While it is great to see the Group of Five represented in the playoff field, it has its inherent limitations.

11. Clemson Tigers

The Clemson Tigers punched their ticket into the playoff by beating SMU on a last-second field goal to win the ACC Championship. They only got to play in its conference title bout because Miami threw up all over itself vs. Syracuse. Clemson's regular-season finale saw the Tigers lose The Palmetto Bowl to South Carolina in the final seconds. While Clemson earned its playoff spot, this is not a great team.

The reason I give the Tigers a slightly better chance to win the playoff than Boise State is because Clemson is a Power Four school, meaning they recruit at a top-tier level. As far as why I do not believe Clemson can win it all is they would have to beat Texas, Arizona State and probably Oregon back-to-back-to-back to even play someone like a Georgia for the national championship game.

There are no easy draws for Clemson in the playoff this year, mostly because they are the easy draw.

10. SMU Mustangs

I am not giving the SMU Mustangs much of a chance to win the College Football Playoff due in part because I do not think they have it in them to win multiple playoff games. My biggest issue with SMU potentially winning a national title has been the Ponies' inability to beat even one single team of quality. They have a bunch of wins over ACC tomato cans, plus a pair of good losses on their tab.

Even if they were to somehow beat Penn State in Happy Valley in their first-round matchup, I have a hard time seeing them getting past the semifinals should they knock off Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Again, you would have to beat either No. 2 Georgia, No. 7 Notre Dame or No. 10 Indiana to even get to a national championship game. I feel that two playoff wins is this team's ceiling, albeit unlikely.

SMU is on the right side of the bracket to win a game or two, but probably not anymore than that.

9. Indiana Hoosiers

For very similar reasons why I do not believe in SMU, I just cannot envision a pathway that gets Indiana the four required victories to be named College Football Playoff National Champions. While I think they can definitely upset Notre Dame in the No. 10 at No. 7 first-round matchup, as well as play out of their minds to stun a depleted No. 2 Georgia team, are they even getting to the national title?

From there, you would need to hope that either Boise State or SMU were to upset Penn State. Then again, Penn State totally has it in them to throw up all over themselves in a big game. Should Indiana get to the national championship game, how much do you think the Hoosiers would lose by to someone of superior quality like an Oregon or a Texas? Again, this team does not have a quality win!

Indiana has shown an ability to score a ton of points, but has not show it can beat a worthy adversary.

8. Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State's chances of winning the College Football Playoff went from about zero to slightly more than that after championship weekend. Not only did the Sun Devils get a first-round bye to the Peach Bowl as the Big 12 champions, but they are playing a physical brand of football that I think would be a problem for most other teams they would be facing. I think they could win a playoff game or two, y'all.

The biggest thing the Sun Devils have working for them is they only need to win three games to win a national title now by avoiding the first-round game. Clemson did the Sun Devils a huge favor in that. As far as them winning a national title, I think they could beat either Texas or Clemson in the Peach Bowl, maybe stun Oregon in the Cotton Bowl, but then it the team's lack of depth would take over.

Arizona State has the potential to be a giant killer in the playoff, but they cannot do it three times.

7. Tennessee Volunteers

I go back and forth on the Tennessee Volunteers' chances of winning a national title. While I am more confident that they could pull it off over teams like Arizona State, Indiana and SMU, I do wonder if they can win four playoff games in a row with Nico Iamaleava as their starting quarterback. More importantly, I question if Josh Heupel's offense is going to be able to keep giving defenses fits here.

Tennessee has a brutal first-round matchup. Not only do the Vols have to play Ohio State (they were always going to), but they have to play the Buckeyes in The Horseshoe. After that, they would then get to play Oregon in the Rose Bowl. While the Vols could win both of those games, as well as getting past someone like Arizona State or Texas in the semifinals, could they beat Georgia to win it all?

Tennessee is incredibly borderline to win the playoff, but I am actually giving them a slight chance to.

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame will be well-rested when it comes to their first-round playoff matchup. The only problem is so will the Indiana Hoosiers, who did not play in their conference championship either. While Notre Dame could definitely beat Indiana at home, there is virtually no travel to be had for the Hoosiers. Playing in the elements is something that team is accustomed to as well. That game will be so close...

After that, Notre Dame would have to beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and then either Boise State, Penn State or Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Again, I am not ruling that out from happening. If they were to get matched up with an Arizona State, an Oregon or a Texas in the national championship, then I think they have a real shot at it. My biggest issue is Notre Dame getting past Georgia in NOLA.

Keep in mind Georgia will be well-rested for that game, while Notre Dame will have played Indiana.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State feels just as likely to win the national championship as it does to lose at home to Tennessee in its first-round game and then fire Ryan Day before he exits the stadium. The Buckeyes are the team with the greatest amount of variance of any team in the playoff this year. There is no team they cannot match up with man-for-man. They also have it in them to lose to anyone they play.

The good news for the Buckeyes is they have the players and the depth to navigate one of the most difficult playoff paths this year. After beating Tennessee, they would have to beat Oregon in the Rose Bowl in a rematch from the regular season. In presumably the Cotton Bowl, they would have to beat either Arizona State, Texas or Clemson to get to the national championship. I do not trust Ryan Day...

Ohio State is talented enough to win the College Football Playoff, but Day will be why they might not.

4. Texas Longhorns

Texas was my pick by default to win the national title a week ago. I may have emo-hedged to pick against my beloved Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game. Right now, Texas has a fairly navigable path to the national championship. That requires beating Clemson at home and then ending Arizona State's season in Atlanta to get to their national semifinals date in the Cotton Bowl.

Potentially meeting them in Arlington would be someone like Oregon, Ohio State or Tennessee. Those are all teams the Longhorns could conceivably beat to play someone like Georgia or Penn State in the national championship back in Atlanta. My biggest concern for Texas is Quinn Ewers' ability to separate and elevate consistently when the Longhorns must face the best competition.

While I do think Texas is capable of winning a national title, it is only possible if Arch Manning plays.

3. Oregon Ducks

The Oregon Ducks are the betting favorite to win the national championship, but I am not so sure I believe they will even get there. Oregon may be the only undefeated team left in college football, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Dillon Gabriel may come unraveled going up against an SEC pass rush. More importantly, Oregon has shown an ability to play down to its complicated, so it may get burned.

Right now, Oregon is sitting comfortably as the No. 1 seed, awaiting the winner of Tennessee at Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. That is a brutal national quarterfinal draw for the Ducks, no matter how you slice it. It may get a tad easier in having to face either Arizona State, Texas or Clemson in the national semifinals. If they faced Georgia, Penn State or whoever in Atlanta, I think they could win the playoff.

Oregon may be the No. 1 seed, but the Ducks do not have the easiest path to a title whatsoever.

2. Penn State Nittany Lions

Yes, I am going out on a limb and saying that if Penn State can play like it did vs. Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, the Nittany Lions can actually win a national title. Drew Allar played the best game of his career in defeat. It showed me that this team is not going to keel over and die at the first sign of adversity in the playoff. Plus, have you seen how breezy of a playoff pathway the CFP just gave them?!

Penn State would get to host SMU in their first-round game as the No. 6 seed. Next up would be a date with the No. 3-seeded Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl. After that, you would face the best team emerging from Georgia, Notre Dame and Indiana's quadrant of the bracket. Penn State could conceivably get past all of them if they play like that. My biggest concern for them is James Franklin.

Should Penn State win the Orange Bowl to go to the national title, I think they can win the entire thing.

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Finally, we have arrived at my pick to win it all. Georgia was my preseason pick to beat, I believe Oregon in the national championship. It was either the Ducks or Ohio State; I cannot honestly remember. I said on last Thursday's episode of False Start that whoever won the SEC would be my pick to win the first 12-team College Football Playoff. I did not know Georgia has this win in them...

So while they sit and wait for the better team from the State of Indiana to come meet them in New Orleans, the Dawgs will have had nearly a month to rest and recover. If Georgia wins in The Big Easy, they would then face either Boise State, Penn State or SMU in probably the Orange Bowl. After that, the Dawgs would be back in their own backyard playing for a national championship in Atlanta, folks.

Georgia has one of the easiest paths to a national championship, while also getting a first-round bye.