College football rankings, early AP Top 25 prediction for 2025: Arch Manning's Texas leads, Ohio State right behind

The Ohio State Buckeyes were flirting with the No. 1 spot in college football rankings throughout much of the season but dropped off at the end of the regular season with the disheartening loss to Michigan. Ryan Day, however, probably only cares about the fact that Ohio State ends the year at No. 1 in the rankings, which is what they secured on Monday night with the embattled head coach's first national championship in Columbus.

Ohio State proved to be the most dominant team in the sport, or at least at the right time in the CFP, with a dominant win over Notre Dame that left them hoisting the natty. But this is college football and we as fans are always quick to turn the page. Naturally, the best way to do that is to take the too-early look at next season's college football rankings.

Specifically, we'll do our best to look at the landscape and predict what the 2025 preseason AP Top 25 rankings will look like. Spoiler: Ohio State is still involved, but the Buckeyes will once again be chasing No. 1 to start the year. With that, let's get into our projections for next year.

No. 25-21

25. Oklahoma Sooners

If you needed any sign that this is projecting what AP Top 25 voters will do for the preseason poll, look no further than Oklahoma being included. I remain quite skeptical that Brent Venables is a good head coach and, while John Mateer is a nice addition via the transfer portal, the offensive line remains an issue, as does the receiving corps after mass portal losses. I’ll believe it when I see it, but the Sooners brand is strong enough to believe that voters may not feel the same. 

24. Nebraska Cornhuskers

After an arduous run to try and get there, Nebraska finally made it back to a bowl game. Now, Matt Rhule should have his sights set much higher than that. Dylan Raiola probably needs to quit the Patrick Mahomes cosplay but the kid has talent and now a much-improved receiver room with Dane Key coming into the fold. Rhule has hit the portal hard and effectively for the Huskers and this program should take another big step forward into national relevance. 

23. Texas A&M Aggies

It’s a strange feeling to be higher on the Texas A&M offense than the defense going into a new year, but that’s where we’re at. I have full faith in Mike Elko to get the most out of his preferred side of the ball, but the losses of Shemar Stewart, Nic Scourton and more can’t be overlooked. But with Marcel Reed entrenched as the starter and a now-upgraded wide receiver room, the Aggies could be exceedingly dangerous if the defense doesn’t drop off as much as it could. 

22. Illinois Fighting Illini

Sneakily, Illinois might be either the third or fourth-best bet to win the Big Ten next season. This team won 10 games after an emphatic bowl victory over South Carolina and now returns 16 starters. Really, what holds the Fighting Illini back is the fact that they’ve long been considered well in the second tier of the conference hierarchy. That could change in the 2025 campaign but they’ll start with a bit of disrespect as it pertains to the preseason college football rankings. 

21. Indiana Hoosiers

We’re going to see pretty quickly how well Curt Cignetti can sustain the rocketship that he strapped to the Indiana football program in his first season with the Hoosiers. Getting Fernando Mendoza from Cal in the portal is a great start and there are several key contributors on both sides of the ball returning. Still, living up to the magic of 2024 is going to be difficult to accomplish, so they’ll be further down in the rankings than perhaps they should be. 

No. 20-16

20. Kansas State Wildcats

There is a real chance that Avery Johnson and Kansas State make a big leap in the 2025 season and no one should be surprised if that turns out to be the case. If we’re trying to project the preseason AP Top 25 rankings, though, I have a hard time seeing voters being able to overlook how sporadic this team’s performances were this past year. That can be turned on its head quickly, but expect some trepidation about the Wildcats from voters coming into the season.

19. Auburn Tigers

Hugh Freeze and the Tigers had a rough go of it in the 2024 season but the arrow could skyrocket upward for Auburn going into 2025. I’m still a Jackson Arnold truther who believes his issues were more Oklahoma-centric than about the young signal-caller. Beyond that, Freeze has attacked both the recruiting trail and transfer portal quite well in the past two offseasons, meaning that Auburn won’t be the punching bag it’s unfortunately been of late. 

18. Ole Miss Rebels

Obviously, the transfer-heavy roster that fell short of the College Football Playoff has already started to be rebuilt by Lane Kiffin. The biggest question, though, is how Austin Simmons will fare in replacing Jaxson Dart. There are more question, to be sure, but Ole Miss has become a more bankable commodity than you might realize under Kiffin, which means they’ll surely curry some favor with AP voters. 

17. Iowa State Cyclones

It’ll be fascinating to see how Iowa State contends with the losses of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel as the star receiver duo was huge for the Cyclones offense. The answer to that likely is trusting Rocco Becth in year three along with a stout, experienced offensive line and Carson Hansen at running back. Regardless, Matt Campbell earned the benefit of the doubt again this past season with a stellar campaign and Big 12 Championship Game berth. 

16. SMU Mustangs

We’re very much trying to get into the minds of voters here when it comes to SMU because, well, I’d have the Mustangs several spots higher than No. 16 in these rankings. But this feels like the exact type of team, despite a conference championship game and CFP appearance, that won’t get the preseason respect it deserves. With Kevin Jennings and a strong defensive core still in place, though, SMU might just be here to stay at the Power 4 level. 

No. 15-11

15. Michigan Wolverines

On one hand, Michigan and Sherrone Moore will lose unequivocally the best parts of their roster from 2024 with Mason Graham and Will Johnson heading to the NFL Draft. But when you’re bringing in a generational recruit like Bryce Underwood along with having a sustained pipeline of high-level defensive talent, there’s every reason to believe the Wolverines are bouncing back when they take the field in 2025. 

14. Florida Gators

Remember when we were all just waiting on Billy Napier to get his pink slip at Florida? The second half of the season changed the narrative dramatically in Gainesville and the Gators are now already getting preseason love for 2025. To be sure, it’s deserved. DJ Lagway flashed more than enough to believe he’s the future of a tantalizing offense while the trench play truly impressed at the end of this year. All of a sudden, things are looking way up for Napier. 

13. Arizona State Sun Devils

Losing Cam Skattebo will absolutely sting for Arizona State but replacing him with Army transfer Kanye Udoh is a great move by Kenny Dillingham. Throw in the fact that Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson are returning, and the young head coach has the Sun Devils still on the ascent. ASU fully earned the right to go into next season as the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 and not only that, but I expect them to live up to that preseason billing as well. 

12. LSU Tigers

One could pretty easily make the argument that LSU should be much higher than this as they go into the 2025 season. While I remain perpetually dubious of Brian Kelly, the same is not true of Garrett Nussmeier, who has a real shot to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft, especially with Nic Anderson and Barion Brown entering the fray. Most importantly, though, the Tigers finally used the portal to plug holes across the board on defense. If that unit gels and improves greatly, that’s a big feather in the cap for everyone involved in Baton Rouge. 

11. Miami Hurricanes

I was fully prepared to have Miami much lower in these projections for the preseason college football rankings but Carson Beck changes that math. While questions about the health of his elbow remain valid, this offense is primed to cook. What should be considered a great sign for the Hurricanes, though, is that Mario Cristobal has worked hard to reshape the defense that let this team down so often in 2024, not the least of which was hiring Corey Hetherman.

No. 10-6

10. South Carolina Gamecocks

We’re going to take a swing here and say that AP Top 25 voters will feel the same about South Carolina as I do going into the 2025 campaign. LaNorris Sellers should be an early favorite for the Heisman Trophy given his growth this season for the Gamecocks while the defense returns real star power in Dylan Stewart as well. Sellers looks primed to take another step forward and South Carolina should be considered a viable sleeper to not just make the Playoff but perhaps win the SEC. 

9. Tennessee Volunteers

Nico Iamaleava’s debut as Tennessee’s starting QB perhaps wasn’t as impactful as many fans in Knoxville had hoped. I remain a believer in the Vols young quarterback, though, and there were real signs that Josh Heupel’s team can be more than its offense. Though the defense will lose key pieces like James Pearce Jr., they have talent waiting in the wings and were able to retain Tim Banks as the coordinator. Don’t sleep on Nico and the Vols making a big step forward in 2025. 

8. Clemson Tigers

To be clear, Dabo Swinney isn’t exactly Lane Kiffin in the transfer portal but the Clemson head coach is finally dipping his toe in the waters. When you see that combined with the return of Cade Klubnik, Peter Woods, Sammy Brown and much more, that puts the Tigers in a great spot moving into the 2025 season. Clemson already made it to the ACC Championship Game and the Playoff this past season, so why wouldn’t I expect this team to be even better next year?

7. Alabama Crimson Tide

This is probably the biggest disagreement I personally have with these projections. I think the A on the helmet will still matter quite a bit to AP Top 25 voters in the preseason but I have serious questions about Alabama in year two of Kalen DeBoer. There isn’t a surefire answer to replacing Jalen Milroe, the defense took a step back and will suffer losses now too, and the run game has been lacking by Bama standards for a couple years now. I’m willing to be proven wrong because this is the Crimson Tide, but I have my doubts. 

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

If you thought that Notre Dame’s run in 2024 was a one-year wonder type of deal for the Fighting Irish, think again. Even though Riley Leonard has exhausted his college eligibility, the quarterback room appears in a fine spot moving forward. More importantly, though, just about everyone starting in the National Championship Game could be back in South Bend next season. With the strides Marcus Freeman has made, the Irish aren’t going anywhere. 

No. 5-1

5. Oregon Ducks

There is going to be some roster turnover at Oregon, most notably with former 5-star Dante Moore taking over for Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. At the same time, Dan Lanning has been building a program and roster to sustain change, not only with his high-level recruiting since he arrived in Eugene but also with his masterful use of the transfer portal. The Big Ten is going to be a gauntlet in 2025 but the Ducks are absolutely made to more than hold their own in that daunting arena. 

4. Georgia Bulldogs

The CFP quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame in Gunner Stockton’s first career start at Georgia might not have many fans thinking the Dawgs will be back near the top of the sport. Don’t be fooled by that. For one, Stockton actually showed a lot of promising signs but this should be a better-constructed group with more offensive playmakers. With a defense that’s proven we can count on it year in and year out under Kirby Smart, there’s no reason not to believe in Georgia being a national championship contender again. 

3. Penn State Nittany Lions

Losing Abdul Carter is going to hurt for the Penn State defense but replenishing that side of the ball has not been an issue for the Nittany Lions under James Franklin. It’s also more about what’s returning as I expect Drew Allar to take another step forward in year two under Andy Kotelnicki and with Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton also coming back. If they can upgrade the receiver room, which I fully believe they almost have to at this point, Penn State is back atop the CFP mix again without a doubt. 

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Yes, Ohio State is going to lose quite a bit from the 2024 roster that they paid an ungodly amount of NIL to construct, including Will Howard, Emeka Egbuka, Jack Sawyer, the running back duo and so on. And yet, the Buckeyes are a talent factory that smoke is still rising from. Former 5-star quarterback Julian Sayin offers potentially even more upside than Howard while Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs obviously return as well. The haters won’t like it but OSU isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

1. Texas Longhorns

The weight of the world is going to be placed upon Arch Manning’s shoulders, or at least that’s going to be the narrative. You can count me among the believers in the former No. 1 overall recruit and his ability to not just step into Quinn Ewers’ shoes but perhaps need a bigger size with the Longhorns. But really, this goes beyond just Arch as the defense should be elite and the playmaking talent may actually be even better than it was in 2024.