Projected AP Top 25 CFB rankings after Week 10
We knew that one of these weeks was coming and, now that it's here, the AP Top 25 college football rankings are going to get thrown into complete disarray. How else could you qualify that with three previously unbeaten teams losing, four teams in the Top 15 losing and three of those losses coming in upset fashion?
The headliner of Week 10 was at noon with the Ohio State Buckeyes continuing their reign of terror over the Penn State Nittany Lions, giving James Franklin's team their first loss of the season. Little did we know, that was just the start of the calamity as Penn State was just the first undefeated team to suffer its first loss on Saturday with Iowa State and Pittsburgh also taking their first losses. And let's not forget about Texas A&M being upset at South Carolina, Clemson falling to unranked Louisville at home, and Kansas State inexplicably losing to Houston.
So yes, the chaos is here, just in time for the first College Football Playoff rankings to be released this week. But before we get there, let's see what the AP Top 25 rankings can tell us and what our projections tell us that poll will look like when it comes out on Sunday.
No. 25-21
25. Louisville Cardinals
There’s a case to be made for Pitt still being ranked, despite getting their teeth kicked in by SMU, but the Panthers were No. 18 despite being undefeated because their resumé was lacking. Louisville’s, especially after now beating Clemson in dominant upset fashion in Death Valley, isn’t. The Cardinals don’t have a bad loss going against them (Miami, Notre Dame, SMU) and now have a signature win. So give me the first of a few three-loss teams now in the AP Top 24. South Carolina Gamecocks
24. South Carolina Gamecocks
Sure, a 5-3 record isn’t going to change the world when you look at this South Carolina team but Shame Beamer’s group proved against Texas A&M with an emphatic upset win that they deserve to be ranked. Not only do they have this feather in their cap now, but their losses have all come against Top 25 teams and only Ole Miss was outside of a field goal in margin. This defense is legit and the offense keeps finding its way, which makes this team far friskier than anyone imagined.
23. Tulane Green Wave
Don’t look now but Jon Sumrall has the Tulane Green Wave absolutely cooking right now. On Thursday, they went on the road to Charlotte and beat the brakes off the 49ers. That’s what they’ve been doing, though, still remaining undefeated in American play to this point and with their only losses coming against Kansas State and Oklahoma. Those aren’t world-beaters but they also didn’t beat down the Greenies either, which is why Tulane deserves a place in the AP Top 25 with how they’ve been rolling.
22. Vanderbilt Commodores
Diego Pavia beating Hugh Freeze has simply been an inevitability for the past few college football seasons and that didn’t stop on Saturday. Pavia didn’t play his best game, completing only 9-of-22 passes but the Vanderbilt defense stifled Auburn consistently for another win to become bowl-eligible. With the Alabama win under their belt, the Commodores were on the cusp of still being ranked last week and retake a spot with some chaos and a big win in their favor in Week 10.
21. Colorado Buffaloes
After an emphatic win over Cincinnati last week, we knew that Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes were alive in the Big 12 race but needed some help. They got it on Saturday while on their bye with both Iowa State and Kansas State falling in upset fashion. The Buffs now have a clear path to a 10-2 season, a possible spot in a conference title game, and even a College Football Playoff berth. But they must keep things rolling at Texas Tech next week to keep those hopes alive.
No. 20-16
20. Washington State Cougars
With only a loss to Boise State working against them, Washington State cracked the AP Top 25 last week and now keeps moving up with teams ranked ahead of them going down. The Cougars don’t play a team over .500 in their final four games of the season and, while they have played some inferior opponents closer than they should’ve, an 11-1 Wazzu finish isn’t out of the question with what this team’s ceiling has looked like at times.
19. Army Black Knights
One of the biggest shocks of Week 10 was the late announcement that Army’s star quarterback, Bryson Daily, would be out for Saturday’s matchup with Air Force. It was clear that the Black Knights offense wasn’t as dynamic without Daily but it ultimately didn’t matter. Army remains the only team that has yet to trail this season after a 20-3 stomping of a fellow service academy. Notre Dame is the marquee game still remaining but Army can’t overlook North Texas next week either, especially with questions now about Daily’s availability.
18. Clemson Tigers
Since the Georgia loss in Week 1, it had seemed like Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers had righted the ship and were well on their way to another ACC Championship Game. Well, it turns out, they might’ve just benefitted from the level of competition. Louisville put the work on Clemson in Death Valley on Saturday night and now the Tigers are back to the drawing board. They aren’t out of the ACC race but they no longer control their own destiny.
17. Iowa State Cyclones
Matt Campbell’s Iowa State even entering Week 10 of the regular season with a zero in the loss column was a surprise. However, even with the bye week to recover, it felt like the Cyclones were playing with fire after a near loss to UCF in their previous outing. They weren’t as lucky to escape against Texas Tech, though, failing to put together another miracle drive in the last minute after the defense gave up too much to the Red Raiders. Now, Iowa State is going to fall and doesn’t remotely control its destiny in the Big 12 race.
16. Ole Miss Rebels
The last time we saw Ole Miss, Lane Kiffin’s Rebels looked a bit out of sorts despite winning against Oklahoma. The bye, apparently, did this team some good and Arkansas was on the wrong end of it, even in Fayetteville. Jaxson Dart had a 500-yard, six-touchdown performance, the bulk of which went to Jordan Watkins (8-254-5) in a 63-31 drubbing. Suffice it to say that their date with Georgia next week just got a lot more interesting.
No. 15-11
15. LSU Tigers
Despite the brutal loss to Texas A&M wherein Brian Kelly and his staff were clearly caught on their heels, LSU had the week off and moves back up in the rankings amid the Week 10 chaos. If LSU really wants to reinsert itself into the College Football Playoff conversation, though, the Tigers will have that opportunity as they renew the program’s rivalry with Alabama next week in a matchup with monstrous CFP implications.
14. Texas A&M Aggies
Is there anything more appropriate for Texas A&M than securing what I labeled as a program-defining win for the Aggies last week against LSU only for this team to go on the road to South Carolina and get thoroughly beaten down? After looking like a lock to make the Playoff following last week’s victory, Texas A&M now looks like they have to beat Texas in the season finale to get in — and that’s only if they don’t inexplicably get caught again by New Mexico State or Auburn.
13. Boise State Broncos
While so many teams around the country, Power 4 and Group of 5 alike, keep faltering, Boise State keeps handling its business. Ashton Jeanty remains the heartbeat of the Broncos as they rolled over San Diego State, but Maddux Madsen continues to show week-by-week improvement and look like a much better football team. Boise’s only loss is still to top-ranked Oregon, and their body of work makes them the clear frontrunner still to represent the G5 in the College Football Playoff.
12. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama got the week off and is another beneficiary of a chaotic Week 10 as they jump up three spots in our projections. I stand by the fact that a win over a hamstrung Missouri team doesn’t tell us all too much about the Crimson Tide. However, this team is extremely live to make the Playoff and a win over rival LSU next week would go a long, long way in proving that they belong in the 12-team field.
11. SMU Mustangs
This is a huge jump up in the AP Top 25 rankings for the SMU Mustangs after they were No. 20 in last week’s poll. However, Rhett Lashlee’s team showed that it’s wholly deserving and, in my opinion, will make believers out of the AP voters when they submit their ballots this weekend. How could they not recognize this team given that they went into a massive showdown with previously undefeated Pitt and left absolutely no doubt who the better team was?
Kevin Jennings, who was questionable for much of the week, got the start and the Panthers had no answers for him behind 306 yards passing and two touchdowns. Brashard Smith was also a beast with 161 yards and two scores on the ground, but it was the SMU defense that truly stonewalled Pitt and made Pat Narduzzi’s team look quite fraudulent. With only a loss to BYU against them, how is this not the makings of a Top 10 team, especially with so may other teams faltering?
No. 10-9
10. Indiana Hoosiers
While two unbeatens fell on Saturday and questions mount for some of the others, those same questions are getting pushed aside by the Indiana Hoosiers with each passing week. In fact, there were some who were questioning what Curt Cignetti’s team would look like on the road in a tough environment like Michigan State, especially if they fell behind for the first time this season. Well, that’s exactly what happened and it was no problem at all for Kurtis Rourke and Co.
Despite trailing 10-0 early, that just sparked the Hoosiers to turn on the afterburners. Indiana scored 47 unanswered points from that point forward as this team just continues to impress at every turn. Rourke returned to throw for 263 yards and four touchdowns but the defense looks wildly fierce, forcing two interceptions and allowing only 193 total yards on the day. People can keep sleeping on the Hoosiers, but do so at your own peril at this point.
9. Penn State Nittany Lions
Things could not have been set up more perfectly for James Franklin and his Penn State Nittany Lions to finally win the big one. They were in Happy Valley with Ohio State coming to town while the Buckeyes had a compromised offensive line, a quarterback in Will Howard who has been fine but not much more, and arguably the most talented PSU roster of the Franklin era. And even with all of that, it didn’t matter.
It was arguably the same game that we’ve seen in each of the past four-to-five years. Penn State turned a Howard turnover into a pick-six to take an early 10-0 lead but couldn’t protect it. The defense played well but the offense, even with Drew Allar playing and Andy Kotelnicki guiding him, couldn’t do much of anything. So with that, the Nittany Lions took their first loss of the year and, despite all of the optimism, the same questions from years past remain for this program.
No. 8-7
8. BYU Cougars
Well, that's on me. On Saturday night in the thick of everything, BYU got lost in the shuffle of the projections. A big-time blunder and no excuse. But this is where the Cougars would've and should've been. This team is looking like a runaway in the Big 12 right now amid all of the chaos, especially after bouncing back from the Week 8 near-upset against Oklahoma State to embarrass the UCF Knights. This team keeps finding ways to win and that's a real skill in a league wherein some teams are having real trouble with that.
Coming off of their Week 10 bye, we now get the Holy War at Rice-Eccles, which should be tough even with Utah having a down year, before hosting Kansas, visiting Arizona State and playing their season finale against Houston.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Whether you were among the many who forecasted it or not, Notre Dame shellacking Navy a week ago is going to be a signature win for the Irish. What’s more, the fact that Marcus Freeman’s team, even with the unsightly loss to Northern Illinois still blemishing their resumé, beat Texas A&M in the opener looks better with each passing week. And now, the runway to the Playoff is clearer than ever before.
Notre Dame will be a heavy favorite against Florida State and Virginia the next two weeks before their last real test of the year versus undefeated Army. But given what the Navy game looked like, even if Army is the better of the two service academies, the Irish should still roll in that one, the same of which is true in the finale against an ailing USC team. As long as this team doesn’t shoot itself in the foot — which, admittedly, isn’t a given, as Northern Illinois will tell you — it should be smooth sailing to a spot in the 12-team bracket.
No. 6-5
6. Tennessee Volunteers
Perhaps we should just get used to Tennessee victories in the 2024 season looking a helluva lot differently than we’re used to seeing from the Volunteers under Josh Heupel? Considering what we’ve seen Kentucky look like in recent weeks, one might’ve expected the Vols to just run amok over the Wildcats. That really wasn’t the case but, at the same time, Tennessee got another victory to move to 7-1 and actually showed some encouraging signs.
Nico Iamaleava had arguably his best game in SEC play, going 28-of-38 for 292 yards and a touchdown with no picks while Dylan Sampson rolled for 141 yards and two scores. And while Kentucky scored 18 points against the vaunted Vols defense, they also forced three turnovers and the Vols outgained them by 116 total yards. It might be much, much muddier than we ever thought it’d be but Tennessee remains very alive for the Playoff.
5. Texas Longhorns
After getting a scare put in them last week by Vanderbilt (a result that truly doesn’t look as bad as some would have you believe), the Texas Longhorns got a needed week off as they go into the bye. Perhaps this will give Quinn Ewers, who has not looked totally right since returning from an oblique injury, to get healthier and be more effective when Steve Sarkisian will need his veteran quarterback more than ever.
While Texas will be heavy favorites over their next three games against Florida, at Arkansas and then hosting Kentucky, the SEC has proven this season that no week is an off week or a time to let up. The Longhorns appear to be able to cruise into the Playoff at this point but they have to take care of business to make sure of that, especially considering that the season finale at Texas A&M now looks like a brutally difficult task for this team to complete.
No. 4-3
4. Miami Hurricanes
It may not always be pretty, it may not be without a sweat, but the Miami Hurricanes keep winning. For some teams, escaping the number of close calls that Mario Cristobal’s team has seen this season might be seen as a weakness. And to be sure, the fact that Miami is only moving up to No. 4 in the AP Top 25 is somewhat because that’s being held against The U. But at the same time, given the recent history of this program, it’s to the team’s credit that they’ve survived in these spots.
Cam Ward’s Heisman campaign got another boost with Saturday’s win over Duke, throwing for five touchdowns and 400 yards on the day. But Miami was trailing by 11 in the second half and the defense gave up 31 points to a tepid offense. That remains a point of concern for this team thus far but the zero in the loss column ultimately has to mean more than that when we’re nine games into the season.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
The good news is that the Georgia Bulldogs are still a one-loss team, the clear favorite in the SEC, and seemingly on track to be a lock for the College Football Playoff. The bad news is that, outside of how thoroughly Kirby Smart’s team stuck it to Texas, this group continues to show some serious red flags. The latest was trailing by a touchdown at halftime of the Cocktail Party and, if not for some serious injury woes for Florida, being in danger of being upset in another game they had no business losing.
Carson Beck has been going through a major slump of late, throwing three picks against the Gators, which makes three of his last five games in which he’s thrown three interceptions. His receivers haven’t done him a ton of favors either but the Georgia offense continues to look a bit suspect. And while we know the ceiling of the defense, playing to that ceiling has been inconsistent. Georgia can prove itself again soon but there is definite cause for concern in Athens.
No. 2-1
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
While the loss to Oregon earlier this season will keep Ohio State out of the No. 1 spot in the rankings, they should absolutely vault ahead of Georgia and into the No. 2 spot after handling Penn State on Saturday. It wasn’t the prettiest effort from Will Howard or the Buckeyes offense, but Jim Knowles’ defense went on the road and continued to make it clear to the rest of college football that they’re among the elite units in the country on that side of the ball.
I still worry about the ceiling of the Buckeyes but, when you compare their overall resumé to Georgia’s, there isn’t much comparison. Whereas Ohio State’s only loss is to Oregon, the Dawgs lost to a slowly fading Alabama team and have been pushed by Kentucky and now Florida. Ryan Day’s team doesn’t have those scares working against them either, so give me Ohio State to make the jump back into the Top 2.
1. Oregon Ducks
Given how inept Michigan has looked at times this season, you might’ve expected the No. 1-ranked team in the country to pour it on quite a bit more than Oregon did on Saturday against the Wolverines. However, a 21-point win in the Big House when Michigan’s defense remains one of the most talented in the country and with Sherrone Moore’s team showing signs of improvement can’t be ignored.
Dillon Gabriel wasn’t at his best, going 22-of-34 for 294 yards but only one touchdown (though he added another on the ground), but it didn’t ultimately matter. Jordan James and Noah Whittington combined for 153 yards and three scores while the defense held Michigan to just 270 yards of offense. It was dominant, even if it wasn’t reflected on the scoreboard, and the Ducks are in absolutely no danger of losing their top spot in the AP Top 25.