Projected AP Top 25 college football rankings after Week 12
Just last week, the Georgia Bulldogs got their heads kicked in by Ole Miss, plummeted down the AP Top 25 college football rankings and out of the projected College Football Playoff bracket, and seemed like the season was on the brink. After Saturday night's visit from rival Tennessee, though, that no longer is the case for the Dawgs.
It was an emphatic bounce-back win for Kirby Smart's team that capped off the meat of a wild Week 12. Saturday saw the No. 1-ranked Oregon Ducks get a shocking upset scare from Wisconsin, Texas and SMU get a little hairy against unranked opponents, and four teams ranked in the AP Top 25 fall, three of them losing to unranked opponents.
Naturally, there's going to be a lot of shuffling and plenty of new faces in the AP Top 25 college football rankings, so let's check out where our projections have the rankings sitting as we head on into Week 13.
No. 25-21
25. James Madison Dukes
I’ll be as real with you as possible, I have no clue who AP voters are going to slot in at No. 25. I firmly believe that LSU, Louisville, Missouri, Washington State and Kansas State all should not sniff the Top 25 but that doesn’t leave a lot of other options after Louisiana and Pitt both lost on Saturday. So we’re going with 8-2 JMU, who picked up a high-scoring win over Old Dominion. If it’s not James Madison, though, it’s hard to argue with any other team as well. We’re splitting hairs with teams that are clearly a cut below the rest of the rankings.
24. Illinois Fighting Illini
Back-to-back losses against Oregon and Minnesota put Illinois squarely outside the Top 25 but the 7-3 Fighting Illini got off the mat in Week 12 and delivered exactly what they needed. Some were thinking that Michigan State had a chance to deliver a big win for Sparty but Bret Bielema put a quick stop to that in a 38-16 rout in Champaign. Illinois is banged up and certainly might be a step behind in the Big Ten hierarchy, but the Illini have still done enough amid the chaos to get back into the AP Top 25.
23. UNLV Rebels
Since the loss to Boise State, we’ve barely talked about UNLV. That’s largely because they’ve played just one game after a bye since then but they went on the road to Hawaii and picked up a tough win. But after taking on San Diego State late on Saturday night and taking the Aztecs to task, we need to bring up the Rebels again. The defense still has warts but the Hajj-Malik Williams-led offense is dangerous enough against anyone to keep Barry Odom's team alive in the Mountain West and, thus, the CFP.
22. Iowa State Cyclones
Shouts to the heart that Iowa State showed on Saturday night against a good Cincinnati team. With how the wheels seemed like they could fall off for Matt Campbell’s Cyclones following back-to-back losses, they answered the bell with a double-digit victory. It’ll take a lot of help for Iowa State to find its way into the CFP or Big 12 Championship Game picture again but they stayed in position to make it possible if they were to receiver that help.
21. Arizona State Sun Devils
Goodbye Kansas State, hello Arizona State! The Sun Devils remain one of the biggest and most pleasant surprises of the 2024 season and they only added to that on Saturday with an upset win in Manhattan over the Wildcats. Don’t look now, but Kenny Dillingham’s team has an outside shot at making the Big 12 Championship Game at this point. And with how spirited of an effort the 8-2 program has given all season, you never know what could happen then.
No. 20-16
20. Tulane Green Wave
It’s not so quiet anymore that the Tulane Green Wave have to be taken seriously in the Group of 5 race for the College Football Playoff. They didn’t just beat Navy on Saturday — the Green Wave demoralized them in a 35-0 beatdown. Jon Sumrall’s first year with the program now has them back in the AAC title game for a date with Army and this team still hasn’t lost against non-Power 4 competition this season.
19. South Carolina Gamecocks
Hosting Missouri on Saturday, I’ll be honest, it was much hairier for South Carolina than expected. In fact, it looked near certain that Mizzou was going to steal the game with a late Luther Burden III touchdown. But the Gamecocks stormed down the field in the final minutes to retake the lead and the defense then sealed the win. Shane Beamer’s team might not be one of the best in the sport but they’re a team no one wants to see on the opposite sideline, especially with the ceiling of that defense.
18. Colorado Buffaloes
No one in the country should want to play Colorado right now. Sure, Travis Hunter might have the Heisman locked up and Shedeur Sanders could very well be a finalist too. At the same time, however, what’s stood out even more about this team is the improvements on defense and in the trenches overall. They handled Utah on Saturday and still remain in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 title game, which they might be favored in over BYU.
17. Clemson Tigers
Clemson is still alive in the ACC race as the Tigers need another Miami slip-up and to hold serve in their own right to get into the conference championship game. What we saw late against Pitt, however, inspires little confidence about what the ceiling of Dabo Swinney’s team actually is. Cade Klubnik bailed his team out with an electric go-ahead touchdown run but this team seems to often end up in its own way. That, of course, is never long-term viable.
16. Army Black Knights
It must feel quite good if you’re Army as you watch what happened in Week 12. Despite being off this week, the Black Knights locked up a spot in the AAC Championship Game, giving them an outside shot (for now) at the College Football Playoff. However, that shot becomes much more realistic and perhaps probable if Bryson Daily and Co. could shock the world and take down Notre Dame next week.
No. 15-11
15. Texas A&M Aggies
There was not a whole helluva lot to learn about Texas A&M on Saturday night as the Aggies hosted the Aggies, the latter being from New Mexico State. Marcel Reed accounted for three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) along with over 300 yards of offense. But this game was never close as A&M’s defense completely stonewalled NMSU, limiting them to just 6-of-21 passing and just a hair over 200 total yards in the game. But in reality, the one Mike Elko’s team only has circled is the finale against renewed rival Texas.
14. SMU Mustangs
All of the love I’ve given SMU over the past month or so seemed like it was going to haunt me as Boston College put the Mustangs on the ropes for much of Saturday’s game. Even though Rhett Lashlee’s group got a 38-28 win off the bye, it was not the prettiest effort, particularly from the defense. At the end of the day, though, SMU remains the only unbeaten team in the ACC and is looking like a lock to go to Charlotte for the conference title bout.
13. Boise State Broncos
If you happened to turn on the start of the Boise State-San Jose State game on Saturday night, we were very much on early upset alert. The Broncos were actually down 14-0 and the Spartans had the ball in the red zone. Boise came up with a stop and then won the remainder of the contest 42-7, though, keeping control of the Mountain West race. This defense, as it showed against SJSU, will keep things sweaty at times but the offense only keeps getting better as Maddux Madsen grows beside Ashton Jeanty in the backfield.
12. Tennessee Volunteers
The task at hand was exceedingly simple for the Tennessee Volunteers: Win at Georgia and you’re in the College Football Playoff, essentially. Of course, that’s easier said than done and the Vols found that out the hard way. After jumping out to a 10-0 lead, Tennessee’s defense looked as mortal as it has all year long and the offense was not the same when off-script. Now, this team is firmly on the bubble of the Playoff and might need a ton of chaos and help to actually get into the CFP.
11. BYU Cougars
It finally happened. For so much of the year, it seemed like luck was simply on BYU's side. That luck ran out against a red-hot Kansas team on Saturday night, though, as the Cougars took their first loss of the season. It was arguably the worst offensive performance of the season for this team but the good news is that the Big 12 Championship Game is still in their grasp. The only difference is now the Cougs will likely be more of a bid thief than safe as a champ or at-large.
No. 10-9
10. Miami Hurricanes
Miami, whether this is a good or a bad thing, had another week to fester in last week’s upset loss to Georgia Tech with a bye in Week 12. The good news for the Canes is the same it was a week ago — that they still control their path to the ACC Championship Game and, thus, the Playoff. However, Mario Cristobal needs to ensure that The U comes out and doesn’t play with fire and with its food in the manner that got them caught against the Yellow Jackets.
9. Georgia Bulldogs
While everyone was looking at last week’s demoralizing loss to Ole Miss, it seemed that the majority of college football fans were forgetting one simple fact, especially after Georgia was ostensibly named the first team out in Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings: If the Dawgs beat Tennessee, they could all but ensure a spot back in the Playoff and a move up the rankings. And that’s exactly what they were able to do.
Make no mistake, it looked early like the Vols might deliver more of the same of what Ole Miss gave to Georgia as Josh Heupel’s team jumped out to a 10-0 lead. But Carson Beck settled down and played by far his best game in more than a month. The defense too stepped up and blanked Tennessee in the second half for a statement win that avoids the tiresome conversation of if a three-loss Georgia could make the CFP.
No. 8-7
8. Ole Miss Rebels
It was an extra week to celebrate in Oxford as Ole Miss had the week off on the heels of a signature program win over Georgia last week. We should definitely still appreciate, even if the elements played a factor in it, just how dominant this team was against one of the most talented rosters in the country and what that victory ultimately means.
It’s been uneven overall this season for the Rebels but, with how they looked against the Dawgs and what they’ve shown at their best on both sides of the ball, Lane Kiffin’s team controls its own destiny for the College Football Playoff with only Florida and the Egg Bowl remaining on the schedule.
7. Alabama Crimson Tide
There’s not a single person who isn’t a delusional Mercer alum who thought that the Bears even had a snowball’s chance in hell of taking down Alabama in Week 12. And to be sure, that was exactly what we saw on the field. The Crimson Tide defense completely overwhelmed Mercer’s offense from the jump and there were no answers on the opposite side of the ball for the SEC speed as Bama rolled easily to a 52-7 victory.
With the dominant win over LSU last week, though, Kalen DeBoer’s team appears locked into a College Football Playoff spot as it’s difficult to imagine downtrodden Oklahoma or even rival Auburn getting one over on the Crimson Tide. What’s not being talked about enough, though, is how real of a chance Alabama also still has of winning the SEC and ending up with likely a top-two seed in the Playoff.
No. 6-5
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
There’s something to be said for a team going out and consistently handling their business and, once again, that’s what Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame did on Saturday. Virginia took down Pitt a week ago and could conceivably be considered one of the more challenging tests that the Irish have seen since their still-baffling loss to Northern Illinois early in the season. There was no such test, though.
Notre Dame’s defense was the biggest star of the day, forcing five turnovers on the day. Riley Leonard also did his thing, throwing for three touchdowns and rushing for 32 yards while Jereiyah Love had a 137-yard, two-score outing. Next week is the lone remaining scary spot for the Irish as they face undefeated Army but all systems are certainly going for this team right now.
5. Indiana Hoosiers
Even with Indiana on the bye in Week 12, it was a newsworthy one in Bloomington. There had been discussion for some time about other Power 4 programs — specifically bigger Power 4 programs — that could come in this offseason and try to poach head coach Curt Cignetti. That now looks far less likely after the Hoosiers locked up Coach Cig on a lucrative extension that should keep him at the helm of the program for the foreseeable future.
That’s obviously a huge win, but there’s no question that Cignetti and the rest of the Hoosiers program are looking for another big win next week. Indiana travels to Columbus for a matchup with Ohio State. While the Hoosiers will be underdogs, it’s also a potential opportunity to prove that the 10-0 record is more than just a product of a soft schedule — and all but lock up a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.
No. 4-3
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
No one should feel a single ounce differently about Penn State after Saturday’s decisive win than they did coming into Week 12. The Nittany Lions left absolutely no doubt in West Lafayette who was the better team between them and Purdue. That should never be in question, though, nor is it the question that we have about James Franklin’s team at this point in the season.
Throughout the head coach’s tenure, the book on Penn State has been that it can’t win the big one. The quiet part of that is that it also wins virtually every game that the Nittany Lions are supposed to, which a matchup with a dead-team-walking Purdue would qualify as. So for as dominant as this team was against the Boilermakers, it’s hard to wash out the taste of the ugly loss to Ohio State and not think that the age-old problem still exists.
3. Texas Longhorns
Maybe this is too much projecting on my part but it seemed as if Arkansas in Fayetteville was treating Saturday’s matchup with long-absent rival Texas as their Super Bowl. Meanwhile, it felt like just another game when it came to the Longhorns. That isn’t to say that Texas, specifically Quinn Ewers, didn’t look quite flawed at times but it is perhaps partially to blame for why Steve Sarkisian’s team only walked away with a 10-point victory.
Ewers and the offense seem to be, for better or worse, a week-to-week proposition at this point. They can light a defense up any given week but could also leave fans wanting. The defense, on the other hand, was dominant in containing Taylen Green and Co., which will continue to be the Longhorns’ calling card. Texas is still the frontrunner to win the SEC but there remains some reason to be skeptical of their national championship outlook.
No. 2-1
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
I don’t want to lie to you, so I won’t. It wasn’t the most impressive effort that we’ve ever seen from Ohio State. Sure, they beat a thoroughly outmatched Northwestern team 31-7 but, you know, shouldn’t we expect a bit more dominance from Ryan Day’s team — especially considering that the Buckeyes were held scoreless in the first quarter and actually trailed 7-0 early on.
Obviously, it’s a decisive win and to OSU’s credit, it put the game no longer in doubt by halftime. More importantly, this could certainly have been a designed look-ahead spot for Ohio State with a far more consequential date with Indiana looming next week. Having said that, if that wasn’t the case, then the Buckeyes could be in real danger next week against the Hoosiers because it could indicate that Ohio State at this exact moment doesn’t have the extra gear it may well need to avoid a second loss.
1. Oregon Ducks
Just about anyone looking at the remaining schedule for the Oregon Ducks probably would’ve thought that Dan Lanning’s team simply had to put this thing in cruise control and would be able to finish the regular season at 12-0. You’ve got to get to 10-0 to do that first, though, and Wisconsin made that look like much more difficult of a task than we ever believed they would on Saturday night in Camp Randall.
The Oregon defense remained rock solid throughout this game, including a four-down stop and then a game-sealing interception when the Badgers had a chance to tie or go for the win. Dillon Gabriel and the offense, however, looked quite mortal as the QB went just 22-of-31 for 218 yards, no scores and one pick and the run game averaged a meager 3.4 yards per carry. This is likely a blip on the radar but it does make the Ducks look more fallible than they have in quite some time.