College football rankings: Projected AP Top 25 after Alabama, Texas A&M go down, Indiana finally falls in Week 13

We didn't have to wait until rivalry week for the AP Top 25 college football rankings and the entirety of the College Football Playoff picture to get completely flipped upside down. The day started in Week 13 with the Ohio State Buckeyes handing Indiana its first loss of the season emphatically and that might've been the sixth or seventh most important result thanks to Alabama, Texas A&M, Colorado, BYU, and so many more chaotic games on the slate.

It's a week that we always know is coming but the full-force calamity is always exciting but also makes projecting the AP Top 25 college football rankings that much more difficult to decipher and figure out where to put teams.

But we're going to try our best, upsets and all, to figure out where teams should be slotted in the AP Top 25 after this ridiculously fun and even more so turbulent Week 13.

No. 25-21

25. Army Black Knights

Army still deserves to be ranked with still only one loss on the season but they also deserve to be on the back part of the Top 25… the very back part. The opportunity against Notre Dame turned out to be a nightmare. The offense got stonewalled, special teams miscues put them in a bad game-script and things just snowballed at Yankee Stadium for the Black Knights. They can still win the AAC but it doesn’t look great at this point for Army after that result.

24. Missouri Tigers

Since everyone seems so keen on keeping Missouri either in the rankings or on the cusp of them, sure, let’s put the Tigers back into the AP Top 25 as they were ostensibly 26th last week. A win over Mississippi State still isn’t a needle-mover and I’m still looking for the true signature win from this team to this point, but if we’re projecting what the voters will do, then we have to give Mizzou the same love those voters have been all year long. 

23. Illinois Fighting Illini

It very much looked like Illinois’ stay in the AP Top 25 after returning to the rankings was going to be short-lived as Rutgers had them in a dogfight. But a 40-yard touchdown pass to Pat Bryant in the final seconds saved the Illini from being another ranked casualty on Saturday. Illinois has weathered storm after storm this season and will now have an opportunity for an impressive nine-win finish if they can beat rival Northwestern in the finale

22. UNLV Rebels

Before all of Saturday’s calamity, UNLV played on Friday night. To their credit, they got the win behind a huge effort from running back Jai’Den Thomas but it was also not the prettiest effort. The Rebels were down 16-10 at halftime and Hajj-Malik Williams has definitely seen better days. A win’s a win, though, even if UNLV still doesn’t control its own Mountain West destiny thanks to Colorado State. 

21. Colorado Buffaloes

It’s not hyperbole to say that Colorado was among the hottest teams in college football coming into Saturday, looking like a lock to potentially make the Playoff out of the Big 12. But Kansas’ upset run continued with another ranked win. It was a dismal day for the Buffs as they stood no chance of stopping Devin Neal and the KU rushing attack, especially with it keeping the ball out of Colorado’s hands and disrupting rhythm. Now, the Buffaloes will need a world of help to get to the conference championship bout.

No. 20-16

20. Texas A&M Aggies

It was all right there in front of the Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday. Go to Auburn and beat a Tigers team that has beaten themselves too many times to count this season and you’re knocking on the door of the Playoff with a win over rival Texas next week. Instead, Auburn jumped on A&M and, though the Aggies fought back and had a late lead, they couldn’t hold on long enough as they allowed Auburn to tie it and force overtime late before going to four extra frames and dropping the chance to keep it going. Now, taking the big loss puts their immediate future in question. 

19. Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State is in full-on survival mode right now and it showed against Utah. Despite the Utes’ continued revolving door at quarterback, they were able to move the ball well. But shouts to Rocco Becht and the Cyclones offense for getting the job done, especially with a late drive to take the lead. Sure, they needed a missed field goal to secure the victory but it’s a testament to this team’s fight that they held on and stayed well alive in the Big 12 Championship Game race.

18. BYU Cougars

Life comes at you fast, which the BYU Cougars can absolutely attest to. They entered last week undefeated and now leave this week with two losses on the ledger. The Cougs were underdogs on the road against Arizona State and it showed. While BYU showed a ton of fight to overcome a three-score deficit and have a Hail Mary attempt at the end, they fell short. They’re still in line for a chance at the Big 12 Championship Game but it’s anything but certain now.

17. Tulane Green Wave

Along with Oregon, who we’ll get to, Tulane was the only team inside the AP Top 25 on a bye in the penultimate week of the regular season. That probably felt welcomed given what we saw happened to so many ranked teams on the week. But the Green Wave have been cruising of late and will have a Thanksgiving Day date with Memphis to complete a perfect AAC run in the regular season and with a shot at besting Boise or whoever for the G5 spot in the Playoff.

16. South Carolina Gamecocks

While mass chaos enveloped the SEC on Saturday, South Carolina was able to steer clear of it all. Of course, that’s the advantage of playing Wofford in Week 13 instead of a truly tough test as a tune-up spot before the Palmetto Bowl against the Clemson Tigers next week. CFP hopes and SEC title hopes have gone by the wayside for the Gamecocks, but the chance at a 10-win season is still alive if Shane Beamer’s team can take down their rivals next week.

No. 15-11

15. Ole Miss Rebels

Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss finally won the big one against Georgia. So what did they do after firmly inserting themselves into the CFP conversation? Naturally, they came off a bye to travel to The Swamp and got clipped by the Florida Gators. Now, the Rebels have virtually no shot at seeing the Playoff and are back to the drawing board after spending so heavily in the portal to build this roster. It’s the epitome of a missed opportunity, especially for a team that looked like a sleeper title contender in their win over the Bulldogs.

14. Arizona State Sun Devils

Let’s show Kenny Dillingham some love, y’all. Arizona State was projected as a bottom-feeder in the Big 12 this season and are now in the driver’s seat to make the conference championship game. They still need to get past rival Arizona next week but the Sun Devils continued their remarkable season with Saturday’s takedown of BYU to really send a statement and, frankly, throw their conference into complete disarray. 

13. Alabama Crimson Tide

Oklahoma had become a punching bag in the SEC. So it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Alabama would be able to best them. Instead, they got bested — and handily. Jalen Milroe played arguably the worst game of his college career and, even with some egregious penalties from the refs, it wouldn’t have mattered. Now, Alabama is on the outside looking in for the Playoff and for the SEC Championship Game.

12. Clemson Tigers

Let’s be real, there was not a whole helluva lot to be learned from Clemson taking on The Citadel in the penultimate game of the regular season for the Tigers. Credit to Clemson nonetheless, though, as they handled business and got out of there with a 51-14 win. The Tigers are in a unique position wherein they don’t control their destiny in the ACC Championship Game race but are still alive if Miami loses as Clemson has already finished conference play.

11. Boise State Broncos

With all due respect to Ashton Jeanty and his undeniable greatness, there’s no chance I’m putting Boise State in the Top 10 after struggling mightily with a bad Wyoming team on Saturday. They pulled out the win, which keeps the Broncos alive for the Mountain West title and the CFP bid for the Group of 5 but it seems like the Boise close calls are starting to pile up in a concerning way. 

No. 10-9

10. SMU Mustangs

Pony up because Rhett Lashlee has SMU bound for the ACC Championship Game officially now (and has a new contract to show for it)! After a bit of a closer game than expected against Boston College last week, the Mustangs left precisely zero doubt in Charlottesville as they toppled Virginia, 33-7. 

Kevin Jennings and SMU’s offense are cooking but, more importantly, this is what we needed to see from the defense to still believe they can take the CFP auto-bid out of the ACC. The Mustangs held an inconsistent but sometimes frisky UVA team to only 173 yards of offense in their house. Perhaps the most impressive part was SMU committing two turnovers and still coming away with the 26-point win. Make no mistake, no one should want to face this team right now. 

9. Indiana Hoosiers

So to state the obvious, Indiana did not pass the biggest (and, if you ask some people, the only) test on its schedule. The Hoosiers’ perfect season ended on Saturday as they went on the road to Columbus and were simply outmatched. Yes, it might not have been as bad if it weren’t for some brutal special teams errors but the offensive line was manhandled for 60 minutes and severely limited what the offense could do, even if the defense played admirably. 

Here’s the thing, though, especially with the chaos around college football in Week 13, I don’t see how you can rightly knock Indiana outside the Top 10 or, if you’re the CFP Selection Committee, out of the 12-team bracket. Yes, the strength of schedule is comparatively soft — but the Hoosiers have treated it as such. They’ve dominated everyone but Ohio State and Michigan on the road. That’s something Penn State or any team in their sphere can’t say. And as chaos breaks, Indiana is a major beneficiary.

No. 8-7

8. Miami Hurricanes

Coming off of the bye and with their last game being the Hurricanes’ first loss of the season to Georgia Tech, it was a big question as to what Miami would look like, even against a struggling Wake Forest team. And the answers there raised some early questions as the Demon Deacs were making this a real game, trailing just 20-14 entering the fourth quarter. But Cam Ward, as he’s done so many times this season, turned it up late to pull away. 

With SMU having punched its ticket to the ACC Championship Game, Miami still needs to win on the road against an erratic Syracuse group next week. Given the injuries in the Canes’ secondary, that matchup looks trickier than it once might’ve but the second-half performance by the defense on Saturday does inspire some confidence for what they can do in that final matchup of the regular season.

7. Tennessee Volunteers

It feels like almost no one mentioned the fact that the Tennessee Volunteers were playing football on Saturday. But that was indeed the case as they geared up for next week’s rivalry matchup with upset-happy Vanderbilt in a tune-up contest against lowly UTEP. And to the credit of Josh Heupel’s team, they absolutely looked like a team taking full advantage of this being such a game. 

The Vols flat-out dominated every phase of the game. Nico Iamaleava threw four touchdowns, the team averaged 6.2 yards per carry and scored four more times on the ground, and the defense held the Miners to 230 total yards while turning them over three times. There’s not much to take away good or bad given the level of competition but Tennessee definitely got a CFP lifeline after the way things played out around them.

No. 6-5

6. Georgia Bulldogs

Had there not been so many hectic results around the country on Saturday, we would probably be talking a lot more about Georgia’s overall lackluster performance in a buy game against UMass. This game was shockingly 7-7 after the first quarter and just 28-14 at halftime as the Bulldogs defense was having trouble stopping the run and not finding a rhythm offensively, which was causing way more anxiety than anyone in Athens expected. 

Ultimately, they pulled away in the second half with three Nate Frazier touchdowns and with Carson Beck ending the day with four scoring throws. However, with rival Georgia Tech’s run game looming in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate next week to keep the Dawgs’ Playoff chances alive, they’ll need to clean some things up before they start hating, clearly. 

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

After what we saw Notre Dame do to Navy earlier this season, there was always a chance that, even with the Army Black Knights entering the game undefeated still and looking better than the rival Midshipmen for much of the season, the Fighting Irish would deploy a similarly dominant effort. And indeed that’s what we saw. 

Marcus Freeman, even with a few miscues that had him unhappy going into the locker room, led the Irish to a dominant 28-7 halftime lead behind Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard and Notre Dame never looked back. There are still some who are questioning the Irish’s viability as a Playoff contender but they’ve kept passing tests with flying colors — and style points, it should be said — since the inexplicable stumble vs. Northern Illinois. With only a downtrodden USC remaining on the schedule, it’s all but a lock we’ll see this team in the postseason. 

No. 4-3

4. Penn State Nittany Lions

Whether you believe the Nittany Lions are deserving of a Top 5 ranking or not, the test in front of them is exceedingly simple: If they could beat Minnesota and Maryland over the final two weeks and they’re all but locked into the Playoff. Of course, they have to win those games and Penn State came dangerously close to not doing that at the Golden Gophers’ house but escaped with a narrow 26-25 win. 

It was just an ugly game for James Franklin’s team going 1-of-11 on third downs, averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and not totally converting on turnovers. Hats off to the head coach for an aggressive call to go for a game-sealing fourth-down conversion (and getting it) late in the fourth quarter but it was absolutely way closer than it should’ve been in this type of moment. But they did, in fact, escape and now only need to beat Maryland at Happy Valley to essentially lock up that CFP spot and, likely, a high seed. 

3. Texas Longhorns

Much like a week ago and this time around against even lesser competition, it felt like the main goal for Steve Sarkisian and the Texas Longhorns had one goal: Get out of dodge and keep the main focus on the regular season finale against rival Texas A&M. It wasn’t the prettiest effort, especially with a Quinn Ewers fumble being returned for a touchdown but Texas passed the test they needed to in a 31-14 win over Kentucky. 

It was honestly more dominant than the final score even showed as Texas out-gained the Wildcats 441-to-232 in total yards for the game. But perhaps the biggest win for the Longhorns was the chaos around them in the Playoff picture. With Indiana and Ole Miss misstepping, it puts Texas in a much more comfortable position to get in even if they don’t beat A&M or don’t win the SEC. Those are still the plans and Texas is capable but they also may not need those things now. 

No. 2-1

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Questions: Answered. The talk all week coming into the Top 5 showdown between Ohio State and Indiana was if the Hoosiers could shock the world. Instead, it was the Buckeyes that made a statement — albeit one without a ton of class from Ryan Day and Will Howard late in the game — with a dominant victory to hand Indiana its first loss of the season. 

It was a great effort, though not a perfect one from OSU. A botched snap on a punt and a 79-yard punt return touchdown set up the Buckeyes pristinely but the offense wasn’t exactly humming for 60 minutes. As has long been the case, though, Jim Knowles’ defense was the start of this one, making life hell for Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers offense. I stand by the fact that, despite the talent on offense, Ohio State’s title hopes rest on that defense. If they play like they did on Saturday in Columbus, they’ll have as good of a shot as anyone. 

1. Oregon Ducks

Unless Michigan can pull off the improbable in the final week of the regular season, Oregon will go down as the only team to beat Ohio State in the regular season. More importantly, unless the equally improbable happens in the Ducks’ own season finale against PNW rival Washington, Dan Lanning’s team will finish as the lone unbeaten squad in the regular season. 

On the heels of a true scare against Wisconsin at Camp Randall last week, Oregon probably needed the extremely late bye to get its head right before facing the Huskies and moving onto the Big Ten Championship Game as they’ve already clinched a spot in the title bout. At their best, though, Oregon still looks the part of the team to beat this season in all of college football. But we’ll see still how a potential rematch with the Buckeyes or anything in the Playoff transpires since the Ducks have shown they’re not always at their best.