Projected AP Top 25 college football rankings after Week 14
It's only fitting that one of the most ludicrous and parity-driven college football seasons in recent memory would have an outsized amount of chaos during rivalry week. And for one final time, the AP Top 25 college football rankings and the College Football Playoff picture have been turned completely on their head.
It all started in the noon window when the Ohio State Buckeyes shocked the world by falling flat for the fourth consecutive year against rival Michigan in The Game. Ryan Day laid an egg again at the worst possible time but he wasn't the only one. Miami and Mario Cristobal followed suit with a stunning loss on the road at Syracuse as well to add to the chaos, putting Clemson in the ACC Championship Game despite the Tigers' own loss to rival South Carolina.
But to cap it all off, the Texas Longhorns shut a lot of doubters up with a dominant win over rival Texas A&M in College Station. While the offense definitely had some issues and some times when the moment looked too big, Steve Sarkisian's team heads to the SEC Championship Game for a rematch with Georgia.
So after all this and much more, let's try out best as we project the AP Top 25 college football rankings, which have closely mirroed the College Football Playoff rankings the whole way, after the final week of the regular season.
Dropped from AP Top 25: Texas A&M Aggies (19)
No. 25-21
25. Tulane Green Wave
Every opportunity was right in front of Jon Sumrall and the Green Wave going into the lone college game played on Thanksgiving. With a spot in the AAC title game already locked up, if Tulane beat Memphis, they’d have an outside shot at usurping the Mountain West for a College Football Playoff berth. Instead, the Green Wave laid an egg and were upset in stunning fashion. Now, even with a win over Army to win the conference, it probably won’t be enough.
24. Syracuse Orange
It feels as if almost no one has used much oxygen on Syracuse outside of Kyle McCord’s interception fest in a loss to Pitt. But how about we celebrate him now after he and the Orange toppled Miami in the season finale on Saturday as the OSU transfer threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns, outdueling Cam Ward. Just like that, ‘Cuse has a 9-3 season and, with teams dropping like flies to finish the year, that should be enough for the Orange to crack the AP Top 25 at the end of the regular season.
23. Army Black Knights
It’s most definitely a longshot at this point but Army still has an outside chance at the CFP after the Black Knights picked up a 29-24 win over UTSA on Saturday. Jeff Monken’s team will play for the AAC title next week and, with the right amount of chaos, a win there could push them into being the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. They’ve done what they needed to in order to get to this point but the job definitely isn’t done for Bryson Daily and Co.
22. Missouri Tigers
I’ve poked plenty of fun at Missouri for still being ranked but credit to the Tigers on Saturday. Eli Drinkwitz’s team was on the snowy ropes in Battle Line against rival Arkansas, trailing 14-7 in the third quarter and 21-20 in the final four minutes. But Brady Cook broke off a game-saving run with 1:53 remaining to pick up the big win. There are no real Playoff or SEC hopes that have been in their grasp for some time but it’s a nice bookend to the year for Mizzou in a year with a lot of disappointment.
21. Colorado Buffaloes
Following the shocking loss to Kansas last week, Colorado ultimately lost control of its own destiny in its Big 12 Championship Game and CFP path. They came into Week 14 needing help from Iowa State and BYU to get into the conference championship tilt. However, the Buffs also needed to win and they left no doubt there, boat-racing Oklahoma State in a 52-0 blowout on Friday. It’s been a remarkable rise for Deion Sanders’ team and they capped the regular season off appropriately.
No. 20-16
20. Illinois Fighting Illini
Coming into the final week of the regular season, Aidan Laughery had just 350 yards and one touchdown for Illinois this year. After beating Northwestern 38-28, the Fighting Illini running back now has 172 more yards and three more touchdowns to his credit. The sophomore spearheaded a big offensive effort on the lake to beat the rival Wildcats and get Illinois to its first nine-win regular season in nearly two decades.
19. UNLV Rebels
UNLV came into rivalry week needing only a win in the Battle for the Fremont Cannon over Nevada to punch its ticket to the Mountain West Championship Game. They earned that running away — quite literally as Barry Odom's Rebels rushed for an absurd 327 yards. While the defense was a bit more generous, particularly against the pass, than you'd have liked, they punched their ticket to the conference title game. Even better, with Tulane's loss, beating Boise State in a rematch likely puts UNLV in the College Football Playoff.
18. Clemson Tigers
Following last week’s chaos, the possibility of Clemson getting an at-large CFP berth was absolutely in the cards. One week later, though, and there’s only one path left for the Tigers. Clemson took its third loss of the season on Saturday and the most painful yet at the hands of rival South Carolina. The good news is that the Tigers are in the ACC Championship Game where a win over SMU gets them in the 12-team field but all the pressure will be on in that contest.
17. BYU Cougars
By early in the second quarter, the BYU Cougars already knew that they wouldn't be playing for the Big 12 Championship Game after Iowa State clipped Kansas State. All BYU controlled was whether it'd be ISU or Colorado facing Arizona State. In any case, though, hats off to the Cougars for finishing strong, scraping out a strong 30-18 win in Provo to cap off this season. It probably feels a bit disappointing given how long they were unbeaten but it's been a helluva run for Kalani Sitake and Co.
16. Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State needed two things on Saturday night for the Cyclones to have a shot at the College Football Playoff by way of a Big 12 title: A win in Farmageddon over rival Kansas State and then a BYU win over Houston. They got the first part done behind a great effort from both Abu Sama and a salty defense that completely shut down the Wildcats potent rushing offense. It was cold, it looked miserable for conditions but they got the job done to keep themselves alive.
No. 15-11
15. Ole Miss Rebels
On the heels of last week’s infuriating loss to Florida that seemingly ended Ole Miss’ chances of making the CFP, the Egg Bowl looked just about exactly like what you’d have expected. The Rebels sleepwalked at the start of the game and fell behind but the talent on that sideline ultimately won out in a 26-14 victory. Perhaps Ole Miss still has a dark-horse shot at the Playoff but it’s hard to see how they earned enough style points to make that case on Friday.
14. Miami Hurricanes
On the road at Syracuse, Miami had every opportunity in front of them. A win, and the Canes were in the ACC Championship Game and potentially in line for an at-large berth win or lose in that game. Instead, the Hurricanes defense couldn’t stop a cold, Mario Cristobal played too conservatively for a field goal late, and Miami took its second loss. Now that Miami is no longer playing for a conference title, their CFP hopes are now officially circling the drain.
13. South Carolina Gamecocks
LaNorris Sellers was Superman in Death Valley. There’s no other way to say it than that after the South Carolina quarterback rushed for 166 yards and two touchdowns to upset rival Clemson and make things interesting. While the Gamecocks have head-to-head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, they also don’t have a bad loss on their resumé. And with all of the chaos in college football, there’s a real chance that they could sneak into the Playoff.
12. Arizona State Sun Devils
Given that Arizona State had the simplest path to the Big 12 Championship Game entering Week 14 with a win-and-in scenario in the Territorial Cup, you have to appreciate what the Sun Devils did. Kenny Dillingham’s team didn’t leave a shred of doubt on the field in Tucson as they wholly dominated Arizona en route to a 49-7 win. Considering that ASU was a popular pick to finish last in the conference this season or close to it, the fact that they finished 10-2 and could win the damn thing is one of the best stories in the sport.
11. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama may have benefitted from the simple fact that they were able to get their chaotic loss out of the way before many others. The Crimson Tide handled business in the Iron Bowl for a 28-14 win and, though they have three losses, no appear to be knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff. There will be a plethora of fans who are unhappy with that outcome but, with how things have broken, specifically in the ACC, the window of opportunity has opened for Kalen DeBoer’s team.
No. 10-9
10. Boise State Broncos
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Ashton Jeanty put the Boise State Broncos on his back and carried his team to victory. Playing Pac-2 champion Oregon State on the blue turf on Friday night, Jeanty was the epitome of a workhorse, rushing 37 times for 226 yards and a touchdown, helping lead the way to the 34-18 victory. As a result, it’s just more par for the course when it comes to this Boise team.
The Broncos’ spot in the Mountain West Championship Game was already secured and they have been the frontrunners to represent the Group of 5 in the CFP all season long. That hasn’t changed and might be even stronger following the Tulane loss. Having said that, Boise has shown some real warts of late in a lot of close games that shouldn’t have been so. That raises some questions heading into conference championship weekend and a rematch with UNLV.
9. Indiana Hoosiers
Even after getting torched by Ohio State last week, Indiana hosted rival Purdue on Saturday for the Old Oaken Bucket with a lot to still play for. With how things broke in the SEC after the Hoosiers’ loss a week ago, a win over the rival Boilermakers would’ve put them in prime position to earn an at-large berth to the College Football Playoff. And, of course, some style points wouldn’t hurt, which Curt Cignetti definitely seemed to realize.
Indiana walloped Purdue and hoisted the beautiful bucket trophy over their heads after notching a 66-0 victory. While Kurtis Rourke threw for six touchdowns and the team rushed for 233 yards on top of that, somehow the defense was the event bigger story, holding the Boilermakers to just 67 total yards (not a typo) and forcing five turnovers. While the OSU game wasn’t pretty, seeing something like this from Indiana makes you believe they could still cause some problems for a team in the CFP.
No. 8-7
8. Ohio State Buckeyes
After completely thumping previously undefeated Indiana a week ago, it felt only fitting that Ohio State would then host rival Michigan in The Game, break the three-year losing streak that Ryan Day has against the Wolverines, and then look to avenge their only loss of the season in the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon. Sherrone Moore and Michigan had some different thoughts.
The Wolverines defense caused Chip Kelly and Will Howard absolute fits throughout Saturday afternoon in Columbus while Davis Warren and Kalel Mullings did just enough, including a clutch run, to knock the Buckeyes out of the conference title bout. It was a stunner and one that severely damages Ohio State’s CFP case. The Buckeyes could now be on the road in the first round and the questions that had seemingly subsided with this team are back with a vengeance.
7. SMU Mustangs
On one hand, SMU didn’t have a ton to play for on Saturday. The Mustangs had already locked up a spot in the ACC Championship Game before the final week of the regular season, thus keeping them in the Playoff race. At the same time, however, even playing a middling team like Cal, a win would conceivably give Rhett Lashlee’s team a shot to even lose the conference championship game and still make the playoff. SMU opted for the latter option.
The Mustangs offense was predictably potent with Kevin Jennings throwing for 225 yards and a touchdown, the run game working well enough but most importantly the defense stifling the Golden Bears. We know Jennings and SMU’s offense are going to light up the scoreboard but can keep doing things like holding Cal to just 254 total yards and only two field goals, this shouldn’t be a team anyone, including Clemson, wants to play.
No. 6-5
6. Tennessee Volunteers
Amid a bevy of rivalry chaos, it looked early on as if Tennessee was going to find itself in a similar boat. Rival Vanderbilt returned the opening kickoff 100 yards and then kept piling it on early to jump out to a 14-0 lead with the Vols on the ropes. They did not, however, stay on the ropes. Josh Heupel calmed his team down and it was all Tennessee from that point on.
The Vols outscored Vandy 36-9 from the 9-minute mark in the first quarter on. Nico Iamaleava had one of his best games yet with 257 yards and four touchdowns through the air while Dylan Sampson reeled off 178 yards on just 25 carries. And the defense, after the inauspicious start, got everything cooking. More importantly, though, the losses within the Top 10 and Tennessee not being in the SEC Championship Game all but assures that this team will be in the 12-team field.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
Even in a rivalry like Clean, Old Fashioned Hate, the majority of the college football-watching country went into Friday night’s rivalry matchup in Athens expecting the Georgia Bulldogs to control the action and roll to a comfortable victory. That couldn’t have been further from what actually happened. Kirby Smart’s Dawgs were down 17-0 at the half, down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but somehow escaped in an eight-overtime thriller with a 44-42 win as they move on into the SEC Championship Game.
Slow starts have been a frustrating theme for the Bulldogs for much of this season. More concerning, however, was the run defense. After allowing UMass to rush for 200+ the week prior, Georgia Tech dominating that facet of the game was a glaring issue. There’s still reason to believe in the overall upside that Georgia offers in the Playoff. Having said that, it’s impossible to ignore the obvious warning signs that are also present at this point.
No. 4-3
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Given what we’ve seen from Notre Dame even this season under Marcus Freeman, the proposition of only needing to win a game that you’re a decent-sized favorite in to get where you want to go was a little unsettling. That’s even more so the case when you consider that it was against rival USC. But the Irish got it done nonetheless, using a monster day on the ground all around and enough opportunistic defensive plays to get the 49-35 win and finish the regular season at 11-1.
With that mark, it’s all but certain that Notre Dame is in the College Football Playoff and may well be the No. 5 seed in the bracket. Having said that, there were some concerns for the postseason in the win. Allowing the Trojans to outgain them 557-436 doesn’t bode well for the highest level of competition coming down the line. Moreover, Riley Leonard continues to be a bit limited as a passer. Even with all that, though, the Irish have more than proven they belong.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State had the luxury of watching Ohio State lose in the noon window on Saturday to Michigan, leaving the Nittany Lions with a simple task at hand playing at home in Happy Valley. If they beat the Maryland Terrapins, they would be going to Indianapolis to face off with the Oregon Ducks for a Big Ten Championship and a top-four seed in the College Football Playoff. And after falling behind 7-0 early, that’s exactly what James Franklin’s team did.
The Nittany Lions scored 44 unanswered (all but three points coming in the final three quarters) as every facet of this team was humming. Penn State’s defense held the Terps to under 200 yards of offense and forced three interceptions while rushing for 219 yards as a team and just manhandling. Now the question will, once again, be if Franklin can win the big one with the conference title on the line.
No. 2-1
2. Texas Longhorns
So much was said about Texas not having beaten anyone this season and their one marquee game resulting in a blowout loss to Georgia. That was so much so the case that the narrative started that the Longhorns could be left out of the College Football Playoff entirely with a loss either in the SEC Championship Game or in the season finale against Texas A&M. That no longer seems like the case after how they dominated A&M.
Sure, Quinn Ewers and the offense had plenty of miscues that made it hairier than it should've been by a wide margin. But the calling card has long been this Texas defense and they were completely nails against the Aggies offense, keeping Marcel Reed and Co. out of the end zone as A&M's only points came on a pick-six. Now, Texas gets its rematch with Georgia but, more importantly, might now be a lock for the CFP.
1. Oregon Ducks
It was hard to not be curious as to what Oregon would look like on Saturday night in Eugene off of their final bye. After all, the last time we saw the Ducks take the field, it was in Camp Randall and Dan Lanning’s team came stunningly close to suffering its first loss of the season but ultimately eked out a 16-13 win. So as they faced rival Washington, a program Lanning has not beaten since taking over, we all wanted to see what the bounce back would be — or if there would even be one.
There was indeed a bounce back and Oregon made a bit of a statement. It was 7-6 in their favor early in the second quarter but the Ducks never looked back from there. Behind a big two-touchdown night from Jordan James and the defense stonewalling the Huskies by limiting them to under 200 yards of offense, the Ducks ran away to a decisive win that has them looking like they might run away with the Big Ten title in Indianapolis next week.