College football rankings, Regrading preseason AP Top 25: It was always Ohio State
By John Buhler
The Ohio State Buckeyes did it! Against all odds, they went out and proved all of their doubters wrong by being crowned College Football Playoff National Champions for the second time ever. It is only fitting that the first-ever playoff champion in the antiquated four-team model became the first team to win this updated 12-team model. At the end of the day, Ohio State had more dudes than everyone.
By beating the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 34-23 on a frigid Atlanta night, Ohio State has the right to tell everyone in the country they have the best football team. This was a team that needed a swift kick in the rear end by arch rival Michigan to light the fire inside them we all knew was there all along. Of course, they were not ranked No. 1 to start the season by the Associated Press. No. 2 works for them!
For those who do not remember, here is what the preseason AP Top 25 Poll was to start the season.
- Georgia Bulldogs (1,532, 46 first-place votes)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (1,490, 15 first-place votes)
- Oregon Ducks (1,403, 1 first-place vote)
- Texas Longhorns (1,386)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (1,260)
- Ole Miss Rebels (1189)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1,122)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (1,060)
- Michigan Wolverines (955)
- Florida State Seminoles (971)
- Missouri Tigers (927)
- Utah Utes (887)
- LSU Tigers (804)
- Clemson Tigers (689)
- Tennessee Volunteers (629)
- Oklahoma Sooners (566)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys (538)
- Kansas State Wildcats (526)
- Miami Hurricanes (492)
- Texas A&M Aggies (292)
- Arizona Wildcats (237)
- Kansas Jayhawks (231)
- USC Trojans (172)
- North Carolina State Wolfpack (171)
- Iowa Hawkeyes (140)
Here is every team that got at least one vote in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll ahead of this past year.
- Louisville Cardinals (111)
- Virginia Tech Hokies (77)
- Boise State Broncos (47)
- SMU Mustangs (33)
- Iowa State Cyclones (33)
- Liberty Flames (32)
- Washington Huskies (23)
- West Virginia Mountaineers (17)
- Memphis Tigers (16)
- Nebraska Cornhuskers (16)
- Wisconsin Badgers (15)
- UTSA Roadrunners (6)
- Tulane Green Wave (5)
- Appalachian State Mountaineers (4)
- Kentucky Wildcats (3)
- Auburn Tigers (2)
- Colorado Buffaloes (1)
I will now break down every team that was ranked inside of the top 25 and those who got votes.
College Football Rankings: Regrading the preseason AP Top 25 Poll
I am going to do this by clusters, starting with the teams initially ranked No. 1-5, all the way down to No. 21-25 before I get to those who received votes, and teams who probably should have. When it comes to the original top five of Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas and Alabama, I have no gripes with the top four, all things considered, although we overvalued Alabama by quite a bit this season.
Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas all made the College Football Playoff. The Dawgs and Ducks won their respective leagues, while the Buckeyes and Longhorns won multiple playoff games as non-conference winners. These were the four surest locks to make the playoff. While Georgia and Oregon did not look the part in the playoff, they deserved to be there nonetheless. This was a fair prediction.
Alabama was ranked No. 11 in the final playoff rankings, but seeded just outside the field at No. 13. We overlooked the head-coaching change quite a bit. Kalen DeBoer is a great head coach, but he is a downgrade from the greatest of all time in Nick Saban. This is the only team that was ranked inside of the initial top five that did not earn its ranking. How many playoff teams did the AP actually get right?
The AP Poll would have gotten seven of the 12 teams right (Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame, Penn State and Boise State). It had Florida State, Utah, Alabama, Ole Miss and Michigan in over Arizona State, Clemson, Tennessee, Indiana and SMU. The AP was not that far off on Clemson or Tennessee. Nobody saw Arizona State and Indiana coming. SMU was rising. Florida State was awful!
I got seven of the 12 teams right as well with Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame, Penn State and Tennessee. I picked Miami, Utah, Kansas State, LSU and Liberty over Clemson, Arizona State, Indiana, SMU and Boise State. If you did any worse than getting half of the field right, I feel sorry for you. If you did better than the Associated Press and I at seven, then congratulations are in order.
At No. 6-10, Notre Dame and Penn State at No. 7 and No. 8 are certainly fair. Ole Miss was slightly overvalued at No. 6, but the Rebels were a top 20 team throughout. The Michigan love at No. 9 was a bit heavy-handed. Nobody thought they could throw the football. That was a bad miss. Florida State went 2-10 as a complete disaster. I still had them ranked, but being inside the top 10 was so baffling.
Moving on to No. 11-15, No. 14 Clemson was the most accurate. The Tigers won the ACC, but were ranked No. 16 with a 9-3 record. Missouri was overvalued at No. 11, as this was barely a top-25 team. We grossly overvalued LSU at No. 13. What were we thinking? Tennessee was undervalued at No. 15, as they were the No. 9 seed. I was a fool to drink all the red Utah kool-aid. Now I have a stomach ache.
Looking at No. 16-20, there is a lot of wrong here. No. 19 Miami was slightly better than this. No. 20 Texas A&M was a touch worse. No. 18 Kansas State was a bit worse than Texas A&M. As for the Oklahoma schools ranked No. 16 and No. 17, Oklahoma was a disaster and Oklahoma State did not win a single conference game. The Associated Press picked the helmet over the teams with them.
As for the last five teams that were ranked to start the season, most of them stunk. No. 25 Iowa was kind of sort of okay, but No. 21 Arizona and No. 22 Kansas did not go bowling. No. 23 USC and No. 24 North Carolina State barely did. These were teams we all were not so sure about, but for various reasons we gave them way too much love to start the season. Iowa being No. 25 does feel justifiable.
Looking at who else received votes, the AP should get credit for being in on teams like Boise State, SMU, and Iowa State the most. There were some voters who saw good things coming with Louisville, Memphis, Tulane and Colorado. Virginia Tech was a massive disappointment. So was Liberty and Wisconsin. If you gave a vote away to Appalachian State, Auburn or Kentucky, what a huge whiff!
As far as teams who did not get any love from the AP that should have, let's start with Arizona State and Indiana making the playoff without receiving a single preseason vote. The AP clearly slept on teams like South Carolina, BYU, Army, Illinois, Syracuse and UNLV as well. We cannot get it all right, but we have to trust the AP voters to get it mostly right because they are our first guiding light here.
Overall, I think the Associated Press should get good marks for the teams it had inside the top five. That was where they shined the most. However, with each subsequent cluster of five, it just got worse and worse and worse and worse, enough to the point where they were merely throwing darts at a board blindfolded when rounding out the top 25. I guess that shows the biggest fault in the AP Poll.
Ultimately, the cream does rise to the top in these sort of polls. I understand that it is hard to overcome preseason biases, but it always seems to shape the AP Top 25 to start, year in and year out. While there were a few teams outside of the top 10 I liked them getting sort of right (Clemson, Texas A&M, Miami and Iowa, I guess), there was simply not enough courage to remotely get this right.
I will give the Associated Press a passing grade for getting the big things right, but that is about it.