Eventually, water will find its level. We are in the heart of the offseason in major college football. We are still six months out from toe meeting leather in a game that counts. While spring practice is just around the corner, we need to find new and creative ways to keep ourselves entertained. In the wake of ESPN's Bill Connelly releasing his returning production findings, he has given us his SP+ rankings.
Before diving into all 136 FBS teams, which now includes Delaware and Missouri State, he outlined what all goes into his formulaic rankings. For those not in the know, the primary factors Connelly uses are returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. Connelly then wrote that he will update his SP+ rankings in May after spring practice and then again in August just ahead of the regular season.
This is all about identifying a starting point for us to build off heading into the season before we eventually crown another College Football Playoff national champion. While stats really do not do much for me, I can get behind Connelly's logic here because recruiting is the lifeblood of college football. Without it, you have to be keen on development or be a fantastic transfer portal gambler.
Here are five teams from Connelly's initial list he is way too high on five others he is way too low on.
No. 12 is way too high for the Texas A&M Aggies
I understand why people buy into Texas A&M every offseason. Money is not an issue when it comes to resources, NIL and whatnot. Texas A&M recruits very well and seems to be trending up under second-year head coach Mike Elko. They may have a passionate and rabid fanbase, but there is a reason why this team always seems to disappoint. When I think of an SEC that goes 8-4, it is A&M.
From an upside standpoint, I can get behind No. 12 being this team's ceiling. That could indicate if all goes according to plan in College Station that the Aggies could might maybe think about pushing for a playoff spot. This team has had essentially two excellent seasons since joining the SEC in 2012. I think this team can win around nine games next season, but their recent history has me so skeptical.
Texas A&M should be about eight to 10 spots lower in these rankings, based on its volatile nature.
No. 22 is way too low for the Louisville Cardinals
There are a few teams in the Power Four that I think I might be getting dangerously high on. The team that fits the bill for me in the ACC would have to be the Louisville Cardinals. Jeff Brohm is a fantastic head coach. He will continue to do great things leading his alma mater. Bringing in Miller Moss at quarterback by way of the transfer portal could help the Cardinals' offense be even more explosive.
For U of L to be ranked No. 22 does not sit well with me. This is a team I view as Clemson's most worthy adversary in the ACC this year. Yes, the Cardinals need to learn how to play some defense yesterday, but I have grandiose expectations for the Cardinals in year three under Brohm's watch. This could be the first season Louisville qualifies for the College Football Playoff in program history.
I would have Louisville four to seven spots higher than this, as the Cardinals belong in the teens.
No. 20 is way too high for the Oklahoma Sooners
Who cares about returning production? Have you seen how poorly the Oklahoma Sooners have regularly been under Brent Venables? I understand that Joe Castiglione is paying him a lot of money, but Oklahoma's great financial resources could be put to better use. While I respect the fact that Oklahoma is returning a great deal of production, this team has often struggled to be a bowl team.
With Oklahoma entering year two of playing in the SEC, I am concerned that the Sooners are on the verge of becoming the next Nebraska. They were the best program historically in the Big 12 and willingly gave that up to be essentially a southwestern version of Auburn. Oklahoma may win around eight games next year with John Mateer at quarterback, but this has no business being in the top 25.
I have been wrong on teams before, but nothing I have seen out of Oklahoma of late has me in on OU.
No. 16 is way too low for the South Carolina Gamecocks
I might be picking nits here, but there were few teams down the stretch that I liked more than last year's South Carolina Gamecocks. LaNorris Sellers could be the next Cam Newton. When Shane Beamer has a team he likes, he gets cocky like his nickname. I cannot wait for The Palmetto Bowl in late November. I expect Clemson and South Carolina to both make the College Football Playoff.
When I look at South Carolina at this point of the offseason, they could be as high as the eighth-best team in college football, but probably no lower than the 15th. So why are they coming in at No. 16? This feels a bit egregious because I know how great of a talent evaluator Beamer and his staff are. This team may not overachieve like it did a season ago, but I would be foolish to downgrade them.
If South Carolina was in the top 12, I would be much happier with where the Gamecocks landed.
No. 15 is way too high for Missouri Tigers
No team in college football frustrated me more last season than the Missouri Tigers. This was a team that would have made the expanded College Football Playoff in 2023 and probably would have won a first-round game. Instead, the offense regressed massively with Brady Cook under center and with Luther Burden III as really his only offensive weapon. It is a critical year Eliah Drinkwitz as head coach.
Missouri does not recruit well enough for my taste. While the Tigers always seem to have a pass rush, they often pop in and out of the top 25 based on how the offense looks. I may like the upside with Beau Pribula coming over from Penn State in the transfer portal, but I cannot get last year's paper Tigers out of my head. I do not like seeing them inside the top 25 at all. This team is so overvalued.
This team should be no higher than No. 25, but I can understand how they can sneak up on people.
No. 7 is way too low for the Texas Longhorns
Ask yourself this. How many teams could you realistically rank ahead of the Texas Longhorns to start next season? Ohio State, maybe Penn State. That is two, so what on god's green earth are we doing with the Longhorns sitting at No. 7?! I could see them being ranked as such at regular season's end if they were to lose to Georgia twice again for the second season in a row, but look at this team, bruh!
This is more about Steve Sarkisian than it is about Arch Manning. While Manning still needs to prove to me he is more than just a run-first quarterback, Sarkisian is the best head coach in the country who has yet to win a College Football Playoff. It may not happen this season, but I would be shocked if he left Austin before winning one. The pressure is on him and Manning to get it done before 2027...
If you are down on Texas, then put the Longhorns at No. 4. Otherwise, they belong in the top three.
No. 2 is way too high for the Alabama Crimson Tide
There must be some misunderstanding. There must be some kind of mistake! I do not know what the genesis is of Alabama being ranked at No. 2, but make it stop! The only logical explanation here is recent history must be so in their favor because Nick Saban was their coach only two years ago. Kalen DeBoer is a proven commodity at head coach, but he has only been so-so leading Alabama.
Who is this team's starting quarterback? It should be Julian Sayin, but here we are... If Jalen Milroe returned and was playing in Ryan Grubb's offense, I would have no problem with Alabama being situated inside the top five. Right now, I have them as a borderline playoff team, one that is likely destined to go 9-3 again and find itself inside the last four out. No. 2 is mind-blowing high for them.
I can live in a world where Alabama is a top-10 team, mostly because it feels like we are all about to...
No. 11 is way too low for the Clemson Tigers
Let's be honest. Alabama and Clemson need to switch spots. While Clemson may be a tad too high at No. 2, I am more okay with that than Alabama occupying that seat. Clemson may not have recruited on as elite of a level as Alabama in recent years, but I see one program trending up and another trending down. If Clemson does not make it back to the playoff next year, then fire everyone involved.
The gap between Dabo Swinney's team and the second best team in the ACC, which I think might be Louisville, is wider than any others existing in the Power Four. Clemson is firmly among a group of eight teams that can realistically win the College Football Playoff. I would argue they should be among the four most likely to do it. Seeing them come in at No. 11 is a slap in the face to what this team is.
Clemson not only needs to be in the top 10, but the Tigers probably need to be inside the top five.
No. 9 is way too high for the Ole Miss Rebels
While I would not go as far as to say Ole Miss was last year's biggest disappointment, the Rebels really missed out on a golden opportunity. Everything was in their favor to make the College Football Playoff for the first time ever. Jaxson Dart was back for one more season. Walter Nolen transferred in from Texas A&M. Yes, you lost Quinshon Judkins in the portal, but you got Georgia at home, and won!
Although it feels rather difficult to leave Ole Miss out of the top 25, they are more likely to be on the cutting room floor than firmly inside the top 15. While I like Austin Simmons' upside at quarterback, Lane Kiffin needs to level up as a head coach for me to take his program even more seriously. The expanded playoff benefits teams like Ole Miss more than most, but can they not take advantage?
Ole Miss should be no higher than the late teens in this exercise, but probably closer to the low 20s.
No. 25 is way too low for the Illinois Fighting Illini
I understand that Illinois does not recruit at an elite level historically, nor have the Fighting Illini done a ton of winning in recent years, but last year was all I needed to see to be all-in on this year's team. Illinois is my pick to replace Indiana inside the top four of the Big Ten. That might be enough to make the College Football Playoff as an at-large team. At the very least, they will be a first four team out.
This is all about how good of a head coach Bret Bielema is. Getting Luke Altmyer back at quarterback for one more season is undeniably massive. The Big Ten has a few juggernauts at the top of the league, but an incredibly soft middle that a well-coached and senior-laden team like Illinois can exploit. I am not as dangerously high on the Illini as I am on Louisville in the ACC, but they are my pick in the Big Ten.
Illinois should be somewhere in the No. 20 to No. 16 range in the exercise, if I were to have done it.