College football rankings: The top five national championship contenders we believe in

This college football season has been defined by one word: chaos. Upsets turn the College Football Playoff rankings on their head seemingly every week. You need an advance degree in mathematics to figure out which teams might reach the SEC Championship Game. Arizona State and South Carolina might be the hottest teams in the country. Indiana is undefeated and ranked in the top five, for goodness sakes.

Amid all that topsy-turvy uncertainty, it can be awfully hard to figure out which teams are really, truly for real when it comes to the national championship. Conference realignment means that a team's schedule tells us less about its quality than ever. Just when it seems like someone has announced itself as a contender, they lay an egg the very next week. (We're looking at you, Georgia.)

Luckily, we're here to help cut through the fog. Of the 25 teams currently ranked in the AP poll, which five do we feel best about as national title contenders? Let's break it down.

AP Top 25 rankings after Week 12

First, a look at where things stand in this week's poll. The top five remains unchanged, while both BYU and Tennessee took a tumble following losses on Saturday.

1. Oregon Ducks
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Texas Longhorns
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Indiana Hoosiers
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
7. Alabama Crimson Tide
8. Georgia Bulldogs
9. Ole Miss Rebels
10. Tennessee Volunteers
11. Miami Hurricanes
12. Boise State Broncos
13. BYU Cougars
14. SMU Mustangs
15. Texas A&M Aggies
16. Colorado Buffaloes
17. Clemson Tigers
18. Army Black Knights
19. South Carolina Gamecocks
20. Tulane Green Wave
21. Arizona State Sun Devils
22. Iowa State Cyclones
23. UNLV Rebels
24. Illinois Fighting Illini
25. Washington State Cougars

There are precious few sure things in the list above. So who do we have the most faith in as the season reaches its stretch run? First, let's start with a few who didn't make our top five.

Honorable Mentions: Why Alabama, Tennessee, Notre Dame miss the cut

That sound you hear is hollering all the way from Tuscaloosa and South Bend. But hear us out: Why, exactly, should we feel differently about Alabama than we did after the Tide put up an ugly loss against Knoxville in Tennessee last month? In the weeks since, Bama has played 1) a Missouri team actively leaking oil, 2) an LSU team that can't defend a mobile quarterback to save its life and is in active revolt against its head coach and 3) Mercer.

To be clear, Jalen Milroe and this offense can still go boom with the best of them, and on the right day, the Tide can make anybody look bad. But all the questions we had about Milroe's consistency and this defense's ceiling following losses to Tennessee and Vanderbilt still apply, and until Alabama puts up a complete performance against a team in its weight class, I reserve the right to treat the Tide with skepticism.

As for Tennessee and Notre Dame, the answer is far simpler: I just do not trust either of these offenses right now, and more specifically either of these QBs. Nico Iamaleava continues to fall flat against top competition, and for as good as the Vols defense is, we saw against Georgia just how hard it is to ask them to stand on their heads for 60 minutes; eventually, the dam is going to break, and the passing offense seems no closer to connecting than it has all year. The Irish, meanwhile, have been rolling recently, but they've done it against thoroughly mediocre competition. The last time we saw Riley Leonard really, truly have to throw the ball to win a game, things looked very ugly against Texas A&M and Northern Illinois. Maybe Leonard and this offense really have turned a corner, but I have my doubts until I see them do it against a team they can't just physically manhandle.

5. Ole Miss Rebels

I know, I know; I feel as itchy about trusting Ole Miss football as the next person. But the questions we had about this team — specifically, how they would hold up in the trenches after years of getting pushed around — were largely answered in that emphatic win over Georgia a couple weekends ago. Jaxson Dart is a wild card for better and often for worse, and this team is still liable to throw up a clunker you don't see coming. But when Dart has his head on straight, and this team is avoiding silly mistakes, they can physically match up with just about anybody.

The reality is that this is as wide-open a season as we've seen in college football for a long time, arguably since 2007. Somebody had to occupy the fifth spot on this list, and Ole Miss has shown me more recently than the Tide or the Irish.

4. Texas Longhorns

Perhaps this feels a little bit low for a team that's largely cruised through this season. But are we sure we feel good about where Texas is at right now, especially on offense? Steve Sarkisian's team cannot run the ball consistently — outside of a 28-yard run from Jaydon Blue, the Horns ran it 40 times for just 111 yards on Saturday against a mediocre Arkansas defense — and Quinn Ewers is so scattershot that fans are openly wondering if he's fully healthy and calling for backup Arch Manning to take over.

Don't get me wrong, Texas is a very solid team, and they're more trustworthy than just about anyone else in the SEC right now. But the one time they faced a team that was on their level physically, Georgia pushed them around in their own stadium. I'm worried that this defense is a paper tiger, and that the offense doesn't have the horses to keep up if need be, which is why they find themselves outside of the top three.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes

Speaking of teams that might be a paper tiger! On the surface, everything seems A-OK in Columbus; the Buckeyes arguably should've beaten Oregon in Eugene, snuffed out Penn State in Happy Valley and have coasted through the rest of their schedule. And yet, it's still really, really hard to get past Ryan Day failures out of my head. The silly mistakes and poor game management late in games, the lack of physicality along both lines of scrimmage — Ohio State is as skilled as any team in the country, but that skill doesn't necessarily translate into winning games against other elite teams.

Maybe this is all overblown. Ohio State was an offensive pass interference call from being undefeated with two top-five road wins, after all. But it's also true that the Buckeyes haven't physically overwhelmed teams that they probably should, and the secondary got torched by Dillon Gabriel and Co. It all just feels a little bit more rickety than you'd like it to, especially when you think about a matchup against the two teams ahead of them on this list.

2. Georgia Bulldogs

Is this maybe inflating Kirby Smart's team beyond what they've actually proven on the field this year? Perhaps. But when they're on, they absolutely bully people; by the end of games against Texas and Tennessee, the Horns and Vols were ready to quit. There are still question marks about Carson Beck and this offense, and just how badly they miss the bailout option that was Brock Bowers last season. If Georgia gets on its back foot, it remains to be seen whether Beck can help the Dawgs keep pace or get them back into a game.

But man, if this offensive line is finally getting healthy (and they sure looked it in the second half against Tennessee), they might be able to just manhandle their way to a title. There might not be a bigger delta between any team's floor and ceiling.

1. Oregon Ducks

While the rest of the college football world burns around them, there are the Ducks, floating calmly above the fray. It never seriously felt like Wisconsin was going to seal the upset in Madison last weekend, and sure enough, Dillon Gabriel made the plays he needed to make, despite missing his top target in injured wideout Tez Johnson.

Oregon might not have the highest ceiling in the country, but they are absolutely the safest bet. Since figuring out its offensive line early on, the Ducks have cooked just about every defense they've faced, and Dan Lanning's bold game management gives them an extra edge when things get tight. Questions remain, particularly about this defense in the trenches. But you know exactly what you're getting from Oregon every time out, and what you're getting has been good enough to go 11-0 so far.