Red Flags: 5 college football teams on upset alert in Week 11

We're in the final month of the 2024 college football season, the first College Football Playoff rankings have been released, and it's the home stretch. But don't worry because that only means we're turning the chaos up to 11, fitting as we go into Week 11, and there are just going to be even more teams on upset alert over the final four weeks before we get into conference championship weekend.

It's a fascinating Week 11 slate with some titanic SEC matchups between ranked foes but also several unbeaten teams facing tricky matches or even trap games where an upset is in the cards. One unbeaten in a big matchup we aren't including in our college football upset picks, though? The Indiana Hoosiers. Coach Cig's team takes on Michigan in Week 11 but, frankly, I'm just not doubting Indiana against a team they're clearly better than, especially in Bloomington.

Shouts to Clemson in Blacksburg, Iowa State at Kansas, and even Colorado for staying off upset alert. But that still leaves us a pair of SEC contenders and three more undefeated teams for Week 11 college football upset picks.

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2024 Upset Picks Record: 14-31

5. Army Black Knights

Opponent: at North Texas | Time: Saturday, Nov. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: ARMY -4.5

Army remained undefeated last week despite the surprise absence of star quarterback Bryson Daily, though perhaps that says a lot more about Air Force than it does about the Black Knights without their dark-horse Heisman Trophy contender in the fold. And now that Daily's availability for their Week 11 clash with North Texas is in question too, that puts the undefeated service academy in real trouble.

If Daily does play, this could look silly. North Texas' defense is, to put it kindly, putrid and, even running the triple-option, the Black Knights would absolutely hang a big number on them. Even against another poor defense in Air Force, Dewayne Coleman simply couldn't move the ball as well as Daily can in this offense.

On the flip side of that, however, the one thing the Mean Green are capable of is scoring. While Army's defense has been a force in its own right, North Texas should be able to come in and find their spots to put points on the board. Even with Daily, this could be a shootout, but without him, Jeff Monken's team will find itself in real danger of taking their first loss of the season.

4. BYU Cougars

Opponent: at Utah | Time: Saturday, Nov. 9, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: BYU -3.5

BYU fans, I once again apologize for the oversight of leaving the Cougars out of the initial AP Top 25 projections on Saturday night. And I know this sounds rich while I'm putting the team on upset alert, which surely won't make this tremendous fanbase any happier with me. But when it's the Holy War, we all know that anything can happen.

The best-named rivalry in college football and one of the most fun as well is back after being on hiatus since 2021 and we're heading to Rice-Eccles Stadium for what is now a conference matchup. And rest assured, I think BYU is by far the better team in this game. I had my doubts about Utah going into the season with Cam Rising and, well, that's even easier to see when the veteran quarterback isn't helming the offense.

But again, all bets are off in the Holy War, especially with BYU having to go on the road for this matchup. Sure, Provo is a short drive from Salt Lake City but the change in atmosphere makes it feel miles more different. I honestly don't have a football reason why the Cougars don't win this game but I'd feel wrong for not mentioning it given the nature of this rivalry.

3. Georgia Bulldogs

Opponent: at 16 Ole Miss | Time: Saturday, Nov. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: UGA -2.5

Perhaps more so than people might realize, this is a massive spot for the Georgia Bulldogs. Particularly as their season-opening win over Clemson looks worse after the Tigers lost to Louisville and could turn back into a pumpkin, the only truly high-quality win on Kirby Smart's resumé this season is over Texas. Granted, that's a big win but if you then factor in a loss to Alabama and now to Ole Miss, it starts to look worse.

Lane Kiffin's Rebels hanging 63 points on Arkansas last week is certainly fresh on people's minds coming into this game but I'm actually more tuned in on these defenses. Put simply, I don't see Ole Miss even being able to see the 60-point mark on the horizon in this game, especially if the Georgia defense plays to its ceiling like it did against Texas. On the flip side, though, Carson Beck has been turnover prone and Ole Miss has the right combo up front to put pressure on him.

Ultimately, I do think Georgia is the better team in this game and should come out victorious. Having said that, if Beck's turnover woes continue and the defense doesn't play up to its potential — which has been the case at times this season — this game being in Oxford could get hairy in a hurry for the Dawgs. An upset is probably more in play than anyone in Athens would actually care to admit.

2. Miami Hurricanes

Opponent: at Georgia Tech | Time: Saturday, Nov. 9, Noon ET (ESPN) | Spread: MIA -10.5

No, I don't think Mario Cristobal is going to stubbornly and foolishly not take a knee at the end of this one for Miami to lose to Georgia Tech for the second straight year. Will that game be on the Hurricanes head coach's mind, though? You can take that to the bank and, frankly, what we learned in that game last year is that Georgia Tech can be the right team to muck it up against The U, even in a talent disadvantage.

The big question in this matchup is the status of Yellow Jackets starting quarterback Hayes King, who has now been out for several weeks. My gut based on Brent Key's comments through the week is that he's going to play, which should put a scare into Miami a bit. With King, Georgia Tech has a unique and grinding offense that can put a Hurricanes defense I still don't fully trust (how could you trust a unit that gave up 31 points to Duke?) on its heels in this one.

If that does happen, then Miami will need Cam Ward to play Superman for the umpteenth time this season. He's already proven he's capable of doing exactly that, but are we absolutely sure there won't be a time where he comes up short? I'm still not entirely convinced of that and, with Miami on the road in this one, it's not hard for me to see Cristobal and Co. sweating this one out or even realistically getting upset in Atlanta.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Opponent: at 15 LSU | Time: Saturday, Nov. 9, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: ALA -2.5

Here we are again. Full disclosure, just about every time the Alabama vs. LSU matchup is on the schedule, the favorite is going to get put on upset alert. That's just how it is when these two SEC powers collide annually and this year might be the best case for it. These are two extremely good teams but also teams with clear flaws, and Alabama being a road favorite is enough to easily put the upset in the realm of possibility.

Beyond just Death Valley being a tough place to play, the Alabama defense, specifically the secondary, still has me concerned. And when you look at their two losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, both also coming on the road, their secondary played their worst games of the season. Now they match up with LSU in Baton Rouge against the best wide receiver and quarterback they've seen this season. That's certainly not favorable.

To be sure, Jalen Milroe could have a big day against this LSU defense and we could be turning back the clock to a classic Alabama-LSU shootout. But in that type of game, Death Valley could definitely play a factor. With the advantages that Brian Kelly's team has in this one, they are very much live to upset the Crimson Tide and send Bama packing from the CFP.