Red Flags: 5 college football teams on upset alert in Week 8

It feels like we've reached the point in the 2024 college football season when upsets are only going to be more abundant. Part of that, naturally, is due to conference realignment and the monster matchups we have on the slate throughout the year. But another part of that is that these teams are going to be getting tested while simultaneously getting worn down by said schedule. That's what upsets can be built on.

There weren't many shockers last week outside of Utah falling on Friday night to Arizona State, but we did see Oregon as a home underdog knock off Ohio State while LSU came back as a home dog themselves to upset Ole Miss. However, teams like Penn State and Kansas State were able to stave off even more upsets. I'm not so sure we'll see that when it comes to the minefield of Week 8 when the red flags are whipping furiously around college football.

We try to limit ourselves to five upsets every week and this was the toughest to do that for yet. We're leaving teams like Michigan facing Illinois, Notre Dame on the road at Georgia Tech, or even Army facing a sneaky dangerous East Carolina team on the cutting room floor, despite there being a real possibility of the ranked team falling in each of those matchups. But that's all the more reason to dial in for our Week 8 college football upset picks, the five we actually chose as the likeliest upsets of the week.

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2024 Upset Picks Record: 11-19

5. Miami Hurricanes

Opponent: at Louisville | Time: Saturday, Oct. 19, Noon ET (ABC) | Spread: MIA -4.5

One could make the argument pretty damn easily that the Miami Hurricanes are egregiously lucky to still be undefeated entering Week 8 and coming off the bye. After all, Mario Cristobal's team narrowly escaped Virginia Tech then needed some late heroics (and a little help from the men in stripes) to get out of Berkley without a loss to Cal. So it stands to reason why the Canes going to Louisville is now a clearly tough spot for this group.

The Cardinals might be a two-loss team with a defined ceiling but, at the same time, this team has been in every game they've played so far this season. Their first loss was by just one touchdown at Notre Dame before they also narrowly lost at home to SMU. Tyler Shough has been good-not-great under Jeff Brohm as the newcomer and this team is well-coached with a ton of fight.

For the escape artist heroics that Miami has been able to pull off, they also haven't had a game wherein Cristobal's trademark coaching mistakes have really bitten them. Matched up with Brohm on the sidelines in a game that should be close in a tough environment, this feels like a spot it could happen and a Hurricanes loss would certainly turn the ACC on its head.

4. Indiana Hoosiers

Opponent: Nebraska | Time: Saturday, Oct. 19, Noon ET (FOX) | Spread: IND -6.5

Let's be clear, all of the numbers say that the Indiana Hoosiers should be able to secure a win on Saturday afternoon in Bloomington. Curt Cignetti in year one has this team playing at an extremely high level, ranking as one of the top-quarter defenses in the country and the best offense in the country in terms of Success Rate. While Nebraska is no slouch, they don't match up with that for Indiana.

Here's the thing: The one thing we don't know about the Hoosiers is exactly how real what we've seen from them to this point actually is. Indiana has played one of the softer Power 4 schedules in the country to this point with arguably their best win being a 42-28 triumph over Maryland in Bloomington. Nebraska is a different caliber of team behind all-world freshman Dylan Raiola and a stout, physical defense.

Indiana presents an equally tricky (and perhaps most formidable) matchup for Nebraska, it should be said, as the Huskers schedule hasn't been one to write home about either. When you have so many unknown commodities at play in a game like this, though, an upset unquestionably has to be on the table.

3. LSU Tigers

Opponent: at Arkansas | Time: Saturday, Oct. 19, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: LSU -2.5

Based on what we've largely seen from Brian Kelly's teams in Baton Rouge, would it not be particularly on-brand for LSU to follow up their dramatic and gutsy win over Ole Miss last week by now going on the road this week into the Battle for the Boot in Fayetteville and fall to an Arkansas team that has already been a giant-killer in the SEC once this season? The oddsmakers clearly agree based on where this line has been and stayed throughout the week.

The Tigers defense tightened up for a great performance late against the Rebels but this is still a unit that I have my doubts about. That type of defense now having to match up with Razorbacks OC Bobby Petrino and what he can throw at them is a tricky spot, especially when coming down from the high of last week. And let's not forget that Arkansas DC Travis Williams has emerged as a rising star among assistants with how well he's been able to slow down opponents this year.

How healthy Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is for this matchup is definitely a huge factor because, if he's compromised, then I'm far less enthused about the Hogs' chances on Saturday. Just based on the spot on the schedule, the rivalry, and what Arkansas has done at their best this season, however, it's completely fair to say that LSU could find itself in some major trouble.

2. Texas Longhorns

Opponent: 5 Georgia | Time: Saturday, Oct. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: TEX -4.5

Outside of Oregon, no team has separated themselves from the rest of college football like the Texas Longhorns. Not only do they enter Week 8 undefeated and ranked No. 1 but they've passed every test with aplomb to this point, including beating the brakes off of both Michigan and Oklahoma away from Austin. Georgia, meanwhile, almost came back against Alabama but ultimately lost but the Dawgs have also flirted with disaster against Kentucky and let Mississippi State hang around a bit longer than anticipated.

The one thing that does stick out with Texas, however, is that even their signature wins are easy to poke holes against, particularly with the Longhorns defense. While I believe Pete Kwiatkowski is an elite defensive coordinator and the talent replenished after losses, you could argue that Georgia will offer by far the most daunting test that this unit will have seen this season.

For me, I believe Texas will get the victory in this matchup as they are the better team with the more proven big-time quarterback in Quinn Ewers as oppose to Carson Beck. Even still, sleeping on Georgia is not often a profitable endeavor and, with how chaotic the SEC could get down the stretch, an upset is both in play here and also something that many might consider likely, even if just on vibes alone.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Opponent: at 11 Tennessee | Time: Saturday, Oct. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: BAMA -3.5

The Third Saturday in October obviously calls for cigar smoke, obviously, but the other factor at play for this 2024 matchup between longtime SEC rivals is the fact that neither has actually come into this game looking like the contenders we either thought they were coming into the year or even that we thought they were earlier this season.

After Alabama's first half against Georgia, the Crimson Tide not only nearly allowed a historic comeback by the Dawgs but then followed that up by losing at Vanderbilt and nearly losing to South Carolina. Tennessee hasn't been much better, though, as the Vols lost to Arkansas and then were pushed to overtime by Florida.

Frankly, both of these teams look quite imperfect but how they match up is fascinating. Alabama's offense has been one-dimensional, which could be feasting time for a Tennessee defense that hasn't been the issue at all, ranking second in Success Rate this season and holding every opponent under 20 points this season. But the Vols offense has been listless against SEC competition — yet, we aren't sure that the Crimson Tide defense is totally capable of stopping it based on recent weeks.

It's a fascinating matchup but, with two imperfect teams, I'm looking at the home team in Tennessee and the best unit on the field, the Vols defense, and thinking that might be enough. So with Bama being favored, give me Josh Heupel's team to get up off of the mat and pull off this upset.