Colorado is more alive than ever to make the College Football Playoff without playing
By John Buhler
At 6-2 (4-1), things are looking really good night now in Boulder for the Colorado Buffaloes. CU was on a bye this past weekend, but got a ton of help with regards to its once-slim chances of getting to Arlington. Not only did undefeated Iowa State lose for the first time this season to Texas Tech, but a team who beat them before in Kansas State suffered its second Big 12 loss of the year to Houston.
Although Big 12 favorite in undefeated BYU was on a bye week as well, Colorado is no longer an extreme dark horse to make the College Football Playoff now. Of course, the Buffs need to win out by finishing the regular season at 10-2 (8-1), as well as beat whomever in the Big 12 championship. However, they do not have to play BYU or Iowa State this season. Their next four games are winnable.
Here is a look at what Colorado has for the rest of the regular season. Could the Buffs finish at 10-2?
Date | Colorado Buffaloes opponent |
---|---|
Nov. 9 | at Texas Tech Red Raiders |
Nov. 16 | vs. Utah Utes |
Nov. 23 | at Kansas Jayhawks |
Nov. 30 | vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys |
Without question, the Buffaloes' toughest remaining game will be at Texas Tech in Lubbock next Saturday. The Red Raiders are a bowl-eligible team as well at 6-3, but not quite a serious contender to get to Arlington just yet. They might take CU's place in that discussion should they beat them, but that is neither here nor there. Colorado should be favored over Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State.
The other thing working in CU's favor is someone has to lose Farmageddon at the end of the season.
How the Colorado Buffaloes can make the College Football Playoff
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Colorado has a 13.8-percent chance of making the College Football Playoff. The Buffaloes also have a 19.3-percent chance of winning the Big 12. While they have the fourth best chance of getting in out of the Big 12, they have the third best odds of winning the league over Kansas State. Colorado has the 21st best playoff odds in the entire country.
It is pretty simple to explain how Colorado can make the playoff. If they finish the regular at 10-2 overall and 8-1 in Big 12 play, they would get in with a win over BYU, Iowa State or Kansas State in Arlington. Keep in mind that BYU is still undefeated, Iowa State has one conference loss just like Colorado, but 7-2 Kansas State has now lost twice in Big 12 play. What else needs to happen here?
The easiest way for Colorado to make it to the Big 12 title bout for what will essentially be a playoff play-in game is for CU to win out and for Kansas State to beat Iowa State in Farmageddon. That would give the Cyclones a second Big 12 loss to match Kansas State, who Colorado would get in over the Wildcats because they went 8-1 in conference play. A loss or two by BYU would only help them out.
And as far as if Colorado could get in as a 10-2 (8-1) at-large team or a 10-3 (8-1) Big 12 runner-up, it does not feel likely. A third loss probably does the Buffs in, even if it came in the 13th data point. When it comes to getting in as a 10-2 (8-1) at-large, you would need to ask yourself this: Does the Big 12 deserve two playoff teams? Better year, are there seven better at-large candidates over Colorado?
Simply, a lot would have to go wrong elsewhere in college football for Colorado to get in those ways.