Colorado may be on wrong side of College Football Playoff bubble should Buffs win out

At 6-2 (4-1) on the season, the Colorado Buffaloes are not only firmly bowl eligible, but very much alive to make the College Football Playoff. Of course, the Buffs have to win out to finish the regular season at 10-2 (8-1), play for a Big 12 championship and win it Arlington to have any shot at an automatic qualifier sport, but that's not the point. The point is Colorado is way better than last year.

However, the Buffs do have a slew of things working against them potentially getting to the Big 12 title bout. The first is they lost to fellow Big 12 contender Kansas State head-to-head. Colorado needs K-State to lose another conference game to open up an easier pathway of getting in. The second is BYU and Iowa State have yet to lose a game. Iowa State does play Kansas State later.

What makes this frustrating is Colorado stands a very good chance of winning its final four games.

The other thing working against the Buffaloes' chances of making the playoff is that their non-conference loss to Nebraska is looking worse and worse by the week. Should they go 10-2 (8-1), Colorado's chances of getting in as an at-large team are virtually zero because of who the Buffaloes' two defeats are to. This is a team that I had going 5-7, but said had an 8-4 ceiling. I was wrong here.

For the sake of argument, what all would need to happen for Colorado to actually make the playoff?

What needs to happen for Colorado to make the College Football Playoff?

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Colorado has only a 7.5-percent chance of making the playoff. It is the 26th best chance in the country. The Buffaloes have a slightly better chance at winning the Big 12 at 8.4 percent. They rank fourth among Big 12 teams in both regards, trailing BYU, Iowa State and Kansas State. Colorado has to someway overcome the head-to-head loss to K-State.

I cannot off the top of my head figure out the most plausible scenario to get Colorado to Arlington with a shot at a Big 12 championship. Colorado obviously has to win out to finish 8-1 in league play. The Buffs desperately need K-State to lose a second conference game. That could happen in Farmageddon, but that could indicate Iowa State going 12-0 (9-0). They don't play BYU this season.

Chalk is not in Colorado's favor, as the Buffs would finish in third place with a 10-2 (8-1) record, looking up at a pair of undefeated teams in BYU and Iowa State playing for a first-round bye. There is a chance both of those teams would already be in with 12-0 (9-0) marks. A loss to Iowa State in Farmageddon would have Kansas State finishing in fourth place with a 10-2 (7-2) record this season.

Ultimately, Colorado would not be in an advantageous position to get in with a 10-2 (8-1) record. Too much would be left to chance. They do not have a resume booster left on the schedule to help overcome their previous losses to Nebraska and Kansas State. There is nothing wrong with winning 10 games, but dropping a pair to traditional rivals. It just won't merit playoff inclusion for Colorado.

Colorado needs two of the three between BYU, Iowa State and Kansas State to slide before Arlington.