Commanders playoff scenarios: What Washington needs in Week 17 to win NFC East

The Washington Commanders' dramatic comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16 wasn't just one of the games of the season. It was a statement of purpose from Jayden Daniels and Co., stamping them as a sleeper in the NFC and more or less punching the team's ticket to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

Of course, it's not quite time for celebration yet; Washington hasn't officially clinched anything, after all. But at 10-5, the Commanders are in great shape entering the final two weeks of the regular season, with not just a Wild Card spot but even potentially an NFC East title on the table. Let's dive into all of the team's playoff paths.

Commanders' path to a playoff spot is crystal clear

We'll get the simplest question out of the way first. Washington's path to a playoff spot is simple: With a win over the Atlanta Falcons this weekend or a loss by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Commanders are in.

At 10-5, Washington holds the tiebreaker over the Seattle Seahawks thanks to a superior conference record, and they'll hold the conference record edge over the Los Angeles Rams as well should L.A. lose either of its final two games (which is the only way the Rams don't win the NFC West).

That just leaves the Bucs and Falcons as the only two teams that can catch the Commanders for the No. 7 seed. If Washington beats Atlanta on Sunday, they'll obviously own the head-to-head tiebreaker, and Tampa Bay (currently 8-7) will be unable to catch them in the standings. If the Commanders lose to the Falcons, they can still get in with a Bucs loss, which would eliminate Tampa Bay from NFC South contention and leave them unable to catch Washington.

How Commanders can still snatch the NFC East title

But that's not the only thing that Washington has to play for this Sunday. If the Commanders win out over the last two weeks, that puts a ton of pressure on Philly to do the same, as the Eagles are set up to lose the tiebreaker should both teams finish tied at 12-5. Philadelphia's divisional record right now is 3-1, better than Washington's mark of 3-2; but with matchups against the Cowboys and Giants on tap, two losses will drop them to 3-3 and give the Commanders an opportunity.

Granted, the Eagles should have no problem against two teams that have already started planning for the 2025 NFL Draft. But Philly now has to survive with Kenny Pickett at QB for at least one more week, and who knows what that will mean in what should be two heated divisional rivalry games.