Day 2 of the World Athletics Indoor Championships kicked off in Nanjing on Saturday morning. The session's track action consisted only of qualifying rounds, which left fans to speculate as to what superlative performances this poorly attended championship meet may produce.
Although Grant Holloway's qualifying win in the men's 60m hurdles extended his unbelievable winning streak, he's already the world record holder and holds 13 of the top 16 all-time best performances for the indoor event. Holloway has mastered his race, and a gold medal in Nanjing won't turn heads.
Josh Hoey will easily win the men's 800m final on Sunday. His semifinal performance of 1:45.23 looked so easy that it begs the question: "Can Hoey do it?" Hoey, who logged a 4.70 second season-over-season progression into his 2024 campaign, now looks prepared to dip under 1:43 indoors. He went from being written off by the track world to being on top of one of the most difficult events on the circuit.
Josh Hoey's quest for 800m world record highlights World Athletics Indoor Championships
Hoey is now the overwhelming favorite for the 800m gold. On Feb. 23, he became the No. 2 performer all-time on the short track, his 1:43.24 bested only by Wilson Kipketer's 1:42.67. All of the other marquee competitors in Nanjing are well-known and battle tested. Hoey's star is rising, and he's made front-running look easy. Even, dare I say, Rudisha-like.
Hoey is comfortable front-running and the field will be happy to let him pace them. Wasting no distance in his first lap will go a long way to shuttling him to a 50.5 or lower through 400m. Perhaps Brandon Miller, who pushed him to his excellent 1:43.24 at USA Indoor's, will again be up to the task.
Wilson Kipketer ran 1:42.67 indoors, which is still .57 beyond Hoey's epic race at USA Indoors. Hoey's penchant for going out in sub-25 and holding on for 50.5 is likely sufficient, but there's a lot placed at risk in the latter stages of the race.
Why Hoey's bid for the world record is worth mentioning is that he has a guaranteed medal here and he's a natural front-runner, so he should be able to tune his first 400m to his desired risk profile. A catastrophic blowup would still net him the bronze.
A bid for gold resembling his USAs performance would look like this:
Distance | Time (Split) |
|---|---|
200m | 24.75 |
400m | 50.25 (25.50) |
600m | 1:16.75 (26.50) |
800m | 1:43.75 (27.00) |
The path to a world record could be:
Distance | Time (Split) |
|---|---|
200m | 24.60 |
400m | 50.10 (25.50) |
600m | 1:16.35 (26.25) |
800m | 1:42.64 (26.29) |
Altogether, Hoey has a 90% chance of winning, a 20% chance of running a personal best, and a 5% chance of breaking the 1:42.67 world record. Hoey is so exciting to analyze and project because his progression is so recent and his ceiling isn't yet known. In Saturday's morning session, he showed that he's ready to find out how high that ceiling is.
Can anyone else steal the meet?
World Indoors is usually seen as a prelude to the outdoor season. It's helpful for forming early storylines and giving second-tier elites a shot at glory but it rarely brings compelling, deep matchups. This time around, some athletes just didn't want to travel to China. They saw more value in training through this championship cycle.
Very few potential performances here would be memorable as legacy-defining. To close, I'll share my thoughts on why other storylines that have yet to unfold aren't as exciting. I'll explain how Hoey's and Holloway's quests fit in.
Jakob Ingebrigtsen already owns the short track world records in the 1500m and 3000m. He's attempting the double in Nanjing, which will be a feather in his cap. But, there's no chance of either of his world records being improved considering the finals occur on back-to-back days. Jakob's entrance into this meet is a statement of confidence: He knows he's fit enough to break a late winter training block and dominate through September.
In the women's 3k, Jess Hull can beat Freweyni Hailu to take gold. Her amazing progression during the summer, which culminated in a 3:50.83 in the 1500m, means that she has what it takes to ascend the all-time list on Saturday. There's a big risk of a tactical first lap rendering the finishing time meaningless, though, and perhaps the most noteworthy prospect would be a win from Shelby Houlihan.
The women's 1500m features the world record holder, Gudaf Tsegay, who has already run 3:53.92 this year. Tsegay's record of 3:53.09 may go down as one of the untouchable records of this era (assuming Faith Kipyegon doesn't ever run indoors). It's worth mentioning that Tsegay's World Athletics points total for her 1500m PR — 1285 — is just below Josh Hoey's 1287 for his No. 2 800m. Tsegay would need a PR to outshine Hoey repeating a 1:43.24, nevermind Hoey running a world record.